103 Stocks Hit 1-Year Lows on the Exchange That Rose 1.05%

1,403 Dissenters and Nobody Counted Them The index went up. The market went down. Both are true.

Monday’s tape had two answers and they were not close. The S&P 500 added 51.23 points, 0.6634%. The Nasdaq Composite put on 1.0535%. And 1,403 New York Stock Exchange issues closed lower against 1,282 that closed higher, an advance/decline ratio of 0.914, not a rally in any sense a shareholder would recognise. New lows beat new highs 77 to 40 in New York and 103 to 47 on the Nasdaq.

We are not calling the Composite a record. Two wires already have. A record is a superlative, and a superlative with no dated series behind it is a vibe with a decimal point. We hold no closing-level window for it and none we could reach, so the word stays out until it arrives with evidence. What we hold is this: 103 Nasdaq names closed at a one-year low on the session its index allegedly made history.

Ten of eleven sector proxies rose, which reads like confirmation until you remember a proxy is weighted by size and a stock count is not. One measure asked the largest companies. The other asked everybody. Three coupon auctions price by Thursday into a 20-year charging 5.70%.

The One That Mattered

0.914. One number, and the only figure on Monday’s scoreboard that counted every participant rather than weighting them by what they own. On the New York Stock Exchange 1,403 issues fell against 1,282 that rose. On the Nasdaq, on the very same session and the very same rate move, 2,673 rose against 2,290 that fell. Two venues, one cost of money, two different verdicts, and both printed more new 1-year lows than new highs whilst they disagreed. So here is the question. If the cost of money rose at every maturity, why did the two exchanges disagree about what that meant? We went down the rabbit hole in today’s Macro Edge: https://antivestor.com/macro-edge

Stock Market Edge

The Curve Charged Everybody More and 1,403 Stocks Paid It A sector count of 10 tells you about size, not about participation

Premarket snapshot:

December futures are doing almost nothing, which after Monday counts as consistency. The 02:30 ET capture, from the 5-minute bar stamped 06:30 UTC and read twice, has ES at 7,840.25, up 0.1789%, and NQ at 31,387.25, up 0.2219%. December ES sits near 52.3 points above cash, so the two levels are not comparable.

Sector rotation:

Materials led at 1.3099%, communications 1.1693%, energy 1.0029%. Real estate was the solitary decliner at 0.3431%. Technology managed 0.5605% against the Nasdaq-100’s 0.8716%, finishing 7th of the eleven proxies that are supposed to be validating the day.

Earnings or guidance:

Constellation Brands reports after today’s close, Levi Strauss tomorrow, PepsiCo Thursday and Delta Friday. Two of the four carry conflicting consensus figures, so we carry none.

Cross-asset nuance:

Every tenor closed flat or higher, 2s10s widening to 47 basis points. The VIX gained 0.21 point to 15.52 on an up day, the volatility market declining to agree with the equity market. November crude settled 89.43, down 1.8439%, and at the capture all four December contracts sat under 0.3%.

Crypto Market Edge

A Figure From 4 Days Ago Grew 158.2 Million Overnight 89.8 million left on Monday, and that is not necessarily final either

Price snapshot:

Bitcoin closed 85,753.62 on the 00:00 UTC mark, down 0.8819%, and ether 2,709.64, down 0.6235%. Our two feeds agreed to 0.005434% and 0.001476%, the closest reading of the tracked run. The prices were dull. The plumbing was immaculate.

Flows and positioning:

US spot bitcoin funds showed 89.8 million dollars out on Monday and ether funds 18.9 million. Neither is marked. Nine of twelve bitcoin cells print zero and ten of eleven ether cells do the same, and a row that balances out of a single issuer is not a complete row.

Leadership and rotation:

And so to 2 October, a figure this letter published as 31.7 million dollars in and which now reads 189.9 million. The difference, 158.2 million, is one issuer’s cell arriving four days late. Our own flow shot died on that series last Friday, and we said so in public.

Catalysts and roadmap:

Bitcoin, ether, Solana, XRP and Dogecoin are absent from all three attention boards. Volume on the majors is low to normal, so the crowd has not fled. It has wandered off.

TL;DR

• The S&P 500 gained 0.6634% and 1,403 NYSE issues fell against 1,282 that rose. Breadth read 0.914, and the scoreboard asked the wrong population.
• Nobody here is calling the Composite a record, because a superlative with no dated series behind it is a vibe. 103 Nasdaq names hit one-year lows regardless.
• Money got dearer at every maturity. The 20-year closed 5.70% and the 10-year 5.31%, and the two exchanges could not agree on whether that was bad news.
• ISM services employment cleared 50 by a tenth, at 50.1 from 47.8, three days after payrolls printed 29,000. The gauges are not reading the same month.
• Our 2 October bitcoin flow figure restated from 31.7 million dollars to 189.9 million. A row missing its largest issuer was not nearly complete at all.

Fun Fact

Treasury Will Sell You 29 Years and 10 Months The reopening calendar does not round up out of politeness

Thursday’s bond appears in Treasury’s own auction records with the term “29-Year 10-Month”, and Wednesday’s note as “9-Year 10-Month”. A reopening sells more of a security that already exists, so the term string records what is actually left on the clock rather than what the thing was christened. Anybody searching that calendar for a 30-year will find nothing at all.