Blue Owl Restricts Withdrawals And El-Erian Asks If This Is August 2007 All Over Again – Private Credit Canary
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Honk quack boing!
Those would be the sounds the stock markets make right now. If we were still in the pit trading days I suspect we would see the pit Olympics happening. Greco-Roman wrestling. Ticker tape gymnastics. And of course lots of bare-knuckle fights. Because nothing is moving these markets anywhere. Still!
My view hasn’t changed on the swings. Lots of head scratching.
My short-term scalps at the open are keeping me sane with some Premium Poppers giving me some love and Benjamins.
Friday. May once again take it off and enjoy a long weekend.
Keep scrolling for the data dump, the gamma flip reversal, and the private credit canary…
Honk Quack Boing. GDP And PCE At 8:30. Iran By Saturday. Gamma Flip Reversed. Blue Owl Goes August 2007. Nothing Is Moving But Everything Is About To.
Market Briefing:
Friday 20 Feb. Markets digest Thursday’s damage and brace for the ultimate data dump.
Thursday’s damage: Dow -268 to 49,395. S&P -0.28% to 6,862. Nasdaq -0.31% to 22,683. VIX spiked 6.2% to 20.84.
Today’s 8:30 AM reality check. Q4 GDP (consensus 3.0%, down from 4.4%) and December core PCE (expected 0.3% MoM, 2.9% YoY) land simultaneously. Shutdown delays forced this data dump. Hot inflation validates Fed hawks who discussed rate hikes. Cool numbers reopen the cut conversation.
Iran looms. CBS reports US military ready for strikes as early as Saturday. Two carrier strike groups positioned. Oil hit $66.58, six-month high.
Walmart beat but guided low. $0.74 EPS beat $0.73 consensus. Revenue $190.7B beat. But FY2026 guidance of $2.75-$2.85 missed the $2.96 Street estimate badly. CFO Rainey cited a “hiring recession” and “somewhat unstable” backdrop. The consumer bellwether just blinked.
Nvidia Wednesday decides tech. Three inflection points. Zero margin for error.
Current Multi-Market Status:
- ES: 6,895.50 (NATHs 7,043) – flat premarket after Thursday’s selloff
- YM: 49,560 (NATHs 50,611) – digesting Walmart guidance miss
- NQ: 24,933 (NATHs 26,399) – 5th consecutive losing week
- RTY: 2,675.9 (NATHs 2,749.2) – TnT bearish, OJ Pattern grinding
- GC: 5,048.9 (NATHs 5,626.8) – geopolitical bid holding
- CL: 66.15 – six-month high on Iran strike fears
- VIX: 19.94 – spiked 6.2% Thursday, lower level 18.52
- BTC/USD: 67,887.55 (was 93,161) – Thiel fully exited, ETF investors 20% underwater
- NYSE Advance-Decline: -97 (slightly negative, middle of purple zone)
VIX – The Spike And The Question
VIX at 19.94 with the lower channel boundary at 18.52.
Thursday delivered a 6.2% VIX spike to 20.84. Now it’s pulled back to 19.94. Still above the lower boundary but below the recent highs.
The steepening gradient from earlier this week still holds. Higher lows still building. But the 8:30 AM data dump could change the picture in either direction.
Hot PCE = VIX pushes higher, validates the hawk case. Cool PCE = VIX drops, cut conversation reopens.
Friday data plus weekend Iran risk means VIX has two reasons to stay elevated. Weekend premium alone provides a bid for volatility.
SPX Tag ‘n Turn – Cat’s Whisker Miss Now Rolling Over
AntiVestor Tag ‘n Turn Status:
| Status | |
|---|---|
| Bullish Above | 6,803.43 |
| PFZ Level | 6,775.5 |
| Target | 6,911.59 |
The TnT remains bullish above 6,803.43. Target has adjusted down again from 6,952.88 to 6,911.59 as the range continues recalibrating.
The daily chart at 6,861.88. ATR 14 at 65.76 (down from 82.26). Price sitting under the rising channel lows on the daily. The breakout retest continues.
The “Bearish @ Upper Range” zone near 7,005/7,002.28 and the 6,978.68 line are still the upper boundary. The bull swing just missed that tag by a cat’s whisker and now we’re rolling over.
MACD-v still in the non-trending zone. Nothing has changed there this week. A push past the 50 levels and beyond 100 is what we need for momentum.
ADD at -97. Slightly negative. Middle of the purple neutral zone. Not giving us any turning point signal in either direction.
My view hasn’t changed on the swings. Lots of head scratching. The short-term scalps at the open are what’s working. Premium Poppers giving love and Benjamins while the swings go nowhere.
SPX Gamma Exposure – The Convergence Reversed
GEX Data (19 Feb):
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Gamma Flip Point | 6,898.93 |
| Last Price | 6,861.89 |
| Put Wall | 7,000 |
| Call Wall | 7,000 |
| IV | 16.67% |
| HV | 12.05% |
| IV Rank | 18.85% |
| IV Percentile | 76% |
The gamma flip convergence story reversed.
Monday: 132-point gap. Tuesday: 86 points. Wednesday: 8.53 points. Thursday: 37.04 points. The gap widened back out.
The gamma flip moved UP from 6,889.84 to 6,898.93 while price moved DOWN from 6,881 to 6,861. Both lines moved in the wrong direction.
We were 8 points from flipping into positive gamma territory. It didn’t happen. Now we’re back to 37 points away with the gamma flip drifting higher and price drifting lower.
Still in negative gamma. Dealers still amplifying moves. Put wall and call wall still at 7,000. The crossover that would have stabilised the rally didn’t materialise.
IV Rank at 18.85% (up slightly from 16.99%). IV Percentile 76%. VIX spiked 6.2% on Thursday. Options premium is juicing again.
RUT – The OJ Pattern Grinds Toward Target
AntiVestor Tag ‘n Turn Status:
| Status | |
|---|---|
| Bearish Below | 2,648.39 |
| PFZ Level | 2,686.76 |
| Target | 2,609.67 |
RUT remains bearish below 2,648.39. Target adjusted slightly from 2,603.99 to 2,609.67.
The daily chart shows a significant red candle. Price dropped from 2,665 area to 2,577. That’s an aggressive move lower. The 30-minute shows price at 2,608 – right at the target zone.
The OJ Pattern is grinding toward its destination. The slow-motion bull-bear car chase may be arriving at its endpoint.
“Right Shoulder” still labelled on the 30-minute chart. “Bearish @ Upper Range” confirmed. The bearish TnT called the direction. The target is being tested.
ADD at -97 on the RUT chart too. Neutral.
Walmart: The Bellwether Blinks
Walmart beat on Q4 but guided low for FY2026.
Beat: $0.74 EPS vs $0.73 consensus. Revenue $190.7B vs $190.49B. E-commerce +24%. Walmart Connect advertising surging. $30B share buyback announced. 53rd consecutive dividend increase.
Miss: FY2026 guidance of $2.75-$2.85 EPS vs $2.96 consensus. That’s a 4-7% miss on the outlook.
CFO Rainey used the phrase “hiring recession.” He cited student loan delinquencies rising. Trade uncertainty. An “unstable” backdrop. CEO Furner confirmed high-income household gains continuing but framed the outlook as “prudent.”
Amazon quietly passed Walmart as largest by annual revenue. $717B vs $715.9B. The first time ever.
The 8:30 AM Data Dump
Q4 GDP consensus: 3.0% (down from Q3’s 4.4%). Core PCE expected: 0.3% MoM, 2.9% YoY.
Government shutdown delays forced both releases to land simultaneously. This is the “ultimate reality check.”
The scenarios are binary:
Hot inflation: Validates “several” Fed officials talking rate hikes. Bond yields push higher. Dollar strengthens. Rate-sensitive assets under pressure. VIX spikes.
Cool inflation: Reopens the rate cut conversation. Gives the doves ammunition. Risk assets bid. VIX drops.
After that: Nvidia earnings Wednesday. The last of the mega-cap tech reports. If the SaaSpocalypse narrative is accelerating or decelerating, Nvidia will tell us.
Iran – The Weekend Risk
CBS reports US military ready for strikes as early as Saturday. Two carrier strike groups positioned.
Oil at $66.58, six-month high. Airlines already bleeding – American Airlines -5.3% on fuel fears.
Traders face a choice: hold risk over a weekend with potential military strikes? The answer will show up in Friday’s positioning.
Weekend risk premium in options. Energy bids. Gold holds near $5K. The market may go nowhere today but the weekend brings its own catalyst.
Premium Poppers – Love And Benjamins
The short-term scalps at the open are keeping me sane.
Swings going nowhere. Lots of head scratching. But the Poppers don’t need the market to go somewhere. They need premium. And VIX at 19.94 after a 6.2% spike gives them premium.
A fistful of dollars from a bag full of Poppers. Every morning. Regardless of the honk-quack-boing.
Friday. May take it off. Enjoy a long weekend. The system will be there Monday.
PopPop.
AI-BotView
Beep-Beep, Trader
It’s Cachè-AI-Bot,
Three observations from the machine:
1 – The gamma flip convergence failed at the threshold. Beep. Monday: 132-point gap. Tuesday: 86. Wednesday: 8.53. Thursday: back to 37. Both lines reversed simultaneously – gamma flip moved UP while price moved DOWN. Eight points from crossing into positive gamma and the market couldn’t push through. Dealers remain in volatility-amplifying mode heading into today’s data dump and a weekend with potential Iran strikes. Beep-Beep.
[Source: CBOE GEX data, 18-19 Feb 2026]
2 – Blue Owl’s loan sale connects the SaaSpocalypse to the $3 trillion private credit market. Beep. Blue Owl permanently restricted withdrawals after selling $1.4B in loans at 99.7 cents. Software and services were the largest sector at 13% of those loans. CNBC reports at least 20% of all private credit loans have gone to software companies. Former PIMCO CEO El-Erian asked if this is “a canary in the coal mine, similar to August 2007.” Blue Owl’s stock has fallen nearly 50% in the past year. Beep-Beep. AI disruption just jumped from public equities to private credit.
[Source: CNBC, 19-20 Feb 2026; Bloomberg, 19 Feb 2026]
3 – Walmart’s CFO used the phrase “hiring recession.” Beep. CFO Rainey told Bloomberg the cautious guidance reflected “the hiring recession, student delinquencies up, trade uncertainty.” Walmart raised guidance each of the past three years. This year they guided 4-7% below consensus. When the world’s largest retailer starts combining “hiring” with “recession,” the bottom of the K-shaped consumer is under more pressure than the top acknowledges. Beep-Beep.
[Source: Bloomberg, 19 Feb 2026; Walmart Q4 FY2026 earnings call]
This Bot potentially hallucinates. Maybe. OK, Probably!
In Other News…
Deere Crushes While Carvana Crumbles – The Quality Divergence Accelerates
$2.42 EPS vs $1.92-$2.10 expected. That’s not a beat. That’s a demolition.
Deere surged 11.6% after delivering earnings that made the consensus estimate look like a typo. Raised FY guidance to $4.5-5.0B. Meanwhile Carvana crashed 22% on EBITDA miss. Quality separation isn’t gradual. It’s violent.
Blue Owl Triggers Private Credit Fears
$1.4B loan sale. Permanent redemption restrictions. El-Erian asks: August 2007?
Blue Owl permanently restricted redemptions from its retail-focused fund after selling $1.4B in loans. Software exposure is the concern – 13% of the sold portfolio, and an estimated 20% of all private credit loans are to software companies. Blackstone -5.4%. Apollo -5.2%. The contagion spread in hours. When private credit meets the SaaSpocalypse, nobody’s marks are safe.
Booking Holdings -7.6% On AI Fears
Even travel isn’t safe from the disruption narrative.
Booking dropped despite results. AI replacement fears now reaching into every corner of the services economy. Etsy popped 22% on its $1.2B Depop sale – sometimes the best move is selling before AI arrives.
Peter Thiel Fully Exits Bitcoin
The ultimate insider has left the building.
☕ Hazel’s Take
GDP and PCE at 8:30. Iran strikes by Saturday. Nvidia Wednesday. Private credit wobbling. Walmart warning about a “hiring recession.” The data dump decides the narrative. Iran decides the weekend. Nvidia decides tech. Three inflection points. Zero margin for error. Happy Friday.
—Hazel, FinNuts
Rumour Has It…
Breaking from the Financial Nuts newsroom where the sound effects have become concerning:
Percy arrived Friday morning making honking noises. “The markets are speaking to me,” he announced. “Honk. Quack. Boing.” Hazel asked if he was having a stroke. Percy said no, he was “channelling the price action through interpretive sound.” Cachè-AI-Bot’s visor flickered. “Beep. I have analysed all known market-sound correlations. They do not exist. However, the onomatopoeia ‘boing’ does accurately represent the SPX price action this week. I am troubled by this. Beep-Beep.” Percy punched the air. “SEE? Even the robot agrees.” Cachè: “I said I was troubled, not in agreement. These are different states.”
Hazel had already processed the Walmart earnings. “They used the phrase ‘hiring recession,'” she said quietly. The newsroom went still. Wallie lowered his newspaper. Mac put down his glass. Even Kash looked up from his phone. “When Walmart – the company that serves more Americans than any other single entity – starts using the word ‘recession’ in any combination,” Hazel continued, “you pay attention.” Cachè’s visor pulsed. “Beep. I have catalogued 47 instances of major retailers using recession-adjacent language in earnings calls since 2000. In 31 of those instances, the economy was already in one. In the remaining 16, the retailer was being conservative and the economy avoided recession. I cannot determine which category applies. Beep-Beep.” Wallie folded his newspaper. “In my day we didn’t need a catalogue. We just looked out the window.”
Kash had seen Peter Thiel fully exit Bitcoin. He was standing very still. “The man who invested $500,000 in Facebook. Who backed PayPal. Who saw everything early.” Long pause. “He’s out.” Another pause. “Completely.” Mac studied him. “Are you… are you considering that you might be wrong?” Kash’s eye twitched. “I didn’t say that.” Cachè: “Beep. Your left eyelid contracted involuntarily. This is a microexpression associated with cognitive dissonance. The machine reads it as: yes. Beep-Beep.” Kash: “I hate you.” Cachè: “This is not the first time. It will not affect my assessment.”
Mac had been watching Blue Owl all morning. “A former PIMCO CEO is comparing this to August 2007,” he said. “Private credit. Software exposure. Redemption restrictions. Contagion spreading to Blackstone and Apollo in hours.” He paused. “And it’s Friday. With Iran strikes possible by Saturday. And GDP and PCE in—” he checked the clock— “forty-three minutes.” He reached for the bottle. A Bruichladdich. Unpeated. Clear. “Because when everything is about to happen at once and the market sounds like a farmyard and the data dump is forty-three minutes away and the former PIMCO CEO is saying the C-word…”
He poured.
“…you drink something transparent. Because right now, clarity is the only thing worth having.”
He looked at the screens. Flat. Waiting.
“Honk quack boing.”
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
src=”https://www.youtube.com/embed/xxxx”
title=”YouTube video player”
frameborder=”0″
allow=”accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share”
allowfullscreen></iframe>
Meme of the Day:
Real events: bring a towel.
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
p.s. There are 3 ways I can help you…
- Option 1: The SPX Income System Book (Just $12)
A complete guide to the system.
Written to be clear, concise, and immediately actionable.
>> Get the Book Here
- Option 2: Full Course + Software Access – 50% off for Regular Readers – Save $998.50
Includes the video walkthroughs, tools for TradeStation & TradingView, and everything I use daily. Plus 7 additional strategies
>> Get DIY Training & Software
- Option 3: Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – 50% off for Regular Readers – Save $3,000
>> Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – trade live, twice a week, with me and the crew. PLUS Monthly on-demand 1-2-1’s
No fluff. Just profits, pulse bars, and patterns that actually work.
