ORB20 Plus VWAP Kickback Delivers 2 Wins While Students Stack a Dozen More
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
and today the market reminded me why we trade what we see, not what we think.
This morning’s briefing? I expected a narrow range. Maybe an inside day. Upper wicks everywhere suggested consolidation.
The market’s response? Hold my beer.
RUT decided to move. The setups triggered. The premium got collected. Two trades on RUT for me, and nearly a dozen students knocked it out of the park on both SPX and RUT.
This is why systematic beats predictive. Every. Single. Time.
Let’s break down what actually happened.
DeBriefing: Trade Summary
| Field | Trade 1 | Trade 2 |
|---|---|---|
| Ticker | $RUT.X | $RUT.X |
| Strategy | Premium Popper | Premium Popper |
| Direction | Bull | Bull |
| Setup | ORB20 Breakout | VWAP Kickback |
| Setup Grade | A+ | A+ |
| Index Move | $8.00 | $8.00 |
| Premium Collected | $1.20 | – |
| Buyback Price | $0.50 | – |
| Return on Capital | 58.3% | 60.3% |
| Status | ✅ WINNER | ✅ WINNER |
So much for the inside day.
In this mornings briefing I was expecting prices to consolidate.
The upper wicks on yesterday’s dailies suggested exhaustion.
Narrow range.
Maybe nothing to do.
As is the way of things, that never transpired. And we have to play the hand of cards we’re dealt.
Trade 1: The Classic ORB20
Right out the gate.
Classic ORB20 breakout with a further directional bias – price was above the 2-day VWAP, so we’re bullish. The setup triggered, the entry was clean, and RUT decided to move.
A fast move in and out.
$1.20 collected. Bought back for $0.50.
58.3% ROC.
Trade 2: The VWAP Kickback
After the first move, price subsequently retraced to the current day’s VWAP.
Then it kicked back.
That kickback provided the entry. The software tools picked up the setup. Same story, different trigger.
60.3% ROC.
The Trades
Trade 1 – ORB20 breakout, bullish bias confirmed above 2-day VWAP. Fast entry, fast exit.
58.3% ROC.
Trade 2 – VWAP retracement and kickback. Patient entry on the pullback.
60.3% ROC.
Combined? 118.6% ROC to start the week properly.
What Made This Work
The morning briefing said expect nothing.
The market said otherwise.
But here’s the thing – it didn’t matter what I expected. The system doesn’t care about my predictions. The system cares about setups.
ORB20 triggered?
Take the trade.
VWAP kickback?
Take the trade.
The proven options strategy allows me to be wrong about the macro picture and still get paid. That’s the entire point.
Two A+ setups.
Two entries.
Two wins.
Done.
Student Wins
And this is where it gets good.
Nearly a dozen students posting wins today across both SPX and RUT. This is what replication looks like.
| Name | Ticker | Result | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richard H. | SPX | 50% ROC | Clean execution |
| Zach | RUT | Win | “RUT PP FTW” |
| Andy D. | RUT | 50% ROC | First of three |
| Chris T. | RUT | Win | Popper executed |
| Colin H. | RUT | Win | 1DTE cashed at 0.30 + ORB20 |
| Richard H. | RUT | 50% ROC | VWAP trade – “bit of a grind but happy” |
| Andy D. | RUT | 62% ROC | Bouncing off 1-day VWAP |
| Andy D. | SPX | 55% ROC | Bouncing off 2-day VWAP |
| Duncan G. | SPX | 50% ROC | VWAP bounce + second breakout |
Andy D.’s Full Day:
- RUT #1: 50% ROC
- RUT #2: 62% ROC (1-day VWAP bounce)
- SPX #1: 55% ROC (2-day VWAP bounce)
- Plus “lottery tickets still out there”
“Learned SO much the past few months. Some painful losses early on, but kept diggin’. Thank so much Phil!” – Andy D.
“You’re changing lives out here @Mr Phil Newton!” – Zach
*Screen shots below
The Lifestyle Angle
Expected an inside day. Got 119% ROC instead.
The students replicated. The system delivered. The predictions were wrong but the profits were right.
This is why we don’t trade predictions. We trade setups.
PopPop.
The Stats
| Metric | Result |
|---|---|
| Bull Win Rate | 97.3% (36/37) |
| Bear Win Rate | 95.8% (23/24) |
| Total Win Rate | 96.7% (59/61) |
| Status | BREAKOUT! (30 days) |
Win streak continues. Students replicating. System delivering.
Looking Ahead
Was wrong about the inside day. Was right about taking the setups.
That’s the difference between prediction and systematic execution.
See what tomorrow brings.
Start the Week Right
96.7% win rate. Students replicating. Premium collecting.
The system doesn’t care what you expect. It cares what you execute.
Ready to stop predicting and start collecting?
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
p.s. There are 3 ways I can help you…
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