Friday Flushes Bears, Weekend Cancels Crash, Mag7 Looks Toppy | SPX Market Briefing | 13 Oct 2025

Monday brings the aftermath of Friday’s massive bear flush, overnight futures gap cancelling crash dreams, and proper confusion requiring systematic data collection across multiple timeframes.

Current Multi-Market Status:

• SPX: ~100 point gap higher expected if futures hold
• Friday’s Move: Biggest one-day bear flush in ages with healthy bear profits banked
• Overnight Action: No follow-through continuation – unusual and suspicious
• Mag7 Weekly Analysis: Toppy double tops and engulfing bars everywhere
• Personal Sentiment: Remains bearish despite gap higher
• Monday Strategy: Patience before bull boarding, inside day likely, scalping fills time

The Friday Bear Flush

Friday delivered one of the biggest one-day bear moves in recent memory. Those positioned correctly in bear boots walked away with healthy profits whilst the unprepared wondered what the hell just happened.

Systematic bear positioning from upper range boundaries paid exactly as framework logic suggested. When price flushes that hard from resistance, the mathematics rewards proper positioning beautifully.

Weekend Dreams: Black Monday scenarios and Scrooge McDuck coin swimming occupied the unconscious processing centres. The subconscious knows what it wants.

The Crash Cancellation Mystery

Overnight futures showing approximately 100 point gap higher. If this holds through the open, crash dreams get postponed indefinitely whilst markets do that annoying thing where they ignore perfectly good selling opportunities.

Here’s what raises systematic eyebrows: No overnight follow-through after that massive flush.

When markets drop that hard, continuation typically follows. Sellers pile on. Momentum builds. Fear spreads. Instead? Radio silence. Gap higher. Move along, nothing to see here.

That feels unusual. Suspicious even. The kind of price action that makes systematic traders collect more data points rather than jump to conclusions.

The Recovery or Dead Cat Bounce Question

I’m not entirely convinced we’re done with the bear. This could be genuine recovery, or it could be a dead cat bounce with excellent marketing.

As always when confused, I tend to look at more stuff and collect mental data points. Systematic approaches handle confusion through additional analysis rather than emotional positioning.

This time: Examining the Mag7 (or whatever the talking heads are calling the top stocks of the moment).

The Mag7 Weekly Chart Analysis

The weekly chart snapshot looks “a little toppy” to put it mildly.

Double Tops Galore: Everywhere you look, price appears to have kissed resistance twice and decided that was quite enough thank you very much.

Engulfing Bars and Spiky Thingamajigs: Those fancy reversal candles that technical analysts get excited about are scattered across multiple charts like warning signs on a motorway.

The Exception: Alphabet (Google) to my humble eyeball mark 1 looks more like a retracement in the context of an uptrend. The rest? They look like they’ve run their course (for now at least).

The Earnings Accounting Onion

Earnings arrive in the latter part of the month for all the Mag7 darlings. This could be a fun and telling time to see if there will be a few hits or misses when the accounting onion gets peeled back a little.

Markets can ignore technical signals. They cannot ignore actual earnings disappointments. Numbers don’t care about sentiment or momentum or who’s trending on social media.

The toppy weekly charts combined with upcoming earnings create an interesting systematic setup: Either the numbers validate the price action and we break higher, or the numbers disappoint and those double tops become proper reversal patterns.

For now, my own personal sentiment remains bearish.

The Monday Patience Protocol

Back over on the short term SPX chart, a little patience may be required today before jumping on the bull train.

Inside Day Likely: After Friday’s massive range and Monday’s gap higher, an inside day consolidation seems probable.

Retest Potential: An attempt at retesting Friday’s lows would get us back to more sensible levels to think about proper bull setups. Gap fills happen. Especially suspicious ones without continuation follow-through.

Scalping Strategy: A little scalping may fill the time between waiting for proper systematic entry levels. When confused about larger timeframes, smaller timeframe opportunities still present themselves.

The frameworks don’t demand immediate action. They permit patience when price action creates uncertainty. Sometimes the best trade is waiting for the next one that makes systematic sense.

Today’s Systematic Plan:

• SPX: Monitor gap hold/fill behaviour – inside day likely with retest potential
• Position Bias: Personal sentiment remains bearish despite overnight gap higher
• Entry Protocol: Patience before bull boarding – wait for sensible setup levels
• Mag7 Watch: Weekly toppy patterns ahead of earnings onion peeling
• Tactical Approach: Scalping fills waiting time whilst larger picture clarifies
• Confusion Response: Collect more data points rather than forcing directional bias