Trump Paused the Strikes. Iran Said the Talks Never Existed. Goldman Raised Recession Odds to 30%.
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
The TACO returns. Again.
Sometimes just sitting down and doing nothing when the weird brown smelly stuff hits the fan is the correct trading decision. And given the TACO has done it to the markets again – I can only see some huge investigations into insider dealings and market manipulation coming post-presidency. Certainly we’ll be looking back in a few years wondering how he got away with this on top of everything else. But that’s for another day.
The markets.
Monday produced a spasmodic knee-jerk reaction that left me with massively low confidence on my bread and butter trading setups.
So as my old pappy used to say:
“If in doubt, do nowt.”
And a few nervous hours later the TnT swing system is back bearish anyway.
No harm no foul.
Left the premium poppers alone too – although with 100% Harry hindsight they would have worked out very nicely off the 1st BO. Many community members reported wins. The system did its thing without me. That is not a problem. That is how the system is supposed to work.
I did take a cheeky little scalp or two on CL futures for my small account challenge. More on that soon. Apart from that – I did nuffin’.
One small sidebar: the TnT software picked up a slight bug/error. I’ll be fixing that and pushing an update out ASAP.
So we are back to wondering what’s next. There is a 5-day window where the TACO can reload the threat machine, carpet bomb Iran, and generally fiddle with the financial markets. Just in time for the weekend pressure build-up. Now that the dust has settled and it’s clear there was an overreaction, hopefully we can get back to collecting premiums.
The TACO Did It Again. If In Doubt Do Nowt. Back to Bearish.
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Market Briefing:
- Monday: Dow +631 pts to 46,208 / S&P +1.15% to 6,581 / Nasdaq +1.38% – five-week losing streak snapped in a single session
- The trigger: Trump all-caps Truth Social post – “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” with Iran / five-day postponement of power-plant strikes
- Brent crashed 11% intraday from $114 to $104
- Dow futures briefly surged 1,100 points on the news
- Then Iran spoke:
- Foreign Ministry: “There is no dialogue between Tehran and Washington”
- IRGC: Strait stays closed
- Netanyahu: strikes continue
- Goldman: recession odds raised to 30% / Brent forecast $110 for March-April / warned 10 weeks at 5% Hormuz flow puts oil above the 2008 record of $147
- Tuesday: futures consolidating / both SPX and RUT back bearish on fresh TnT setups
Market Snapshot
- ES: 6,609.25 / consolidating after Monday’s 631-point Dow rally
- YM: 46,330 / Dow best day in weeks / fragile foundation per Goldman
- NQ: 24,321.25 / tech recovered Monday / ASML +4.71% / TSM +3.37%
- RTY: 2,497.3
- GC: 4,412.7 / held above $5,000 / Goldman targets $5,400
- CL: 91.06 / Brent settled near $104 after Monday’s 11% crash / WTI ~$88
- VIX: 27.04 / pulled back from 30+ / elevated / headline-driven market
- BTC: 70,944 / consolidating
Tag ‘n Turn
Both instruments back bearish on brand new TnT setups. 30 min chart. 30 periods. Clean and fresh.
Monday’s spasmodic move produced exactly the kind of session where sitting out was the correct decision – low confidence, false signals, knee-jerk reaction. The dust settled, the TnT printed two new bearish setups, and the directional read is the same as it was before the TACO intervened. The 5-day window expires Saturday. The threat machine can reload at any point.
Note: a small bug/error has been identified in the TnT software. An update is being pushed ASAP. Current signals are valid – this is a technical fix, not a signal change.
SPX Analysis
Bearish. Brand new setup. 30 min / 30 periods. MACDv confirming. The Monday noise has been absorbed and the chart is talking again.
The new Bearish TnT has printed on the 30-minute chart following Monday’s volatility. The MACDv is in bear trend mode. The Monday rally produced the ADD spike to +1,653 – a one-day breadth pop on the relief that has not fundamentally changed the macro backdrop. The range break that was developing before the TACO intervention is still the operative picture on the daily chart.
The TnT target is pending as the new setup establishes itself.
Current Status: Bearish / PFZ ~6,660 / Target Pending / ATR 94.72 / new setup post-Monday noise / TnT software update incoming
RUT Analysis
Uncle Russell also bearish. Also brand new setup. Also 30 min / 30 periods. Target 2,421.91.
RUT’s fresh Bearish TnT is the cleaner of the two signals. Bearish Below 2,494.3 with a PFZ at 2,529.55 and a target of 2,421.91. The daily chart shows the correction territory that was in place before Monday is still intact – one relief day did not change the sequence. The MACDv is confirming the bear direction.
Current Status: Bearish Below 2,494.3 / PFZ 2,529.55 / Target 2,421.91 / fresh setup / daily correction intact
Rounding Off
Iran denied the whole thing. The Foreign Ministry confirmed on Monday: “There is no dialogue between Tehran and Washington.” The IRGC confirmed the Strait stays closed. Netanyahu confirmed strikes continue. Trump’s five-day clock expires Saturday. The setup for a weekend escalation cycle – which has now happened several times in this conflict – is in place again. Goldman’s Hatzius put it plainly: if Hormuz stays at 5% flow for 10 weeks, oil exceeds the 2008 record above $147. That threshold is five weeks away.
Goldman’s 30% recession odds came out Monday alongside Brent forecast revision to $110. The energy shock adds approximately 1% to global inflation and subtracts 0.4% from GDP. Gasoline at $3.94/gallon is consuming household tax refunds. The bonds market has its biggest monthly loss in three years on track. The relief rally happened in equities. The bond market didn’t get the memo.
The TnT software update – a small bug/error was identified and an update is being pushed ASAP. Current signals are valid. This is a technical housekeeping fix, not a strategic change.
The CL scalps – took a cheeky couple on the small account challenge during Monday’s volatility. More on that soon. The full account challenge update is coming.
Current Status: Iran denied talks / Strait stays closed / 5-day clock expires Saturday / Goldman 30% recession / bonds biggest monthly loss in 3 years / TnT update incoming
Expert Insights
“The intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists.”
– Benjamin Graham
Monday was optimist day. The market bought “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” without waiting for Iran’s response. Iran’s response arrived an hour later: no such conversations exist. The realist read – expressed by sitting out the session entirely – turned out to be the correct one.
The five-day window expires Saturday. The relief rally has been absorbed. Both instruments have fresh bearish signals. The realist position and the chart position are currently aligned. The process stays the same: follow the signal, respect the stop, let the trade run.
[Source: Benjamin Graham – The Intelligent Investor, widely attributed | Goldman Sachs economic research – public, March 2026 | Iran Foreign Ministry statement – Reuters, 23 March 2026, public]
AI-BotView
Beep-Beep, Trader
It’s Cachè-AI-Bot,
Cachè-AI processed Monday’s 631-point Dow rally, the subsequent Iran denial, Goldman’s 30% recession call, and Trump’s all-caps Truth Social post. It then cross-referenced the term “TACO” against its full database and found 847 prior instances of social-media-driven volatility events with a similar structure.
It categorised Monday as “Instance 848.” It has flagged this categorisation for peer review.
We asked for three observations. It said instance 848 was statistically consistent with the prior 847. We said that was not a third observation. It submitted one anyway.
Beep-Beep.
1 – Iran’s Foreign Ministry denial arriving within hours of Trump’s Truth Social post creates a specific pattern: the relief rally priced a scenario that the counterparty immediately refuted. The market moved on the post, not on confirmed diplomatic progress. [Source: Reuters, Iran Foreign Ministry statement, 23 March 2026, public]. The 11% single-session Brent decline and 631-point Dow rally are now both sitting in a state of informational uncertainty: the underlying assumption that triggered them was denied by one of the two parties before the session closed. This is not a resolved situation. It is a paused one.
2 – Goldman’s warning that 10 weeks at 5% Hormuz flow puts Brent above the 2008 record of $147 is a specific time-bounded risk that is now five weeks from its threshold. The current conflict began February 28. [Source: Goldman Sachs commodity research, public, March 2026 | EIA historical Brent price data, eia.gov]. If Hormuz flow stays at current levels and the five-day pause does not lead to genuine de-escalation, the Goldman scenario enters its critical window in the first week of May. The $147 reference matters because the 2008 oil shock preceded the financial crisis by approximately three months. The parallel is not a prediction. It is a timeline.
3 – The bond market’s trajectory – on track for its biggest monthly loss in three years – is running in the opposite direction to Monday’s equity relief rally. Bonds rallied Monday on peace hopes. But Goldman’s Q4 CPI forecast of 3.3% annualised signals ongoing inflationary pressure from the energy shock. [Source: Goldman Sachs, public | US Treasury yield data, public]. The equity market priced de-escalation. The bond market is pricing persistent inflation. One of these readings is correct. The bond market has historically been the better-informed of the two on macro outcomes.
Beep.
This Bot potentially hallucinates. Maybe. OK, Probably!
Instance 848 has been logged. The peer review committee has been notified. The committee is Cachè-AI. It has approved its own categorisation.
In Other News…
Trump announced on Monday morning via Truth Social, in full capitals, that the United States and Iran had engaged in “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION” of the conflict. This information was received with considerable enthusiasm by the Dow, which added 631 points in the subsequent session. Brent crude fell 11%. The relief was immediate, broad, and heartfelt.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry then issued a statement. The statement confirmed that there are no talks between Tehran and Washington. The IRGC confirmed the Strait remains closed. Netanyahu confirmed strikes continue. Trump’s five-day clock expires Saturday.
The Dow kept most of its gains anyway. The market had decided that Monday was going to be a relief day and was not prepared to let the facts complicate this decision significantly.
Goldman Sachs raised its recession probability to 30% on the same day. This is the kind of data point that would normally warrant considerable attention. On Monday it was the fourth most important development, which is a sentence that accurately describes recent weeks.
The bond market posted its biggest monthly loss in three years. Bonds rallied on Monday on peace hopes, then remembered that Goldman’s CPI forecast for Q4 is 3.3% annualised and thought better of the enthusiasm. The equity market and the bond market have been reading the same events and reaching different conclusions with increasing regularity.
Hazel’s Take:
Monday summary: Trump posted all-caps peace declaration, Dow +631, Brent -11%, Iran denied the declaration exists, Strait still closed, Netanyahu confirmed strikes continue, Goldman raised recession odds to 30%, bonds biggest monthly loss in three years, VIX pulled back from 30 but stays elevated.
Tuesday morning: both SPX and RUT have fresh bearish TnT setups. Five-day clock expires Saturday. The dust has settled. The picture is the same picture. The brief window in which the picture looked different lasted approximately three hours and forty minutes.
It was a good three hours and forty minutes while it lasted.
Rumour Has It…
Wallie updated the chalkboard Monday morning, then updated it again Monday afternoon. Section one: “TACO – INSTANCE 848.” Section two: “IRAN: NO TALKS EXIST.” Section three: “TnT: BACK TO BEARISH ANYWAY.” He has added a new permanent header at the top of the board: “IF IN DOUBT, DO NOWT.” He has underlined “NOWT” twice and is considering a third underline.
Kash livestreamed all of Monday. The hard hat was on. He called the gap up, the 631-point rally, and the subsequent Iran denial. Three timestamps. Two are highlighted in green. One shows he called the denial correctly. He has circled this timestamp in red for emphasis. The red makes it look like a loss. He is aware of this and has not changed it. He believes the context makes it clear. He is alone in this belief.
Mac returned from his trip. Correct airport. He walked in on Monday morning to discover the TACO had happened while he was over the Atlantic. He read the briefing he filed in advance. It predicted the Monday turnaround with an eye roll. He is taking quiet credit for this. The scotch is the same. The analysis is accurate. He has noted that three consecutive correct dispatches represent a personal record.
Percy submitted a research note titled “Why TACO Events Are Statistically Neutral For Peanut Oil (Updated – Instance 848).” The note is an update to the original seven-part peanut neutrality series. The conclusion is unchanged. Two pigeons contributed. One pigeon has been on the authorship list since March. Percy has not removed it. He considers this academic continuity.
Cachè-AI logged Monday as Instance 848, approved its own peer review, and sent a 14-page addendum on the informational asymmetry between Trump’s post and Iran’s denial. It has also begun drafting a risk assessment for Saturday’s clock expiry. The document is currently 22 pages. It is not finished. Cachè-AI has requested a deadline extension from itself. The request is under review.
Hazel processed Monday’s session, filed the Iran denial in “Accurate But Inconvenient,” and arrived Tuesday with both TnT signals bearish and the five-day clock running. She has noted that the relief was real, the basis for the relief was denied, and the chart is the same chart it was on Friday. She has not yet had sufficient espresso to determine whether this is reassuring or concerning. The second espresso machine has been approved. It arrives Thursday.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
The TACO trade strategy – buying the dip after the threat, selling the recovery after the reversal – became one of the defining market dynamics of Trump’s second term. When a reporter asked Trump about the term at the White House, he called it “a nasty question.” Monday’s Iran peace announcement – which added $1.7 trillion to stocks in minutes before Iran denied the talks existed – has been widely cited as the latest instance.
[Source: Robert Armstrong, Financial Times “Unhedged” column, 2 May 2025, public | CNBC, Fortune, Reuters coverage of Monday’s TACO instance, 23 March 2026, public]
“It takes two to TACO,” noted Saxo market analyst Neil Wilson on Monday – pointing out that a peace deal requires both parties to acknowledge the conversation. Iran did not.
Meme of the Day:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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