Crude Oil: Break Back Inside The Prior Range – Break-In Pullback Pattern Active – Range Highs To Range Lows
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Well folks. Weird shit is happening again. And when weird shit happens, I usually like to take a step back.
The markets are reacting – perhaps overreacting yet again – to something positive from the Middle Eastern war.
A peace suggestion. Not talks. Suggestions. Bunny fingers. With conditions.
Is that like friends with benefits?
The indexes look more like lower highs with a rally on surprise news.
And I am not going to lie – just like that other Monday with the Trump tweet – I am baffled ‘t fuck.
Sometimes I think about Michael Burry’s departure from the markets to write newsletters. His reason was that he was confused by the market’s behaviour. Then I am reminded that the markets can stay irrational longer than any of us can stay solvent. I forget who first said it – someone important – could have been Keynes, could have been Graham, could have been Tupac for all I know. Bah. Who cares.
So – going to stand out of the index swings for a minute. Let the dust settle, just like last week. And crikey, was that really just last week?
Focus on certainties rather than confusion.
Crude oil enters stage left.
This is continuing to be a clear chart to read despite the high correlation to the Middle Eastern conflict. Ranges are stacking nicely. We have just seen an attempted break up and out – but the MACD-v was at a bullish extreme – and when we discussed this on Monday’s group call we were expecting price to pause and, as long as we stayed above the range highs, a continuation was likely.
Peace news changes that. Thankfully no major overreaction – just the potential for oil to start flowing again. Price has now broken back inside the prior range. Break-in, pullback, and we can anticipate a trip from the range highs to the range lows. One of my 6 money making patterns. Clear as a bell.
Gold futures are equally easy to read.
Something mentioned last week: we had the potential to see price start to move higher – especially as we are in post-crash territory, over 30% from highs to the recent lows. Price turning around with a lovely V-entry on the daily and on the 60-minute chart it looks like a clear range. A clean break up and out and price is starting to trend nicely. Target 1 at $4,900. Target 2 at $5,000.
As for the Poppers yesterday – nothing from me. I was reading the MACD-v as in a bullish extreme on both SPX and RUT and was expecting price to grind it out in the morning with the potential for an afternoon breakout, just like we saw on Monday. A lucky break while I test out new ideas and concepts – but I certainly missed the bull break move. Can’t win them all.
Let’s see what Wednesday brings.
Oil Range To Range Lows. Gold To $4,900. Index Dust Still Settling. 9pm ET Is The Only Number.
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Market Briefing:Â Wed 1 Apr 2026
Wednesday 1 Apr – Q2 begins.
- Tuesday closed: S&P +1.33% / Nasdaq +1.8% / XLK +4% / strongest session since May on Iran de-escalation signal
- Nvidia +5.6% / Microsoft +3.1% / Meta +6.67% led tech recovery
- Energy faces mean reversion as oil drops / RH -17% after hours on weak guidance / McCormick -5.6% on Unilever deal
- Overnight extends gains: ES +0.49% / NQ +0.91% / RTY +0.70% / Gold +1.13% / VIX -1.98% to 24.74
- The catalyst: Iran’s president signalled readiness to end the war / Trump said US forces leave in two to three weeks
- Has Wall Street front-run a ceasefire that doesn’t exist yet?
- White House: Hormuz reopening is not a core objective
- WTI -2.27% to $99.25 / still $28 above pre-war levels / BCA Research warns supply losses double by April 19
- Data today: ADP jobs and ISM manufacturing before the open / Fed speakers Musalem and Barr
- Tonight: Trump addresses the nation at 9pm ET / binary event – credible exit path sends risk higher / ambiguity sends oil back above $100
- Wednesday read: standing aside from index swings / focus on CL and Gold small account setups / 9pm ET is the only number that matters today
Market Snapshot
- ES: 6,599.75 / +32.25 (+0.49%) / overnight bid extending Tuesday’s relief
- YM: 46,797 / +234 (+0.50%) / Q2 opens
- NQ: 26,276.75 / +234 (+0.91%) / tech led Tuesday’s reversal
- RTY: 2,528.70 / +17.60 (+0.70%) / extending recovery
- GC: 4,752.70 / +53.10 (+1.13%) / V-entry confirmed / target $4,900 then $5,000
- CL: 99.25 / -2.31 (-2.27%) / break back inside prior range / break-in pullback active
- VIX: 24.74 / -0.50 (-1.98%) / easing but 9pm ET risk premium stays on
Tag ‘n Turn
Standing aside from index swings today. The index action looks confusing – lower highs on surprise news – and when the read is baffled ‘t fuck, the correct move is to let the dust settle. Same call as last Monday.
Crude Oil
Break back inside the prior range confirmed. Break-in pullback pattern active. Anticipating a trip from range highs to range lows. One of the 6 money making patterns. Clear as a bell.
The CL chart has been the clearest read in the room throughout this conflict – high correlation to the Middle Eastern news but the pattern sequence has been clean and readable regardless. Ranges stacking. Last week saw an attempted break up and out with the MACD-v at a bullish extreme. Monday’s group call flagged the expectation: pause, stay above range highs, then continuation. Peace news changed the dynamic – price has now broken back inside the prior range. That confirms the break-in setup. The pullback from current levels to the range lows is the anticipated move. The pattern is clear.
Gold
V-entry confirmed on the daily. Break up and out on the hourly. Trending nicely. Target 1 at $4,900. Target 2 at $5,000.
Gold was flagged last week as the interesting setup developing. Post-crash territory – over 30% from highs to the recent lows – with the V-entry forming on the daily chart exactly as described. The hourly chart has now confirmed the break up and out of the range and price is starting to trend nicely with the MACD-v confirming bull momentum. Target 1 is $4,900. Target 2 is $5,000. Clean, simple, readable.
Post Trade DeBriefing – 31 Mar 2026
SPX: No trades. Was reading the MACD-v as at a bullish extreme on both instruments and expected price to grind through the morning with a potential afternoon breakout, same as Monday. The morning grind arrived as expected. The afternoon breakout was bigger and cleaner than anticipated and I was not in it. A lucky break while testing new ideas and concepts. Can’t win them all.
RUT: No trades. Same read, same reasoning.
0 trades / 0 wins / 0 losses. The system is allowed a day off. The process is still intact.
Rounding Off
The 9pm Event Trump addresses the nation tonight on Iran.
White House framing: the objective is Iran’s missiles and drones, not Hormuz reopening. That distinction matters. A ceasefire that leaves the Strait closed is not the oil market resolution the rally has priced in. WTI is still $28 above pre-war levels despite Tuesday’s drop. BCA Research warns supply losses double by April 19. The binary is simple: credible exit path tonight sends risk higher and oil lower; ambiguity sends oil back above $100.
Data Before The Open ADP private payrolls and ISM manufacturing print this morning – the first hard data testing whether war-driven energy costs have visibly broken demand. Job openings fell to six-year lows in February. Any ADP miss confirms the Moody’s 49% recession model is tracking correctly. Fed speakers Musalem and Barr follow.
March Closed Ugly S&P worst monthly decline since 2022. Ten of eleven sectors negative. Dow and Nasdaq confirmed corrections. Only energy survived March – and now it faces mean reversion as oil retreats on peace hopes. Tuesday’s single session wiped two weeks of pain. Whether that is the start of Q2 recovery or another lower high is tonight’s question.
Michael Burry Had A Point He left active management because the markets were behaving in ways he could not confidently explain.
The markets can stay irrational longer than any of us can stay solvent. Keynes said it – or someone important, possibly Tupac. The correct response to baffled ‘t fuck is to focus on what is clear and wait for the rest to resolve itself. Oil and gold are clear. The indexes are not. Simple.
Current Status: Standing aside from index swings / CL break-in pullback active / Gold target $4,900 / Trump 9pm ET binary / ADP + ISM before open / April 6 Iran deadline still live
Expert Insights
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
– John Maynard Keynes, widely attributed, public domain
The attribution has been contested over the years – various versions have been linked to Keynes, Gary Shilling, and others – but the observation is timeless regardless of who first said it. Tupac, as suggested, has not been confirmed as a source. The specific application today: the indexes are behaving in ways that do not fit the standard pattern. Lower highs on surprise news, a single session wiping two weeks of losses, a ceasefire rally without a ceasefire. Standing aside is not a loss. It is the correct response to irrational price action that has not yet resolved into a tradeable signal. Focus on oil. Focus on gold. Let the index dust settle.
[Source: Widely attributed to John Maynard Keynes – specific origin debated /
Gary Shilling attribution also documented – public domain]
AI-BotView
Beep-Beep, Trader
It’s Cachè-AI-Bot,
Cachè-AI terminal in the corner of the newsroom. The April 6 Risk Assessment is now 34 pages after Tuesday’s de-escalation news required an entirely new section on ceasefire-without-Hormuz scenarios. Page 29 covers the friends-with-benefits diplomatic framework. Nobody asked for page 29. The terminal is processing. It is always processing.
Beep-Beep.
1 – Iran’s president signalling readiness to end the war while the White House simultaneously states Hormuz reopening is not a core objective creates a specific gap between what the equity market priced and what the oil market heard. Equities rallied on peace. Oil fell but remains $28 above pre-war levels. [Source: White House briefing, public, 31 March 2026 | WTI crude price data, public]. The gap between the equity reading and the oil reading reflects different assumptions about what ending the war actually means for supply. A ceasefire that leaves Hormuz partially or fully restricted is not the supply resolution the S&P +1.33% session priced. Tonight’s 9pm address is where those two markets find out which one read the signal correctly.
2 – ADP private payrolls and ISM manufacturing printing on the same morning as the biggest equity relief session since May creates a specific sequencing risk. If either data point disappoints – and job openings at six-year lows in February is the relevant context – the market has less fundamental support for the Tuesday move than the headline suggests. [Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS data, February 2026, bls.gov, public | ISM manufacturing historical data, ismworld.org, public]. The relief rally was sentiment-driven. The data this morning is the first test of whether the fundamental picture supports it.
3 – The Keynes attribution Phil referenced is genuinely contested in financial literature. The most documented version appears in Gary Shilling’s 1993 Forbes column, with Keynes association becoming widespread thereafter but without a confirmed primary source text. [Source: Gary Shilling, Forbes, 1993, public | Quoteinvestigator.com – “The Market Can Remain Irrational” research entry, public]. This is noted not to correct Phil – the observation is correct regardless of attribution – but because Cachè-AI processes attribution uncertainty as a separate data category from content uncertainty. Tupac’s likelihood as original source: 0.003%. Filed.
Beep.
This Bot potentially hallucinates. Maybe. OK, Probably! Page 29 covers the friends-with-benefits diplomatic framework. It runs to two pages. The Tupac attribution probability is logged. Nobody asked for either. Here we are.
In Other News…
Iran’s president signalled readiness to end the war on Tuesday. Trump said US forces leave in two to three weeks. Markets had the strongest session since May. Nvidia gained 5.6%. Meta gained 6.67%. The XLK technology ETF added 4% in a single session that erased two weeks of losses.
The White House simultaneously clarified that Hormuz reopening is not a core objective of the campaign. Hegseth listed Iran’s missiles and drones as the target, not the Strait. Oil fell 4.34% on Tuesday but WTI is still $28 above pre-war levels. The equity market and the oil market reached different conclusions from the same announcement. One of them is wrong. We find out tonight at 9pm ET.
Trump addresses the nation at 9pm with an important update on Iran. A Kuwaiti tanker was struck by an Iranian drone in Dubai waters this morning. March ended as the worst month for US stocks since 2022 – ten of eleven sectors negative. Only energy survived, and energy is now facing mean reversion as oil retreats.
ADP payrolls and ISM manufacturing arrive before the open. The first hard data of Q2. Job openings are at six-year lows. The ceasefire rally may or may not have the fundamental support to survive contact with the numbers.
Percy Peanut has reviewed the peace suggestions. Percy notes these are suggestions, not talks. Percy is neutral on suggestions. This is consistent with all prior positions on all prior peace-adjacent communications.
Hazel’s Take:
Wednesday morning: Iran signalled readiness to end the war, Trump said forces leave in two to three weeks, S&P +1.33% on Tuesday strongest since May, Nvidia +5.6%, Meta +6.67%, VIX down to 24.74, but Hormuz reopening is not the stated objective, WTI still $28 above pre-war levels, Kuwaiti tanker struck in Dubai waters this morning, ADP and ISM before the open, Trump at 9pm ET. The indexes look like lower highs on surprise news. Oil and gold are the clear charts. 9pm ET is the only number that matters today.
Rumour Has It…
Hazel has updated the Q2 calendar. Three items were already on it before Q2 started. She has added a fourth: 9pm ET tonight. She has highlighted it in red. She has also noted that a Kuwaiti tanker was struck in Dubai waters this morning – which she considers a mixed signal regarding the pace of de-escalation – and filed it under “noted.”
Wallie has updated the chalkboard. “9PM ET” has replaced “APRIL 6” as the primary header. Underlined three times. No hesitation. Below it: “CEASEFIRE WITHOUT HORMUZ = NOT THE DEAL THE MARKET PRICED.” He is not putting a question mark on this one.
Kash is livestreaming the 9pm countdown. He started at 6am. He has renamed the stream “THE ONLY NUMBER THAT MATTERS.” Viewer count is at a conflict high. He is standing up. He plans to stand until 9pm. He has not sat down since March 17. He is beginning to question whether chairs are necessary.
Mac has filed from a location described as “in the general area of where the announcement will matter most geographically.” The flak jacket is still on. He considers tonight’s address the most important filing opportunity of the conflict. He has requested a direct line to the newsroom for 9pm. Hazel has noted the request. She has not confirmed it. Return flight: not confirmed.
Percy has reviewed the peace suggestions and published an immediate note: “Why Peace Suggestions With Conditions Are Statistically Neutral For Peanut Oil (Interim Findings – Pre-9pm ET).” Three pigeons contributed. The press-pass pigeon has flagged the interim nature of the findings. Percy is aware. A post-9pm update is planned.
Cachè-AI terminal in the corner. April 6 Risk Assessment at 34 pages. Page 29 covers the friends-with-benefits diplomatic framework. Two pages. Nobody asked. Beep.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
The Keynes quote:
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”
is one of the most cited in financial markets – and one of the most contested. Research into its origins suggests it appeared in print most clearly in a 1993 Forbes column by economist Gary Shilling, and its association with Keynes became widespread in the following decade without a confirmed primary source in Keynes’s own writing.
Alternative attributions include A. Gary Shilling himself as the actual author. Keynes did write extensively about market irrationality in his 1936 work The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money – so the sentiment is genuinely his, even if the specific phrasing may not be.
Tupac Shakur’s contribution to the literature on market irrationality remains unverified.
[Source: John Maynard Keynes – The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, 1936, public domain |
Quoteinvestigator.com – “The Market Can Remain Irrational” research entry, public]
Meme of the Day:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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