95.3% Win Rate Walks Into 2026 Looking For More Premium to Pop
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
We finished 2025 with a 95.3% win rate and a sherry. Not bad. Now let’s see if we can keep the momentum rolling.
But first – what the actual hell happened over the weekend?
The US decided to start 2026 by capturing Venezuela’s president. Maduro’s appearing in a New York courtroom today. Trump says America’s “in charge” now. Gold’s already lifted off to 4,450. Oil’s watching nervously from the sidelines. The UN Security Council is meeting. And somewhere, a geopolitical risk analyst just cancelled their holiday.
For us systematic traders? Business as usual. The Tag n Turn on SPX went bullish last week. RUT remains bearish. The setups don’t care about headlines – they care about price.
Let’s break down what matters for today.
The world’s gone mad. Your system hasn’t. Scroll down.
Market Briefing:
Well, well, well. We’re back at the desk proper after an excellent finish to the year.
And what a way to start 2026.
The Venezuela Situation
Over the weekend, the US conducted military strikes in Venezuela and captured President Maduro. He’s appearing in a New York federal court today on drug trafficking charges. Trump’s saying America is “in charge” of Venezuela now. The UN Security Council is meeting. China’s condemning “hegemonic bullying.” 32 Cubans were killed in the operation.
It’s… a lot.
What the Markets Are Doing
Here’s the interesting bit: markets are relatively calm.
Gold’s already lifted off – sitting at 4,450 and breaking out of its recent downtrend. This makes sense. Geopolitical chaos = flight to safety.
Oil? Still in its downtrend channel at 57.39. You’d think Venezuela = oil spike, but markets seem to be pricing in US control of Venezuelan oil reserves rather than supply disruption. For now.
VIX? Asleep at 15.17. The fear gauge doesn’t seem particularly bothered. Yet.
Equities? Futures are slightly higher. ES at 6920.75.
The Tag n Turn Picture
SPX went bullish last week. Currently at 6858.48, which is above our bullish trigger of 6850.53. Target sits at 6934.47. The PFZ level is 6828.99 – that’s our line in the sand.
RUT remains bearish. Flipped below 2515.68 and currently sitting at 2508.22. This divergence between SPX and RUT continues to be the story. Big caps holding up, small caps struggling.
Santa Rally? Never Showed
I think it’s fair to say the Santa Rally failed to call.
We talked about it. We watched for it. It didn’t materialise.
Now we look towards the next markers that will potentially guide how the year unfolds. January’s price action often sets the tone – the “January Barometer” will be getting attention soon.
What I’m NOT Watching Today
- ISM Manufacturing PMI drops at 10:00am ET. Forecast is 48.3 (previous 48.2). Still in contraction territory but stable. This could set the early tone.
- Maduro Court Appearance at noon ET. Headlines will flow. Probably noise for markets but worth noting.
What I am Watching Today
- Premium Popper Setups – I’m looking to keep my win streak rolling. The system doesn’t care about Venezuela. It cares about ORB levels and VWAP.
Friday’s the big one. NFP forecast is just 57K (previous 64K). Weak number could move markets.
Looking Ahead
The world’s doing world things. Chaos, headlines, captured presidents, breaking news.
Your system? It’s doing system things. Bullish triggers, bearish flips, premium decay.
One of these approaches leads to consistent profits. The other leads to emotional trading and ulcers.
Stay mechanical. Stay boring. Stay profitable.
PopPop.
In Other News…
Markets “Process” Venezuela Strike by Rallying Defense Stocks
Maduro captured. Defense stocks surge 8-9%. Oil flat because “sub-1% production.” Haven trade includes crypto now.
Futures steadied as markets “processed” weekend’s Venezuela military strike—financial euphemism for calculating who profits from geopolitical chaos. Japanese defense stocks IHI, Mitsubishi Heavy, Kawasaki Heavy surged 8-9% alongside South Korean Hanwha +7% proving conflict excellent for portfolios if positioned correctly. Oil remained flat despite Venezuela being oil producer because strategists helpfully noted sub-1% global production limits impact—apparently irrelevance predetermined outcome.
When Conflict Becomes Defense Stock Catalyst
Global defense rally dominated: Japanese trio up 8-9%, South Korea +7% as geopolitical instability translated directly to shareholder returns. Markets calmly processing Maduro capture whilst positioning for prolonged tensions. Samsung CEO announced doubling AI-powered mobile devices with Google Gemini in 2026—timing announcement during geopolitical crisis because apparently AI phones matter during coups.
️ Venezuela Oil Production: Too Small to Matter
Oil flat despite Venezuela strike because sub-1% global production means entire nation’s output irrelevant to pricing. Strategists “downplaying long-term impact” before events even unfold demonstrating predetermined narratives. Energy sector treating military strike in OPEC member as non-event because apparently only certain barrels matter.
Haven Trade Expands to Include Everything
Gold +2% to $4,420, silver +4%, crypto rallied alongside creating “unusual correlation highlighting geopolitical hedge narrative”—analyst-speak for “normally these don’t move together but explaining afterwards.” Crypto joining precious metals as haven proves definition expanding to include whatever’s rallying. Dollar strengthened fifth straight session despite risk-on tone because apparently everything simultaneously safe haven and risk asset.
☕ Hazel’s Take
Defense stocks profit 8-9%, oil flat on irrelevance, haven trade includes crypto, dollar strengthens during risk-on. When geopolitical crisis processed by calculating beneficiaries whilst predetermined narratives explain oil’s indifference, probably acknowledging markets optimize for profits not principles.
—Hazel, FinNuts
Expert Insights:
When Geopolitics Meets Price Action
Here’s what history tells us about geopolitical shocks and markets:
They make headlines. They create volatility spikes. And then… usually… markets move on.
The key question isn’t “what happened?” but “does this affect earnings, inflation, or growth?”
Venezuela’s oil reserves are massive – but global oil markets have been well-supplied. Unless this escalates into broader conflict affecting actual supply chains, markets tend to treat these events as noise.
What matters for us today:
- SPX is bullish above 6850.53
- RUT is bearish below 2515.68
- Premium Popper setups will fire based on opening range, not Caracas
The system doesn’t read the news. Neither should your execution.
Rumour Has It…
The Financial Nuts team tackles their first Monday of 2026…
The newsroom looked like a war zone. Which, given the actual news, felt appropriate.
Percy had arrived wearing a “HAPPY 2026” hat that was three sizes too big and kept falling over his eyes. “Did we win?” he asked, pushing the brim up for the fourth time. “Are we in charge of Venezuela now?”
“We?” Wallie looked up from his doom spreadsheet. “Percy, you can barely be in charge of your lunch order.”
“Gold’s at 4,450,” Mac announced, cigar already lit despite the “No Smoking in 2026” resolution that had lasted approximately 47 minutes. “Flight to safety trade. Classic.”
Kash was frantically scrolling his phone. “Why isn’t Bitcoin moving? There’s literally geopolitical chaos and Bitcoin’s just… sitting there.”
“Because Bitcoin isn’t actually a safe haven,” Hazel said, not looking up from her triple-stacked monitor setup. “It’s a speculative asset pretending to be digital gold. Real gold is doing real gold things.”
“SPX is bullish,” Mac continued, ignoring Kash’s existential crisis. “RUT’s bearish. Same story, different year.”
“Santa never came,” Percy said sadly. “I left out cookies and everything.”
“Those were for Christmas, Percy. And you ate them yourself.”
“The cookies or the Santa Rally?”
“Yes.”
Wallie cleared his throat. “I’ve prepared a 47-page analysis of potential 2026 scenarios, ranging from ‘mild recession’ to ‘complete civilizational collapse.'”
“So… bullish then?” Mac smirked.
“The VIX is at 15,” Wallie muttered. “Nobody’s taking this seriously.”
“The market’s taking it exactly as seriously as it should,” Mac replied. “Which is: watch the setups, ignore the noise, collect the premium.”
Percy’s hat fell over his eyes again. “Are we still in charge of Venezuela?”
Nobody answered.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
Here’s something to watch this month: the “January Barometer” – the theory that January’s performance predicts the full year.
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac data, when the S&P 500 is up in January, the full year has been up 86.4% of the time since 1950. When January is down, full year performance becomes much more mixed.
The first five trading days are particularly watched – the “First Five Days” indicator. If the market is up after the first five days (that’s through this Friday), it’s historically been a positive sign for the year.
Of course, Santa was supposed to call too. And look how that turned out.
[Source: Stock Trader’s Almanac, Jeff Hirsch]
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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