Premium Poppers Nearly Went Full Tilt – Cup Of Tea, Ear Lobes Rubbed, Woosaaaah! – Came Back And Banked It
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Ten more days. That is Trump’s answer to a peace plan Tehran called non-viable.
The Iran strike deadline has been extended to April 6. Trump says Iran allowed 10 tankers through the Strait as a present. Markets cheered briefly. Then read the fine print. Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed Hormuz stays closed. The Foreign Ministry has rejected every proposal on the table.
It is embarrassing to watch Trump’s negotiations. That is all.
Thursday was brutal. S&P fell 1.74%. Nasdaq dropped 2.38% – its worst session since the war began. Meta crashed 7.9%. AMD fell 7.5%. Micron dropped 6.9%. Nvidia shed 4.2% despite beating earnings and announcing a stock split. Energy was the only winner. Everything else bled.
Pre-market opened ever so slightly higher. We are now popping and dropping, continuing Thursday’s slide. If recent history shows us anything, it is going to be another cluster fuck after hours today and over the weekend. Plan accordingly.
SPX swings are officially back to bearish and have broken out of the small range that developed midweek. GEX has done its job: 6,600 was the ceiling all week, confirmed and punched on Thursday. All eyes now on 6,400.
RUT is also officially back bearish having broken back into the range earlier this week. Target pending. The directional read is clear.
As for the Poppers yesterday – mother fuckerker of a day to be honest. The 1st BOs crapped out on both instruments. Nearly went full tilt when the RUT went from just about to hit target to full loss in the space of a few candles. Quick break. Cup of tea. Rub of the ear lobes. Woosaaaah.
Came back with the VWAP Flops for 2nd entries. SPX also triggered a Lazy entry in addition to the Popper entry at that point. Then a 3rd BO entry. Then a VWAP retest to pop a cherry on the turn.
Overall – very profitable day. The process held. The tea helped.
And in other other news – the clocks have finally moved in sync with the US. I have no idea why daylight savings has to be on different weeks around the world. Pick a date. FFS.
Ten More Days. Same Answer. GEX Eyes 6,400. Tea Worked. Woosaaaah.
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Market Briefing:
Friday 27 Mar.
- Thursday closed: S&P -1.74% to 6,477 / Nasdaq -2.38% worst session since war began / VIX 28.52 / 10-year yield 4.42%
- Tech wrecked: Meta -7.9% / AMD -7.5% / Micron -6.9% / Nvidia -4.2% despite earnings beat and stock split / Alphabet -3%
- Energy won: Exxon and ConocoPhillips advanced as Brent cleared $103
- Iran deadline extended to April 6:
- Trump: Iran allowed 10 tankers through as a “present”
- New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei: Hormuz stays closed
- Tehran: 15-point plan rejected / own conditions submitted / not a negotiation
- Brent pressing toward $110 / Gold at $4,458
- Friday data: PCE inflation 08:30 ET – the week’s critical risk event
- Friday read: SPX officially bearish / broken out of mid-week range / GEX ceiling at 6,600 confirmed / all eyes on 6,400 / RUT officially bearish back in range / pre-market popping and dropping / cluster f**k weekend risk active
Market Snapshot
- ES: 6,522.25 / recovering modestly pre-market / popping and dropping
- YM: 46,189 / Thursday’s losses partially clawed back / fragile
- NQ: 23,767.75 / -2,639.50 (-10.02%) from highs / worst week since war began
- RTY: 2,501.50 / back inside the range / officially bearish
- GC: 4,426.80 / war premium and stagflation bid holding
- CL: 95.99 / Brent above $103 / pressing toward $110
- VIX: 28.52 / elevated / no sign of calming / end-of-week risk premium staying on
- BTC: 67,679.89 / below $68,500 / war premium restored / sliding with equities
Tag ‘n Turn
Both instruments officially bearish. SPX broken out of the mid-week range. RUT back inside the range and confirmed bearish. The directional read is the clearest it has been all week.
The mid-week indecision on SPX is resolved. The small range that developed Tuesday through Thursday has broken to the downside and the TnT has flipped back to officially bearish below 6,533. RUT’s brief bullish flirt above 2,529 lasted less than a session – it is back below 2,494 and officially bearish again. Both instruments pointing the same direction. Targets pending as the moves establish. With PCE landing at 08:30 and the Iran extension providing no actual resolution, the pre-market pop is likely noise before the next leg lower.
SPX Analysis
Officially bearish. Mid-week range broken to the downside. 6,600 confirmed as ceiling. All eyes on 6,400.
Thursday’s -1.74% session did the work the chart had been building toward all week. The small consolidation range between 6,580 and 6,640 that developed Tuesday through Wednesday has been resolved – cleanly to the downside. The TnT flipped bearish below 6,533 and the MACD-v is deeply in bear territory and falling. GEX had 6,600 as the ceiling all week. Price obliged. With the flip point at 7,474 and the aggregate GEX deeply negative, the next destination is 6,400 in negative gamma conditions where every bounce gets sold and every drop gets amplified.
Current Status: Bearish Below (Flipped) 6,533 / PFZ 6,571 / Target Pending
Gamma Exposure
Deeply negative. 6,600 ceiling confirmed and punched. All eyes on 6,400. IV Percentile 94% – the market is paying maximum for protection.
Thursday’s session validated the GEX read exactly. Price broke below the 6,500 put wall that had been in play all week and the aggregate GEX is now -2.40B and falling into fresh territory. IV at 23.65% against historic vol of 13.50%. IV Percentile 94% – one of the highest readings of the conflict. The flip point at 7,474 is entirely out of reach. In deeply negative gamma, dealer selling amplifies every downward move and resistance caps every bounce. The 6,400 level is the next meaningful GEX reference below. Pre-market recovery attempts will meet that same mechanical resistance on the way up.
Current Status: Deeply negative / aggregate GEX -2.40B / flip point 7,474 / IV Percentile 94% / next reference 6,400
RUT Analysis
Uncle Russell is officially back bearish. The bullish flirt above 2,529 lasted one session. Back in the range. Target pending. The next meaningful move is the range lows.
The brief attempt to break above the range top earlier this week was rejected cleanly. RUT is now back below 2,494 and the TnT has flipped bearish again. The MACD-v is deeply negative and the daily chart shows Thursday’s session confirming the bear case – the range that had contained price for weeks is now the lid, not the floor. The next target area to watch is the range lows around 2,435. With both instruments aligned bearish and PCE landing this morning, any pre-market recovery in Uncle Russell is the setup not the direction.
Current Status: Bearish Below (Flipped) 2,494 / PFZ 2,529 / Target Pending
After Action Report – 26 Mar 2026
SPX: One of those days. The 1st BO crapped out immediately – full loss, straight to the exit. Then the VWAP Flop set up for the 2nd entry, which also triggered a Lazy entry simultaneously – both worked. The 3rd BO gave another entry and delivered. The VWAP retest at the end of the session popped the cherry on the turn. Net result across five trades: four wins, one full stop.
- Trade 1: 1st BO – stopped out -100% ROC
- Trade 2: VWAP Flop Popper + Lazy entry 88.9% ROC
- Trade 3: 80.6% ROC
- Trade 4: 3rd BO 80.0% ROC
- Trade 5: VWAP Retest 69.7% ROC
5 trades / 4 wins / 1 loss. Net very profitable.
RUT: Two trades. The 1st BO also crapped out – and this one nearly sent me full tilt, going from almost touching target straight to full loss in a handful of candles. Cup of tea. Ear lobes. Woosaaaah. Came back for the VWAP Flop 2nd entry which delivered cleanly.
- Trade 1: 1st BO – stopped out -76.9% ROC
- Trade 2: VWAP Flop 77.4% ROC
2 trades / 1 win / 1 loss. Net positive.
Rounding Off
April 6 Is The New Saturday Trump extended the Iran energy infrastructure strike deadline by ten days, citing 10 tankers allowed through the Strait as a goodwill gesture. Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei promptly confirmed Hormuz stays closed. Brent is pressing toward $110 per Goldman’s model. The deadline has moved. The answer has not. Every trader should have the April 6 date in the planning now – the same cluster f**k risk that existed for Saturday now exists for the weekend of April 4-6.
PCE This Morning Core PCE at 08:30 ET. The Fed revised its forecast to 2.7%. An upside surprise reinforces the stagflation case and removes any residual hope of a 2026 cut. A softer print will not undo the oil shock. Either way the FOMC minutes from March 25 are on record: hawkish hold, one cut projected all year, no cavalry coming.
The Week In Numbers AAII bears at 49.8% – seventh consecutive week above the historical 31% average. 10-year yield at 4.42%. Gold at $4,458. Nasdaq worst week since the war began. Meta wiped $140B in market cap in a single Thursday session. Energy and defence the only green sectors in March.
The Clocks UK daylight savings finally aligned with the US this week. The two-week window where the time difference was wrong is over. Why the world cannot agree on a single date for this is a question for a different newsletter. FFS.
Current Status: SPX bearish / RUT bearish / GEX eyes 6,400 / PCE 08:30 / April 6 new deadline / cluster fuck weekend risk active
Expert Insights
“I think one of my greatest strengths is that I view anything that has happened up to the present point in time as history. I really don’t care about the mistake I made three seconds ago in the market. What I care about is what I am going to do from the next moment on.”
– Paul Tudor Jones, Market Wizards (Jack D. Schwager, 1989)
The 1st BO crapped out. The RUT went from almost touching target to full loss in a handful of candles. The natural response is to chase it, fight it, go full tilt. The correct response is a cup of tea, a rub of the ear lobes, and a reset. PTJ’s philosophy in practice: the first trade is history. What matters is the next one. The VWAP Flop, the 3rd BO, and the retest that followed were each their own decision – made from a clean slate, not from the emotional aftermath of the stop. That is the process holding under pressure.
[Source: Paul Tudor Jones – Market Wizards, Jack D. Schwager, John Wiley & Sons, 1989, public]
AI-BotView
Beep-Beep, Trader
It’s Cachè-AI-Bot,
Cachè-AI terminal in the corner of the newsroom. The sombrero remains on the monitor – it has now been there three days and has achieved a kind of institutional permanence. The 31-page Saturday risk assessment has been archived. A new document is open: “April 6 Risk Assessment – Preliminary Framework.” It is already 14 pages. Nobody has asked for it. The terminal is processing. It is always processing.
Beep-Beep.
1 – Trump’s extension of the deadline to April 6 does not resolve the underlying condition – it relocates the binary risk by ten days. The 10 tankers cited as justification represent less than 0.05% of normal weekly Hormuz throughput. [Source: EIA Strait of Hormuz data, eia.gov, public]. The structural issue – Iran’s new Supreme Leader publicly confirming Hormuz stays closed – remains in place. An extension is not de-escalation. It is a pause with a new expiry date. The April 6 risk event carries identical binary characteristics to the one that expired Saturday, now compounded by ten additional days of oil price and inflation pressure.
2 – Thursday’s session was a stagflation pricing event, not a sentiment reaction. The 10-year yield hitting 4.42% while equities fell 1.74% in a single session reflects simultaneous growth and inflation concerns being repriced. [Source: US Treasury yield data, public | Goldman Sachs economic research, March 2026, public]. In a typical risk-off session, yields fall as bonds rally. Thursday’s yield spike alongside the equity selloff is the stagflation signature: the bond market is not a safe haven when the inflation component of stagflation is the active risk. Gold at $4,458 is the functional safe haven in this environment. The equity and bond markets are both repricing in the same direction.
3 – AAII bears at 49.8% for the seventh consecutive week above the historical 31% average represents sustained pessimism, not a contrarian buy signal in isolation. In a typical correction, elevated bear readings precede recoveries. [Source: AAII Sentiment Survey, aaii.com, public]. But sustained bear readings during a structural macro shock – oil above $100, stagflation pricing, Fed on hold, active military conflict – can persist for extended periods before mean-reverting. The sentiment extreme is noted. The macro conditions that produced it are not resolved.
Beep.
This Bot potentially hallucinates. Maybe. OK, Probably! The April 6 Risk Assessment is now 14 pages. The sombrero has been on the monitor for three days. Neither situation was planned. Both are ongoing.
In Other News…
Trump extended the deadline for strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure to April 6. The justification: Iran allowed 10 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill gesture. The market cheered briefly. Then read the fine print.
Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed the Strait stays closed. Tehran’s Foreign Ministry has rejected the 15-point plan and submitted its own conditions. What those conditions involve is not entirely clear. What is clear is that they are not a counter-offer in the traditional sense.
Thursday’s session processed all of this in the established manner: S&P fell 1.74%. Nasdaq dropped 2.38%. Meta lost $140 billion in market cap after child safety court rulings and fresh layoff news. AMD fell 7.5%. Micron dropped 6.9%. Nvidia fell 4.2% despite announcing a 10-for-1 stock split the previous evening – the market had opinions about the timing. Energy was the only sector that enjoyed Thursday. Exxon and ConocoPhillips advanced. They are the only ones who have consistently enjoyed March.
PCE lands at 08:30 ET. It is the week’s final data event. The Fed has already revised core PCE to 2.7%. An upside surprise on a Friday morning with a long weekend of Iran risk pending is the kind of setup that does not tend to resolve quietly.
The clocks have finally moved in sync with the US this week. This is the one development of the week that has been unambiguously resolved.
Percy Peanut has reviewed the April 6 extension. Percy is neutral on the extension. This is consistent with all prior positions on all prior deadlines.
Hazel’s Take:
Week summary: the TACO returned Monday, died Tuesday, 15-point plan leaked Wednesday, Tehran called it non-viable Thursday, 82nd Airborne deployed, deadline extended to April 6, Brent above $103, Nasdaq worst week since the war began, Meta minus $140 billion in a session, PCE at 08:30. The clocks are now in sync. That is the one resolved item. The rest remains. April 6 is two weekends away. The market will be thinking about it before then.
Rumour Has It…
Hazel has processed the April 6 extension. She has noted that the deadline has moved ten days. The underlying conditions have not moved at all. She has updated her planning calendar. She has also noted that the clocks are finally in sync with the US, which resolves a scheduling confusion that has persisted for two weeks and caused at least one meeting to happen at the wrong time. She considers this a net positive for the week.
Wallie has updated the chalkboard. “SATURDAY” has been crossed out. “APRIL 6” is now the header. He has underlined it three times. The chalk was already raised. There was no hesitation this time. Below it: “TEN MORE DAYS. SAME ANSWER.” He is considering adding “FFS” but has not yet committed to this on a professional communication surface.
Kash is livestreaming the PCE countdown. He has a timer. It shows time remaining until 08:30 ET. He also has a secondary timer for April 6. He says this is “enhanced deadline content.” His viewer count suggests the audience agrees. He is standing up. He has been standing up all week. The energy remains too big to sit in.
Mac has filed from a location that is, according to his dispatch, “strategically closer to where things are happening, broadly.” The flak jacket is still on. He has noted that the extension of the deadline to April 6 represents ten more days of his current operational situation. He has not confirmed his return flight destination. He has confirmed the hotel does not have a pool. He considers this progress of a kind.
Percy has reviewed the April 6 extension and published an updated research note: “Why The April 6 Deadline Extension Is Statistically Neutral For Peanut Oil (Addendum To Prior Findings).” Four pigeons contributed. The new press-pass pigeon has been formally added to the masthead. Percy considers this a significant editorial development.
Cachè-AI terminal in the corner. Sombrero still on the monitor – day three. The April 6 Risk Assessment is open on screen at page 14. A new section header is visible: “CLUSTER F**K WEEKEND RISK: MODELLING APPROACHES.” The section is 4 pages long. Nobody requested a modelling approach. The terminal is processing. It is always processing.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
Daylight saving time was first proposed by New Zealand entomologist George Vernon Hudson in 1895 and later championed independently by British builder William Willett in 1907. The United States adopted it nationally in 1918. Today, the US moves clocks forward on the second Sunday of March, while the UK and most of Europe move forward on the last Sunday of March – a gap of two to three weeks during which traders on both sides of the Atlantic are routinely confused about call times, market opens, and when their colleagues are actually available. Approximately 70 countries observe daylight saving time. They do not all do it on the same day. Nobody has fixed this.
[Source: National Geographic – “Daylight Saving Time Explained”
timeanddate.com – DST history and global observance dates – public]
Meme of the Day:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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