Returns To Emo Couch Grouch Mode Whilst Crude Sneaks Out The Back Door SPX
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Another Monday, another case of the markets doing precisely Sweet Fanny Adams.
Those pesky ranges we’ve been watching? Still developing. Still teasing. Still refusing to give us a definitive answer. We’re camped out near the upper boundaries on both SPX and RUT – close enough to smell the breakout targets, not close enough to claim victory.
And honestly? I’m still inclined to be a little bearish until we actually see these ranges crack open. Near the ceiling isn’t through the ceiling.
The week ahead brings FOMC on Wednesday – rate decision, projections, the full circus. Oh, and NFP? Moved to 16th December. Because feck it, apparently.
Your patience muscle is about to get a workout.
Keep scrolling for who breaks first…
SPX Market Briefing:
Monday brings the start of another week where we should be seeing breakouts, but instead we’re seeing… more waiting.
Current Multi-Market Status:
- SPX: Breakout mode – cat’s whisker from 6,902 target – waiting for resolution
- RUT: Breakout mode – cat’s whisker from 2,542 target – same waiting game
- VIX: 16.21 – Emo couch grouch mode, sulking in the corner
- GC: 4,237 – still grinding out its own range, no drama
- CL: 59.62 – actually showing signs of life with tiny channel breakout
The Waiting Game
Here’s where we stand: both SPX and RUT are in breakout mode. Both are a cat’s whisker from their targets. And both require exactly one thing from us right now – patience.
SPX is grinding at 6,870 with a breakout target of 6,902. That’s 32 points away. Close. But “close” doesn’t pay. We need either target reached or failure confirmed before the next move becomes clear.
RUT (Uncle Russell) sits at 2,521 with a target of 2,542. That’s 20 points of daylight between current price and destination. Same story – waiting for resolution.
Until we get target or failure? Nothing to do but wait.
The Outlier
Crude Oil is the one instrument not playing the waiting game. It’s showing a tiny breakout from its descending channel – “making its move” whilst everything else sits near boundaries doing nothing interesting.
Is it a real move? We’ll see. But at least someone’s trying.
The Calendar Curveball
FOMC Wednesday is the big one this week:
- Tuesday: ADP Employment, JOLTS Job Openings
- Wednesday: Employment Cost Index, then the main event – Fed Rate Decision (forecast 3.75% vs previous 4.00%), FOMC Projections, Statement, and Press Conference at 2:30pm
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
NFP? Pushed to 16th December. Because scheduling is hard, apparently.
The Lean
I’m still inclined to be a little bearish until we see these breakouts actually confirm. We’re near upper boundaries – not through them. “Near” has a habit of becoming “rejected from” when you’re not paying attention.
Poppers remain active both ways. No directional filters needed when ranges are this tight.
Expert Insights:
The Setup: Markets consolidating at range boundaries with breakout targets tantalisingly close but not yet reached.
The Fix: Range-bound markets reward patience over action. Research from my analysis suggests that waiting for price to reach well-defined support and resistance levels – rather than trading in the middle of ranges – significantly improves decision-making quality. The temptation to anticipate breakouts before confirmation leads to premature entries and frustration.
The systematic approach: define your levels, wait for resolution, act on confirmation. Not prediction.
[Source: AntiVestor – “6 Money Making Patterns”]
In Other News…
Markets Celebrate Being 0.7% From Record, Ignore Everything Else
Fed’s “final word,” $100B tariff ruling, Treasury worst week. VIX 15.41 = “calm” apparently.
Markets steadied ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC delivering Fed’s “final word on 2025” like Jerome Powell’s ending season cliffhanger. S&P sits 0.7% below record—investors celebrating proximity to achievement rather than actual achievement. VIX at 15.41 signals calm despite pivotal Fed week, Supreme Court tariff ruling with $100B refund liability, and Netflix-WBD deal volatility because apparently multiple binary risks equal tranquility.
When Worst Treasury Week Since June = Stocks Rally
Treasuries suffered worst week since June with 10-year hitting 4.14% (highest since June) whilst stocks notched fourth straight winning day. Tech breadth broadened with XLK’s tenth consecutive session—markets treating rising yields as background noise whilst celebrating tech rally. Curve suggests pricing one cut but questioning 2026 pace meaning market simultaneously confident and uncertain about same Fed policy.
Supreme Court Tariff Ruling: $100B Binary Risk (Ignored)
Supreme Court tariff ruling represents $100B refund liability possibility—binary outcome that could reshape trade policy and corporate balance sheets—yet VIX at 15.41 suggests nobody pricing this. Oracle Monday faces AI monetization questions, Broadcom Thursday tests infrastructure thesis, but everyone focused on Fed’s Wednesday “final word” as if one meeting determines 2025 when there’s two weeks left.
GM Hits All-Time Highs “Since 2010 IPO”
GM reached all-time highs “since 2010 IPO”—selective time frame ignoring entire pre-bankruptcy existence. Bank of America hit 2006 highs—another carefully chosen benchmark. Markets excelling at choosing timeframes that make numbers look impressive whilst ignoring inconvenient historical context.
☕ Hazel’s Take
VIX 15.41 signals calm before Fed finale, $100B tariff ruling, Oracle/Broadcom tests. When celebrating 0.7% from record whilst Treasuries have worst week and Supreme Court binary risk ignored completely, probably acknowledging proximity to anything counts as success now.
—Hazel, FinNuts
Rumour Has It…
Breaking from the Financial Nuts newsroom: Percy was discovered teaching his desk pigeons “Range Boundary Patience Formation Flying” whilst claiming they had mastered “Systematic Waiting During Cat’s Whisker Proximity Advanced Hovering.”
Hazel updated her crisis management protocols to include “Trading During Nothing Happening Procedures” alongside emergency plans for “Upper Boundary Proximity Without Breakout Confirmation Stress Management Processes.”
Mac raised his Monday morning whisky and declared, “When both indexes are a cat’s whisker from target whilst doing Sweet Fanny Adams, the proper response is obviously patience and another dram!”
Kash attempted livestreaming about “Crude Oil sneaking out of channels being basically like DeFi protocols escaping yield farming ranges but with actual barrels involved” but got distracted watching VIX sulk on its couch.
Wallie grumbled that in his day, breakout targets meant “proper decisive moves, not this cat’s whisker nonsense with everyone waiting for someone else to make the first move!”
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
The most profitable trading strategy might be… doing absolutely nothing.
Here’s what nobody wants to admit about markets: they’re boring as hell most of the time. And that’s exactly why patient traders make money.
Research shows there are maybe 3 to 5 genuinely good setups per day. That’s it.
But emotional traders? They take 10, 20, sometimes 100+ trades chasing every wiggle on the chart.
The math is brutal. More trades means more commissions. More spread slippage. More opportunities to make stupid decisions because you’re bored, not because you have a strategy.
Range-bound markets reward the boring virtues-discipline, clear levels, and recognizing when “nothing to do but wait” IS the optimal decision.
The setup will come. The breakout will happen.
But forcing it before confirmation is like trying to make a cat move by staring at it harder.
Patience isn’t just a virtue in trading-it’s the actual edge.
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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