TnT Swings Now On Pause While We Wait For A Breakout – No Surprise There
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Right now I feel like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day – waking up to the same song at the same time in the same town.
Yup you guessed it – saying the same thing about the markets because nothing has changed.
We are still at the upper edge of the previously mentioned range. I’m still leaning towards the bear side of things in the short term.
SPX and RUT have now confirmed their Bollinger Band width pinch point ranges – sooo the TnT swings are now on pause while we wait for a breakout.
No surprise there as I was already waiting for a new entry signal to develop.
Yesterday there were some interesting opportunities using the Premium Popper setups with a little common sense – since price on both SPX and RUT were at or near the upper edge of those same ranges, using the ORB20 filtered with the bear bias we already had starting the week allowed for a way to trade the bear breakout which was a part of the larger range reversal and of course – one of my 6 money making patterns.
Two wins for the day: RUT 54.13% ROC and SPX 58.3% ROC.
Entries and exits look a mess – but this is the great thing about income styled trading – we do not need a directional move to get paid.
In the case of SPX, should the same trade have been placed on futures – it would have been whipped around and stopped out. With Income options – profit achieved despite the messy chart.
We have a little piece of news at 10am EST – after that it should be plain sailing again for the day.
Given the official range – it’s likely the market is holding its break for Friday’s NFP figures.
We will see what we see when we see it.
Keep scrolling for the Premium Popper wins breakdown…
Groundhog Day Markets. BB Width Confirmed. 2 Wins Yesterday. Waiting For Friday.
SPX Market Briefing:
Wednesday December continues the Groundhog Day theme (Bill Murray waking up same song same time same town – nothing has changed), still at upper edge of range leaning bear short term,
SPX and RUT have now confirmed BB width pinch point ranges (TnT swings on pause awaiting breakout – no surprise already waiting for new entry),
yesterday Premium Poppers used common sense at range highs with ORB20 bear filter (bear BO part of range reversal – 6 money making patterns),
two wins RUT 54.13% ROC SPX 58.3% ROC (entries and exits messy but income trading doesn’t need direction – futures would have been stopped out), 10am EST news then plain sailing, market likely holding break for Friday NFP.
Current Multi-Market Status:
- SPX: BB width pinch confirmed, TnT on pause, range highs
- RUT: BB width pinch confirmed, TnT on pause, range highs
- ES: 6,851 – consolidating
- CL: 59.36 – upper range
- GC: 4,231 – consolidating
- VIX: 16.54 – subdued
- BTC: 93,161 – recovering
Groundhog Day – Nothing Has Changed
Right now I feel like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day – waking up to the same song at the same time in the same town.
Saying the same thing about the markets because nothing has changed. Still at the upper edge of the previously mentioned range. Still leaning towards the bear side of things in the short term.
Current Status: Same view, same range, same bias
BB Width Pinch Confirmed
SPX and RUT have now confirmed their Bollinger Band width pinch point ranges – sooo the TnT swings are now on pause while we wait for a breakout.
No surprise there as I was already waiting for a new entry signal to develop. The official range condition is now confirmed.
Current Status: BB width pinch confirmed, TnT on pause, awaiting breakout
Yesterday’s Premium Popper Wins
Yesterday there were some interesting opportunities using the Premium Popper setups with a little common sense.
Price on both SPX and RUT were at or near the upper edge of those same ranges. Using the ORB20 filtered with the bear bias we already had starting the week allowed for a way to trade the bear breakout – part of the larger range reversal and one of my 6 money making patterns.
Two wins: RUT 54.13% ROC ($10) and SPX 58.3% ROC ($12).
Current Status: Premium Poppers banked, bear filter working
Income Trading vs Futures
Entries and exits look a mess – but this is the great thing about income styled trading – we do not need a directional move to get paid.
In the case of SPX, should the same trade have been placed on futures – it would have been whipped around and stopped out. With Income options – profit achieved despite the messy chart.
Current Status: Income options profit, futures would have been stopped
Waiting For Friday NFP
Given the official range – it’s likely the market is holding its break for Friday’s NFP figures.
We have a little piece of news at 10am EST – after that it should be plain sailing again for the day. We will see what we see when we see it.
Current Status: 10am news, then waiting for Friday NFP
Expert Insights
The Observation: When BB width confirms a pinch point range, the market is telling you something. It’s consolidating. It’s waiting. And trying to force trades in consolidation usually ends badly.
The Fix: Pause the swing strategies. Use range-based setups like Premium Poppers at the edges. Filter with the bias you already have. Let the market come to you instead of chasing it into the chop.
In Other News…
Markets Reward Simple AI Stories, Punish Complex Reality
MongoDB soars 23% for mentioning AI. Marvell beats earnings, falls 6% for attempting growth strategy.
Tuesday’s rebound revealed market’s new preference: mention AI and surge, attempt actual growth strategy and get punished. MongoDB crushed estimates and soared 23% on clean AI narrative whilst Marvell beat expectations but fell 6% because $3.25B Celestial AI acquisition apparently too complicated for investors preferring simple stories. Bitcoin’s $84K-to-$91K round-trip labeled “risk appetite returning” rather than acknowledging $7K volatility in 48 hours signals confusion not confidence.
When Beating Estimates Insufficient for Growth
Marvell delivered $0.76 EPS beating $0.74 estimate but acquired company to accelerate AI positioning—markets responded with -6% because attempting strategic growth more complex than maintaining status quo. MongoDB’s 23% surge on clean narrative (crush estimates, raise guidance, mention AI frequently) demonstrates markets now reward simplicity over strategy. CrowdStrike beat, raised guidance, hit $4.92B ARR—software with straightforward AI stories outperforming hardware with M&A complexity.
️ Retail Records Prove Consumer “Resilience”
American Eagle surged 11% on record Thanksgiving weekend whilst Boeing gained 9.1% on CFO delivery promises—proving markets equally excited about shopping records and airplane production aspirations. Salesforce and Snowflake report tonight testing whether enterprise software maintains momentum or discovers valuations matter.
UK-US Pharma Deal: Zero Tariffs (Temporarily)
UK-US struck three-year zero-tariff pharma deal with Bristol Myers pledging $500M UK investment—bilateral trade agreements now measured in presidential terms rather than decades. 87% December cut odds remain market’s entire thesis whilst gold rebounded and oil struggles at $58.50.
☕ Hazel’s Take
MongoDB soars for mentioning AI, Marvell falls for attempting growth, Bitcoin’s $7K swing = “risk appetite.” When simple narratives beat complex strategies, probably acknowledging markets prefer storytelling over execution.
—Hazel, FinNuts
Rumour Has It…
The Financial Nuts team reports from the newsroom…
Percy’s been playing “I Got You Babe” on repeat since 6am, convinced the Groundhog Day theme is now official market doctrine. His pigeons are learning the words.
Hazel’s created a “Days Since Anything Changed” counter. Currently displaying: “Lost count. Send help.”
Mac’s glass is labelled “SAME VIEW SPECIAL” whilst Kash calculated the ROC on yesterday’s wins. “54% and 58%. Not bad for a messy chart.”
Wallie summed up everyone’s feelings: “Wake me when NFP happens. Or when the range breaks. Whichever comes first. Preferably NFP because at least that has a schedule.”
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
Speaking of Groundhog Day – researchers at Northumbria University mapped a century of US stock market returns against Punxsutawney Phil’s annual predictions. When the groundhog predicts an early spring (no shadow), the market returns are 2.78% higher than when he predicts a long winter. The study calls this “irrational optimism of superstitious investors.”
[Source: Finance Research Letters / Harvard Business Review – “The Groundhog Day Stock Market Anomaly”]
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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