Operation Epic Fury, a 15-point peace plan, a cup of tea, some ear lobes, and a very profitable week.
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
What a week that was.
Iran. Peace plans. Denials. Deadlines. A 200-point ES swing on a Truth Social post. Oil above $100. The 82nd Airborne deploying. A cup of tea that may have saved a session. And through all of it — 25 trades, 21 wins, 84% win rate.
Let’s go through it properly.
Monday was not a trading day. The TACO arrived on schedule — Trump posted all-caps “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” on Truth Social and ES swung 200 points in both directions before lunch. Low confidence, spasmodic price action, no clean setups. Sat out. The TnT came back bearish by the close anyway. No harm, no foul. If in doubt, do nowt.
Did take a couple of cheeky CL scalps for the small account challenge in the afternoon. Those are for another update.
Tuesday was the payback session. After sitting Monday out, the system delivered four from four on SPX and three from three on RUT. Clean setups, clean execution, everything in the green. The kind of session that reminds you why the process exists.
Wednesday was where the IV started playing up. The Iran headlines were moving the market and the options prices were jumping with them. Stops triggered twice on SPX on the expansion — both with favourable slippage. Took re-entries both times and adjusted position sizing to compensate. RUT was one clean Lazy Popper using the MACDv entry from the group call. Net positive across both. Not the cleanest day but the system absorbed the fuckery and came out the other side.
Thursday was the test. The 1st BOs crapped out on both instruments. Then the RUT went from almost touching target to full stop in the space of a few candles. Nearly went full tilt. Quick break. Cup of tea. Rub of the ear lobes. Woosaaaah.
Came back. VWAP Flop. Lazy entry triggered simultaneously on SPX. 3rd BO. VWAP retest to pop the cherry on the turn. Five trades on SPX, four wins one stop. Two on RUT, one win one stop. Net very profitable across the day.
Paul Tudor Jones was right. The first trade is history. What matters is the next one.
Friday closed the week exactly as it should. Three from three on SPX. Three from three on RUT. Clean, consistent, done before lunch.
25 trades. 21 wins. 4 losses. 84% win rate. The week was chaos. The system did not care.
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Week At A Glance
| Day | SPX Trades | SPX W/L | RUT Trades | RUT W/L | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 23 Mar | 0 | — | 0 | — | TACO / sat out / correct call |
| Tue 24 Mar | 4 | 4/0 | 3 | 3/0 | Perfect day |
| Wed 25 Mar | 4 | 2/2 | 1 | 1/0 | IV fuckery / re-entries / net positive |
| Thu 26 Mar | 5 | 4/1 | 2 | 1/1 | Near full tilt / woosaaaah / very profitable |
| Fri 27 Mar | 3 | 3/0 | 3 | 3/0 | Clean close |
| TOTAL | 16 | 13/3 | 9 | 8/1 | 25 trades / 21 wins / 4 losses |
Post Trade DeBriefing
Monday 23 Mar — No Trades
The TACO arrived. Instance 848. Trump posted all-caps on Truth Social at approximately 10am ET. ES swung 200 points — from -100 to +100 — in the space of one social media post. The spasmodic price action made every setup unreadable. Confidence was zero. Sat out entirely.
The TnT came back bearish by the close. The decision to sit out was correct. No need to manufacture trades when the market is doing that.
Did take a couple of CL scalps during the day for the small account challenge. Those are tracked separately.
SPX: 0 trades. RUT: 0 trades.
Tuesday 24 Mar — SPX 4/4, RUT 3/3
SPX: The system hit back immediately after Monday’s sideline session. Four clean trades, four wins.
- Trade 1: 1st BO. 66.7% ROC from a $15 move.
- Trade 2: Lazy + 3rd BO combined entry. 19.3% ROC from a $20 move.
- Trade 3: VWAP setup. 68.1% ROC from a $27 move.
- Trade 4: VWAP setup. 78.6% ROC from a $21 move.
4 trades / 4 wins / 0 losses.
RUT: Three trades, three wins. Trade 1 and 2 ran simultaneously off the 1st BO. Trade 3 was a clean VWAP retest setup.
- Trades 1 & 2: 1st BO double entry. 83.6% ROC from a $30 move / 82.3% ROC from a $30 move.
- Trade 3: VWAP retest. 55.6% ROC from a $12 move.
3 trades / 3 wins / 0 losses.
Wednesday 25 Mar — SPX 2/4, RUT 1/1
SPX: The IV was jumping with every Iran headline and the option prices were jumping with it. Stops triggered on the expansion — both exits had favourable slippage. Took re-entries on both and adjusted position sizing to compensate for the fuckery.
- Trade 1: 1st BO — stopped out. -26.7% ROC from a $20 loss.
- Trade 1a: Re-entry — stopped out again. -30.0% ROC from a $2 loss.
- Trade 2: Re-entry with sizing adjustment. 89.7% ROC from a $7 move.
- Trade 3: VWAP retest. 62.9% ROC from a $21 move.
4 trades / 2 wins / 2 losses. Net positive.
RUT: Kept it simple. One Lazy Popper entry using the MACDv entry method discussed on the group call. Clean and done.
- Trade 1: Lazy Popper / MACDv entry. 89.5% ROC from an $8 move.
1 trade / 1 win / 0 losses.
Thursday 26 Mar — SPX 4/5, RUT 1/2
SPX: One of those sessions. The 1st BO crapped out immediately — full stop, full loss. Then the VWAP Flop set up for the 2nd entry, which also triggered a Lazy entry simultaneously. Both worked. 3rd BO delivered. VWAP retest at the end popped the cherry on the turn. Four wins from five trades net very profitable.
- Trade 1: 1st BO — stopped out. -100% ROC from a $30 loss.
- Trade 2: VWAP Flop Popper + Lazy entry. 88.9% ROC from a $33 move.
- Trade 3: 3rd BO. 80.6% ROC from a $33 move.
- Trade 4: VWAP retest. 80.0% ROC from a $24 move.
- Trade 5: VWAP retest cherry. 69.7% ROC from a $21 move.
5 trades / 4 wins / 1 loss. Net very profitable.
RUT: The 1st BO crapped out — and this one stung. Went from almost touching target to full stop in a handful of candles. Took a break. Cup of tea. Ear lobes. Woosaaaah. Came back for the VWAP Flop which delivered cleanly.
- Trade 1: 1st BO — stopped out. -76.9% ROC from a $12 loss.
- Trade 2: VWAP Flop. 77.4% ROC from a $15 move.
2 trades / 1 win / 1 loss. Net positive.
Friday 27 Mar — SPX 3/3, RUT 3/3
SPX: Clean close to the week. Three trades, three wins, nothing to see here. The system delivered into a volatile Friday PCE session and a pre-market that was popping and dropping. Didn’t care.
- Trade 1: 1st BO. 67.7% ROC from a $19 move.
- Trade 2: 66.7% ROC from a $21 move.
- Trade 3: 67.7% ROC from a $23 move.
3 trades / 3 wins / 0 losses.
RUT: Three trades, three wins, all in the same consistent ROC band. The kind of session that closes a tough week on exactly the right note.
- Trade 1: 67.5% ROC from a $13 move.
- Trade 2: 67.7% ROC from a $10 move.
- Trade 3: 64.5% ROC from a $10 move.
3 trades / 3 wins / 0 losses.
Week In Numbers
SPX
- Trades: 16
- Wins: 13 / Losses: 3
- Win rate: 81.3%
- Total index P&L: $233
RUT
- Trades: 9
- Wins: 8 / Losses: 1
- Win rate: 88.9%
- Total index P&L: $116
Combined
- Total trades: 25
- Total wins: 21 / Total losses: 4
- Win rate: 84%
- Combined index P&L: $349
The Week That Was
The macro backdrop this week was the noisiest of the conflict so far — and that is saying something.
Monday delivered the TACO. Instance 848. A 200-point ES swing on a social media post, followed by Iran denying any talks existed, followed by the market keeping most of Monday’s gains anyway because it had decided it was going to be a relief day and wasn’t going to let the facts complicate that decision.
Wednesday brought the 15-point peace plan via Pakistan. Oil crashed 4.7%. Futures jumped. Asia rallied. Then Tehran called it non-viable within the same session and issued its own five-point counter. Point 1: sovereign control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Thursday was brutal for the broad market — S&P -1.74%, Nasdaq worst session since the war began, Meta -$140 billion in a day. For the Poppers it was a nearly full-tilt RUT session that a cup of tea and some ear lobes turned into a very profitable afternoon.
Friday extended the April 6 deadline and closed a week where the system proved exactly what it is built to prove: the macro noise is real, the process is indifferent to it, and done by lunch is not a boast, it is a description.
The chaos was real. The system did not care. That is the point.
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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