The UAE shot down a missile. Crude went up 4.4%. One press release was supposed to handle this. It did not.
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Wall Street decided Friday’s records still apply.
The UAE shot down a missile. Markets shot up 0.2%.
US index futures opened higher Tuesday. ES +0.2%. NQ +0.2%. YM +102 points. The cash market on Monday lost 557 of those Dow points outright. Friday’s all-time high at SPX 7,230.12 is being treated as a checkpoint, not a peak. Then somebody read overnight Sunday: the
UAE intercepted Iranian missiles. First missile-alert activation since the April 8 ceasefire that markets celebrated as if peace had been notarised. WTI ripped 4.4% to $106.42.
Brent jumped 5.8% to $114.44. Energy was the only S&P sector that closed Monday in the green, by a tidy 0.6%. Ten of eleven sectors closed red. Energy traders, alone in the building, looked up. After the bell, Palantir delivered the strongest quarter in its 22-year history. Revenue +85% year on year.
EPS beat by 18%. Full-year guide lifted to 71% growth. Stock added 1.5%. The Rule of 40 hit 145, which is mathematically rude. Wall Street acknowledged this with a polite golf clap.
AMD reports Tuesday afternoon. April nonfarm payrolls Friday. The Senate vote on Kevin Warsh queued for the same window. The ceasefire is now defended by Patriot batteries. The rally is defended by a press release.
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Hormuz risk reignites. Tape declines comment.
Energy outperformed quietly while ten sectors panicked at the right speed.
- Premarket snapshot: ES +0.2%, NQ +0.2%, YM +102 by 06:00 ET. Monday’s cash close: SPX 7,200.75 (-0.41%), Nasdaq Composite 25,067.80 (-0.19%), Dow 48,941.90 (-1.13%, -557.37 points). Friday’s record at SPX 7,230.12 sits roughly 30 points above the futures-implied open. The Dow, briefly, attended the news in person.
- Sector rotation: Energy held alone in the green Monday at +0.6%. Ten of eleven sectors closed red. APA +4%, Diamondback Energy +3%, Marathon Petroleum +2%. SLB capped Energy gains, falling 2%, in case the sector was developing ideas. Norwegian Cruise -6.5% on a Q2 guide cut citing Middle East disruption and fuel costs. Cruise operators, it transpires, track ships.
- Earnings or guidance: Palantir reported the strongest quarter in its history Monday after-hours. Revenue $1.633B (+85% YoY). EPS $0.33 versus $0.28 consensus. US revenue +104%. Full-year 2026 guide lifted to $7.656B midpoint, +71% YoY. Shares added 1.5% in after-hours trading. AMD reports Tuesday after the close, with PFE, SHOP, MSTR, ANET, LITE on the same slate.
- Cross-asset nuance: WTI settled $106.42 Monday (+4.39%). Brent $114.44 (+5.80%). Ten-year Treasury yield sits near 4.50% after climbing 10 basis points. Dollar Index 97.54. Gold $4,965 Friday. April nonfarm payrolls land Friday May 8. Warsh confirmation queued.
📊 The chart doesn’t lie. The news does. Get my full SPX morning briefing – levels, structure, and what the tape is actually saying. [Read it here →]
Bitcoin tags 80,500. Wall Street finds receipt.
Ether reclaims 2,400. ETFs noticed late on Friday.
- Price snapshot: Bitcoin traded above $80,500 Friday, the first time since January. Ether reclaimed $2,400 the same window. XRP at $1.40. Fear and Greed Index 43, still in Fear despite the prices. Bitcoin market cap roughly $1.59 trillion. Ether near $290 billion.
- Flows and positioning: Spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $629.73M Friday in a single session, having spent the prior three days redeeming. BlackRock IBIT took $284.4M. Fidelity $213.4M. ARK Invest $88.5M. Five consecutive weeks of net inflows. AUM $103.78B. Total May 1 crypto ETF intake $731M including $101M into Ether ETFs. Late, but cheerful.
- Leadership and rotation: Ether ETFs broke a five-month outflow streak in April with $356M of net inflows. Cumulative ETH ETF inflows now $11.94B against $13.10B AUM, meaning the price has been doing the heavy lifting institutional investors did not. Bittensor led the CoinDesk 20 Friday with gains above 5%. AI-themed alts took the rotation flow.
- Catalysts and roadmap: Consensus 2026 opens Tuesday in Miami with 20,000 attendees. Saylor, Garlinghouse, Hayes and regulator Michael Selig speak, third year running. The CLARITY Act is the May regulatory catalyst. Bhutan’s Druk Holding wallet moved $287M of BTC Friday. Destination not yet confirmed. Markets, asked to wait, did so.
TL;DR: The Bottom Line
- Futures tick up 0.2% after Monday’s 557-point Dow flush. UAE intercepted Iranian missiles. The ceasefire is now defended by Patriot batteries, not the April press release.
- SPX cue: Friday’s record at 7,230 sits 30 points above implied open. AMD reports Tuesday afternoon. The bar Palantir set is now distinctly ungenerous to neighbours.
- Bitcoin tags $80,500 for the first time since January. Spot BTC ETFs took $629.7M on Friday after redeeming Monday through Wednesday. Late, but cheerful, as ever.
- Palantir delivered 85% revenue growth, beat EPS by 18%, and raised guide to $7.66B. Stock added 1.5% after-hours. Wall Street, having considered this, applauded politely.
- Watch the Warsh Senate vote, AMD guide Tuesday, Friday’s payrolls print, and Hormuz shipping data. Energy was Monday’s lone green sector. The other ten declined comment.
Meme of the Day:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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