Total: 10 Trades, 10 Wins, 0 Losses – In A Week Of Peace Suggestions, Carpet Bomb Threats, And April Fools
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
What a week to try and trade.
Peace suggestions Tuesday. Markets rip. Carpet bomb threats Wednesday night. Markets crater. April Fools, sort of. The Mr Miyagi period in miniature. Risk on. Risk off. Wax on. Wax off.
Here is the funny thing though – if I had not had my eyeball on the news mid-week, the strategy would have been just fine. And many students did exactly that and pulled profits regardless. That is the system doing what the system does.
The week broke down like this.
Monday – got stuck in. Two instruments, multiple setups, clean execution. The week’s best session by some distance. 4 wins on SPX, 2 wins on RUT. Done by lunch.
Tuesday – sidestepped the initial sideways morning after the gap higher. We saw a similar pattern to Monday morning and the previous Friday – gap, pause, actual breakout move late morning or early afternoon. That was the expectation. Then a new news blip sent the markets reeling before the setup developed. Happy to have been on the sidelines.
Wednesday – same read again. Gap higher with extreme MACD-v readings. Anticipated the same slow morning grind to unfold before any meaningful move. Sat on hands. As it turned out the BOs would have been just fine – but I am still happy with the decision. These mini black swan news events and Trump trash-talking the world make the markets jump around like a gummy bear on gummy juice. Managing the trader, not just the trade.
Thursday – woke up to Trump trash-talking Iran again. Carpet bombing back on the table. Friends with benefits is officially off the table. That said, we did see two clear setups on both RUT and SPX, and I added two experimental trades fading the extreme move – gap fill, discretionary, exhaustion entries. All four paid.
The week overall was a week of overreactions. I did not get over my skis. I got a lot of RnD done on new setups as part of the Premium Popper system coming soon. And now we are into a long weekend. Power down.
10 trades. 10 wins. 0 losses. In the most chaotic week of the conflict so far. The system was fine throughout.
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Week At A Glance
| Day | SPX Trades | SPX W/L | RUT Trades | RUT W/L | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 30 Mar | 4 | 4/0 | 2 | 2/0 | Clean session / done by lunch |
| Tue 31 Mar | 0 | — | 0 | — | Sidestepped / news blip mid-session |
| Wed 1 Apr | 0 | — | 0 | — | Extreme MACD-v / sat on hands |
| Thu 2 Apr | 2 | 2/0 | 2 | 2/0 | Standard + 2 experimental fades |
| TOTAL | 6 | 6/0 | 4 | 4/0 | 10 trades / 10 wins / 0 losses |
Post Trade DeBriefing
Monday 30 Mar — SPX 4/4, RUT 2/2
SPX: Clean from start to finish. Four trades across four different setup types – the full toolkit in a single session.
- Trade 1: 1st BO. 65.5% ROC from a $7 move.
- Trade 2: Lazy BO. 88.5% ROC from a $35 move.
- Trade 3: VWAP Flop. 68.7% ROC from a $23 move.
- Trade 4: VWAP Retest. 66.7% ROC from a $15 move.
4 trades / 4 wins / 0 losses.
RUT: Two trades, two wins. 1st BO and Lazy BO – clean and simple.
- Trade 1: 1st BO. 62.9% ROC from a $7 move.
- Trade 2: Lazy BO. 87.2% ROC from a $25 move.
2 trades / 2 wins / 0 losses.
Tuesday 31 Mar — No Trades
Quarter-end, gap higher, MACD-v reading was suggesting the morning would grind sideways before any real move developed – same pattern as Monday morning and the previous Friday. The thesis was gap, pause, breakout late morning or early afternoon. A news blip mid-session sent the markets reeling before that breakout had a chance to develop cleanly. Happy to have been watching rather than trading. The BOs later in the day would have worked – but the environment was not the environment to be in confidently.
SPX: 0 trades. RUT: 0 trades.
Wednesday 1 Apr — No Trades
Gap higher again. Extreme MACD-v readings on both instruments. The read was the same as Tuesday morning: slow grind before any directional move. Sat on hands and spent the session coding new ideas and improvements for the Premium Popper system. As it turned out the BOs were just fine and would have paid – but with Trump playing games with the news cycle and mini black swan events arriving daily, sitting out when the environment looks weird is managing the trader correctly. No regrets.
SPX: 0 trades. RUT: 0 trades.
Thursday 2 Apr — SPX 2/2, RUT 2/2
SPX: Two trades – one standard 1st BO entry and one experimental gap fill discretionary exhaustion entry fading the extreme overnight move.
- Trade 1: 1st BO. 66.7% ROC from a $45 move.
- Trade 2: Gap Fill Discretionary Exhaustion Entry (experimental). 65.5% ROC from an $8 move.
2 trades / 2 wins / 0 losses.
RUT: Same structure – 1st BO plus one experimental exhaustion fade.
- Trade 1: 1st BO. 65.5% ROC from a $20 move.
- Trade 2: Gap Fill Discretionary Exhaustion Entry (experimental). 67.7% ROC from a $5 move.
2 trades / 2 wins / 0 losses.
Week In Numbers
SPX
- Trades: 6
- Wins: 6 / Losses: 0
- Win rate: 100%
- Total index P&L: $133
RUT
- Trades: 4
- Wins: 4 / Losses: 0
- Win rate: 100%
- Total index P&L: $62
Combined
- Total trades: 10
- Total wins: 10 / Total losses: 0
- Win rate: 100%
- Combined index P&L: $195
The Week That Was
The week began with the residual chaos of the Mr Miyagi market establishing itself as a permanent feature. Peace suggestions, relief rallies, carpet bomb threats, overnight reversals, VIX swings, extreme MACD-v readings, and two sessions where the correct decision was to make no decision at all.
The students who sat the week out entirely on the index swings and simply took Monday’s clean session missed nothing meaningful. The students who kept their eyes off the news and just traded the setups when they appeared collected premiums without the stress. The students who tried to navigate every intraday news headline found the market jumping around like a gummy bear on gummy juice.
The week demonstrated something worth filing: the system has no ego. It does not care about peace suggestions or carpet bomb threats. It runs the setup, manages the stop, and exits at target. The trader is the variable – and managing the trader in a week like this was as important as managing any individual trade.
Thursday’s experimental gap fill discretionary exhaustion entries are worth noting separately. These are in RnD territory – new ideas being tested as part of the Premium Popper system development that is coming soon. Both paid cleanly. The data point is filed.
10 trades. 10 wins. 0 losses. 100% win rate. Long weekend earned.
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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