3 Records Closed and 56 Nasdaq Names Hit 1-Year Lows

Utilities Led the AI Rally and Technology Came 6th of 11 XLU added 2.9772%, XLK managed 0.5325%, and 3 indices closed at records anyway

Yesterday this letter refused to use the word record. Two wire services had used it; we had no dated series to test it against, so we published 103 one-year lows instead and said that a record with no window behind it is a vibe with a decimal point. Today the window came back on a single query: 9,257 sessions to 2 January 1990, highest level traded inside it 27,544.0653. Tuesday closed 27,599.79. So today’s record is licensed. The window we needed yesterday existed too, and we did not go and get it.

So here is what the word is worth. Three indices closed at record closes on the windows held, the Composite and the Nasdaq-100 on 9,257 sessions to 1990 and the S&P 500 on the 2,579 its own feed carries from July 2016. The Russell 2000 fell 0.591407%. On the exchange that printed the record, 56 stocks hit one-year lows and 53 hit one-year highs. The whole gain arrived before the bell: four indices printed a session low above Monday’s close, and the S&P 500’s low was its opening price.

Two of this week’s three coupons are still to come, and the September minutes land at 14:00 ET today.

The One That Mattered

The spine is 1.034072, and it is the number that asked every stock rather than weighting them by size. 2,519 Nasdaq issues rose, 2,436 fell, a margin of 83 on an exchange of thousands. Up volume beat down volume 1.619909 to 1 on the same session. So the money was emphatic and the stocks were almost exactly undecided, and the index reported the money. If an index can set a record close whilst more of its own stocks make new lows than new highs, what is that record measuring? We went down the rabbit hole in today’s Macro Edge. https://antivestor.com/macro-edge

Stock Market Edge

Everything Behaved Like Something Else A defensive sector made the aggressive bet, and the chip index missed the chip rally

Premarket snapshot:

At the 02:30 ET capture, 07:30 UK, December ES sat at 7,876.25, up 0.028575% on its 7,874.00 settlement, and December NQ at 31,470.75, down 0.039704%. December YM fell 0.142813% and December RTY 0.263324%. December ES carries 55.07 points of basis over cash.

Sector rotation:

Utilities led at 2.9772%, more than five times technology’s 0.5325%, which finished 6th of 11. Health care fell 0.1673% and was the only decliner. The most defensive of the eleven proxies delivered the largest move of the eleven, on a session when the index measuring semiconductors underperformed the S&P 500. These are SPDR ETF proxies at tier 2, not cap-weighted sector indices, and the naming committee did not plan for either part of that.

Earnings or guidance:

Constellation Brands closed up 2.0828% at 115.67 and then reported. Two routes disagree about whether it reaffirmed or missed its outlook, so we are repeating neither. Levi Strauss is expected today on three corroborating routes.

Cross-asset nuance:

The VIX fell 3.2861% to 15.01, its lowest close since 25 September on the window held. Treasury published no yield curve for Tuesday on three cache-busted reads across two endpoints, so the 20-year’s 5.70% and the 10-year’s 5.31% are Monday’s. The dollar fell 0.26444% and the euro supplied 0.18735 of it.

Crypto Market Edge

One Complex Showed Its Working and the Other Sent an Estimate 118.8 million arrived with twelve receipts. 201.9 million left with one.

Price snapshot:

Bitcoin marked 85,543.78 at the 00:00 UTC mark, down 0.244701%, and ether 2,697.42, down 0.450982%. Ether fell about 1.8 times as far. Two rival feeds agreed to 0.004688% on bitcoin, the tightest of the seven readings we hold on it, and to 0.00519% on ether, where we hold no series.

Flows and positioning:

US spot bitcoin funds took $118.8m: IBIT 122.0, MSBT 7.8, Grayscale’s BTC 11.0 out, every cell numeric on two independent reads. Ether funds lost $201.9m, all of it one issuer, and one of three reads did not show the row at all, so it is recorded provisional and is not marked.

Leadership and rotation:

Solana returned at crypto rank 5 and Dogecoin at 6, ending two editions with all five majors off every board. Bitcoin, ether and XRP are still absent at depth 25, confirmed by the route’s own empty trending shape rather than by our failing to look.

Catalysts and roadmap:

Monday’s ether row grew by 31.9m when its largest issuer turned up, which is the third edition running that a balanced row turned out to be missing most of itself. Normalised volume on the majors reads low to normal. Nobody left. They are just elsewhere.

TL;DR

• Three indices closed at records whilst 2,436 Nasdaq stocks fell. Breadth read 1.034072, which is 83 issues from nothing having happened at all.
• Nasdaq new lows beat new highs 56 to 53 on the exchange that printed its highest close in the 9,257 sessions the series actually holds.
• Utilities added 2.9772% and technology 0.5325%, 6th of 11 on ETF proxies. The most defensive sector delivered the largest move of the eleven.
• Treasury published no yield curve for Tuesday on three cache-busted reads across two endpoints, so every yield here is dated Monday 5 October.
• Bitcoin funds took 118.8 million on a row with twelve receipts. Ether funds lost a provisional 201.9 million on a row with one, and Monday’s moved 31.9.

Fun Fact

The Average Worker Grossed 1,300.66 Dollars a Week In the month the economy added 29,000 jobs, that is what a 34.4-hour week bought the people who had one.

September’s average hourly earnings came in at $37.81 and the average workweek at 34.4 hours, which multiplies out to $1,300.66 of gross weekly pay. Both figures reach us through a relay rather than the primary release, which is why they are stated as relayed.