When You Think Bullish, The Bear Pulls You Back In.

Thursday 11 June – Wall Street spent recent sessions pricing a peace that has not arrived. On Wednesday, the war sent a polite reminder. The US struck Iran for a second day, Tehran returned fire at bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, and the May CPI print landed at 4.2% YoY, the hottest in three years.

The Dow lost 1.87%, the S&P 1.62%, the Nasdaq 1.98%, the VIX rose 10%, and the 2026 rate cut quietly left the building. Some now price a rate hike. An awkward gift for Kevin Warsh, hired on the theory that AI would make everything cheaper, hosting his first FOMC next Tuesday with inflation at a three-year high.

• Pre-open futures bounce: ES +0.97% / NQ +1.49% / RTY +1.66% / YM +0.94% / VIX -7.29% to 20.61 – the bulls buggering around again ahead of the cash open
• May CPI 4.2% YoY, hottest in three years / core 2.9% (the figure the Fed actually reads) / gasoline +40.5% YoY because Hormuz stays shut / lettuce +16.4% on the month, quietly out-inflating almost everything in the basket
• US-Iran strike exchange entered day two, Tehran returning fire at Gulf bases in Kuwait and Bahrain / the April ceasefire now a ceasefire in the way a dropped vase is still technically a vase
• Sectors at war with themselves: 8 of 11 fell Wednesday led by industrials, materials, tech / Super Micro -12% while KLA +6.7% and Applied Materials +5.5% / Robinhood, sensing chaos, +8.1%
• Oracle -10% after-hours on a $20bn raise for AI – the market funds the future right up until someone mentions the invoice
• BTC near $62,200 down ~13% on the week / 13-day ETF exit hit $4.33bn (record) / Fear & Greed Index at 8 (extreme fear) / Strategy sold and called it tax planning / SpaceX prices IPO Friday
• Warsh’s first FOMC: 16-17 June / 2026 rate cut buried / 2-year yields 4.15% / some now price a hike

Market Snapshot

• ES: 7,337.25 / +70.25 (+0.97%) / NATHs 7,632.25 / morning rally typical of the recent pattern
• YM: 50,393 / +470 (+0.94%) / NATHs 51,849 / Uncle Dow joining the bounce
• NQ: 28,895.00 / +423.00 (+1.49%) / NATHs 30,807.75 / Nazquack leading the lift, as it led the smash
• RTY: 2,880.70 / +47.00 (+1.66%) / NATHs 2,952.00 / Uncle Russ leading on percentage terms
• GC: 4,114.80 / +20.70 (+0.51%) / haven bid steady
• CL: 89.57 / -2.28 (-2.48%) / off Wednesday’s rally, the bear flag potentially reshaping
• VIX: 20.61 / -1.62 (-7.29%) / easing as the bulls buggered about overnight
• BTC: 62,849.86 / +1,400.40 (+2.28%) / triangle pattern forming on the 4hr, near the bear-swing-closure zone

Tag ‘n Turn

When you think bullish, the bear pulls you back in. Bulls take hold overnight and early session, then stall and reverse mid-morning. Premium Popper banking 4 out of 5 yesterday. SPX and RUT swings staying patient. BTC bear swing closed 82K to just below 63K. CL bear flag wind knocked out, bulls only above $97.

The system is doing two things at once this week. Intraday is feasting on the bear-trap rally pattern. Swings are sitting on their hands, waiting for the conservative entries that don’t get whipped. Both right. Both deliberate.

SPX Analysis

SPX swings – the sensible wait for a more conservative entry has definitely been the right thing to do. Patience is the key here. NATHs 7,620.90. Current 7,267.00.

Over on the swings, the sensible wait for a more conservative entry to ensure we avoid the whips back and forth has definitely been the right thing to do on both SPX and RUT.

Patience is the key here.

Patience. Conservative entries. The right call.

Gamma Exposure

GEX data for Wed Jun 10 close. Cash 7,266.99 well below the gamma flip at 7,709.68. Put wall and call wall converged at 7,000. IV jumped to 18.20% from 16.20%. IV Rank 48.02%. IV Percentile 88%.

Wednesday’s CPI print and the second day of strikes pushed IV materially higher (16.20% → 18.20%) and the IV Percentile to 88% from 79%. The gamma flip has lifted to 7,709.68 (from 7,484.11 Tuesday) and the put wall and call wall have both moved to 7,000 – a notable repositioning lower from the prior 7,400 cluster.

Cash sits roughly 440 points below the flip and 270 points above the converged 7,000 wall.

RUT Analysis

RUT – same patience approach as SPX. Conservative entry the right call this week. NATHs 2,942.41. Current 2,835.46. BO Target 2,810 still ahead.

Over on the swings, the sensible wait for a more conservative entry to ensure we avoid the whips back and forth has definitely been the right thing to do on both SPX and RUT.

Patience is the key here.

Same as SPX. Patience pays. Conservative entries.

BTC Analysis

BTC – I think we’re done for the moment. Closed the bear swing initiated around the 82K level, took it down to just below the 63K level. Higher low patterns possibly forming on the daily. Above ~65K and we can start looking for the bull. Below ~58.5K and the bear run to 50K could well be back on the table. Current 62,832.

BTC – I think we’re done for the moment. I’ve closed my bear swing, which was initiated around the 82K level, and took it down to just below the 63K level.

The daily chart is looking like we might see those higher low patterns we’ve been talking about all week on the main indexes during these briefings and the live group calls.

Above approximately 65K and we can start looking for the bull. Below approximately 58.5K and the bear run to 50K could well be back on the table.

The 4hr chart shows a triangle pattern forming with the lower bound around 58,500 and the upper around 64,234, annotated as a potential cyclical bull turning point.

Bear swing closed. Higher lows possible. 65K bull. 58.5K bear.

CL (Oil) Analysis

CL giving me a headache. Initial bear swing underwater. Day trade nibble quaffed. Shorter-term swing at slightly higher entry now looking much better. Bear flag wind knocked out, possibly evolving. Daily consolidation reshaping. Remain bearish. Bulls only assessed above $97. Current 89.64.

CL is giving me a little headache as I start looking for trades. My initial bear swing is under water. A nibble on a day trade to derisk was also quaffed, and a shorter-term swing at a slightly higher price point after yesterday’s rally is looking much better.

The bear flag has had the wind blown out of it and could well be evolving, with the larger consolidation pattern on the daily charts also reshaping itself.

I remain bearish, and the bulls will be assessed above $97 should we get there.

Bear flag evolving. Still bearish. Bulls only above $97.

Rounding Off

The Tape Finally Read The Inflation Report. Wall Street spent recent sessions pricing a peace that has not arrived, and Wednesday the war sent a polite reminder – the US struck Iran for a second day, Tehran returned fire at bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, and futures, having reviewed the situation, decided to leave early.

The actual culprit was domestic. May CPI hit 4.2% YoY, the hottest in three years, with gasoline up 40.5% on the year because Hormuz remains shut. Core was a calmer 2.9% – the figure the Fed actually reads.

Traders read the headline instead and quietly buried the 2026 rate cut. Some now price a hike. An awkward gift for Kevin Warsh, hired on the theory that AI would make everything cheaper, now hosting his first FOMC next Tuesday with inflation at a three-year high.

Oracle, sensing the room, asked for $20bn to build AI after the bell and lost 10% for the cheek of asking. The market will happily fund the future right up until someone mentions the invoice. Oil rallied on the strikes and dipped on the rumour they had stopped.

Bitcoin round-tripped to 2024 prices at $62,200, the Fear & Greed Index slumped to 8, and Strategy quietly sold coins it had promised never to sell.

The lettuce in your fridge, meanwhile, is up 16.4% on the month and out-inflating almost everything in the basket.

What’s In Front Of Me Today. When you think it’s time to get bullish, the bear pulls you back in. The morning pattern continues – bulls take hold overnight, then stall and reverse mid-morning. Intraday this is a feast for Premium Popper – 5 trades yesterday, 4 wins, 1 loss.

On the swings, the conservative-entry patience on SPX and RUT has been exactly right – the whips back and forth get avoided when the entry is conservative rather than first available. The BTC bear swing closed cleanly – initiated around 82K, exited just below 63K, and the daily now looks like the higher-low pattern we’ve been discussing on the indexes all week may be setting up on Bitcoin too. 65K opens the bull, 58.5K opens the bear-to-50K continuation.

CL is the headache – initial bear swing under water, day-trade nibble quaffed, shorter-term entry at a higher price now looking better, bear flag wind knocked out, consolidation reshaping. Still bearish on CL. Bulls only get assessed above $97.

Patience on the swings.

The intraday opportunities take care of themselves.

Expert Insights

“I know where I’m getting out before I get in.”
– Bruce Kovner, Market Wizards (Jack D. Schwager, HarperBusiness, 1989), public

The clean BTC bear swing exit yesterday is the working example. The trade was initiated around the 82K level. The exit was taken just below the 63K level. That’s the kind of trade where the exit was as much a part of the plan as the entry – and the discipline to take it when the level arrived is what turned an open position into a banked one.

Kovner ran Caxton Associates and made his name on macro positions held over months or years. The principle scales down. Premium Popper trades that last an hour need an exit plan before they begin. Swing trades that last weeks need an exit plan before they begin. The BTC bear swing that ran from May into June needed an exit plan before it began. The CL trades currently giving me a headache will be resolved the same way – the levels are marked, the system handles the rest. The exit is not where the trade ends. The exit is where the plan started.

[Source: Bruce Kovner via Jack D. Schwager,
Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders (HarperBusiness, 1989)]