A $1.78 trillion rocket. A 4% inflation print. Same morning.

Stock Market Edge

Chips Lead the Bounce, a Rocket Leads the Circus A relief rally assembled from de-escalation hope and a very large listing.

Premarket snapshot:
S&P 500 futures sat near flat early Friday after Thursday’s 1.75% close at 7,394.30. Nasdaq futures pointed 0.38% higher, Dow futures up 0.18%, Russell 2000 up 0.31%. The VIX, down 12.5% Thursday, held near 19.4, calm restored by decree.

Sector rotation:
Semiconductors led the recovery, which is generous given they also led the collapse. Micron bounced almost 12%, SanDisk 14%, and Intel 10% on an upgrade. Nvidia closed green. The same names that cratered the week now take credit for saving it.

Earnings or guidance:
Oracle beat and fell anyway, punished for the crime of telling investors how much it plans to spend. In 2026 the capex guidance is the earnings report, and the actual earnings report is a formality.

Cross-asset nuance:
Crude slid below $90, Brent near $89 and its lowest since March, on a deal that so far exists mostly as a sentence. Yields stayed high, the dollar firm, gold near a fresh high around $4,240. Everyone now waits for a rocket and a central banker, in that order.

📊 There’s a level on SPX I’m watching closely this morning. My full analysis briefing has it – plus what happens if we hold it, and what happens if we don’t. [Read it here →]

Crypto Market Edge

Bitcoin Bounces, the Flows Still Hold a Grudge A relief rally meets a month of record outflows and a freshly broken promise.

1. Price snapshot:
   Bitcoin traded near $63,700 early Friday, up about 3.1%, recovered from a sub-$60,000 scare last week. Ether held near $1,700. The bid was risk-on, borrowed wholesale from the same Iran headline that lifted stocks.
2. Flows & positioning:
   The price is in a better mood than the money. Spot Bitcoin ETFs bled a record $5.4 billion over four weeks before a 13-day outflow streak broke June 5 with a $3.05 million inflow, a rounding error in a party hat. Assets fell to roughly $80 billion from $104 billion.
3. Leadership & rotation:
   Capital rotated rather than left. Hyperliquid’s HYPE ETFs were the only products to dodge outflows all month, adding $12.15 million on June 5. Ether’s entire ETF rescue, a $19.3 million inflow, came from BlackRock and nobody else.
4. Catalysts & roadmap:
   Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time in four years to cover a dividend, a remarkable twist for a company whose entire pitch was never selling. MSTR sits about 72% below its 2025 peak, with December index-delisting odds near 62% and reserves down to roughly $900 million.

TL;DR – The Bottom Line

• Wall Street rallied 1.75% on a peace deal nobody has signed and inflation it chose not to notice, two separate acts of faith before most of us had breakfast.
• Futures sit near flat into the open as SpaceX prepares to become the largest IPO ever, the same week chip stocks logged their worst single day since April 2025.
• Bitcoin bounced above $63,700 on borrowed optimism, while four weeks of record ETF outflows and Strategy’s broken never-sell vow quietly disagree with the mood.
• May inflation hit 4%, the hottest in three years, which leaves Warsh hired to cut rates and walking into a meeting on Tuesday where he plainly can’t.
• A $1.78 trillion rocket debuts today and the peace remains unsigned, so Tuesday’s Fed gets to decide which of Thursday’s happy stories were actually true.

📌 Fun Fact

One waterway, a fifth of the world’s oil. The Strait of Hormuz is barely 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. About a fifth of the world’s seaborne crude squeezes through it, which is why one shipping headline can outmuscle an entire OPEC meeting.