Futures Read the War Headlines and Decided to Leave Early

Stock Market Edge

The Tape Finally Read the Inflation Report 4.2% walks in and the rate cut walks out.

Premarket snapshot:
Futures pointed lower across ES, NQ and YM on the second day of strikes, anchored to Wednesday’s close: S&P 7,266.99, Nasdaq 25,169.50, Dow 49,918.78. The VIX rose 10%, which is the market’s version of mild concern. Havens, reading the room, quietly bid.

Sector rotation:
Eight of eleven sectors fell, led by industrials, materials and tech. Semis could not pick a lane: Super Micro dropped 12% whilst KLA rose 6.7% and Applied Materials added 5.5%, a sector visibly at war with itself. Robinhood, sensing chaos, gained 8.1%.

Earnings or guidance:
Oracle fell more than 10% after hours on a $20 billion raise for AI, proving the market will happily fund the future right up until someone mentions the invoice. SpaceX prices its IPO Friday, asking a tired tape to summon enthusiasm on cue.

Cross-asset nuance:
Brent neared $94 and WTI $91 before easing once Washington declared the strikes complete, because nothing soothes crude like a war being briefly paused. EIA logged a seventh straight crude draw of 7.2 million barrels, a genuinely tight backdrop the tape keeps trying to ignore. The 2026 rate cut, meanwhile, has left no forwarding address.

📊 There’s a level on SPX I’m watching closely this morning. My full analysis briefing has it – plus what happens if we hold it, and what happens if we don’t. [Read it here →]

Crypto Market Edge

Bitcoin’s Round Trip to Nowhere Never-sell becomes sold, fear becomes 8.

Price snapshot:
Bitcoin traded near $62,200, down about 13% in a week and back at prices it first posted in 2024, having toured $80,000 in May and returned with the receipts. Ether sat near $1,910, keeping pace on the way down if nothing else.

Flows & positioning:
Spot BTC ETFs shed $4.33 billion across a record 13-day exit, $3.3 billion of it from BlackRock’s IBIT alone. Ether funds managed 17 straight outflow days, a record nobody bothered to frame. Forced sellers cleared $1.8 billion in a single June session.

Leadership & rotation:
Money kept rotating from crypto into AI stocks, which is one way to flee a drawdown straight into another. Alts thinned out and leverage got punished. The Fear & Greed Index slumped to 8, comfortably inside extreme fear and in no apparent hurry to leave. Relief bounces keep arriving and keep getting sold.

Catalysts & roadmap:
Strategy sold Bitcoin and called it tax planning, which is both true and the quiet funeral of never-sell as a slogan. The hot CPI removes the rate cut crypto was counting on. That leaves Warsh’s first FOMC on June 16 and 17 as the next thing on the calendar to dread, assuming the war grants it top billing.

TL;DR – The Bottom Line

• Futures left early as US strikes on Iran hit day two and Tehran answered at Gulf bases, because pricing peace works right up until the peace files for a second war.
• May CPI hit a three-year high of 4.2%, burying the 2026 rate cut and handing Warsh a hike debate at the first meeting he was hired to spend cutting.
• Oracle asked for $20 billion to build AI and the market docked it 10% for the audacity, having decided capex on faith is last season’s look.
• Bitcoin round-tripped to 2024 at $62,200 as a record 13-day ETF exit and a quietly broken never-sell vow drained whatever bull case was left.
• Oil rallied on the bombs and dipped on the rumour they had stopped; today asks whether dip-buyers have the stomach for a third surprise.

📌 Fun Fact

The Salad Tax Inflation came for the crisper drawer.

In May’s CPI report, lettuce prices jumped 16.4% on the month, one of the steepest single-item increases in the entire basket. Gasoline grabbed the headlines; the side salad quietly out-inflated almost everything.