The VIX Goes Through 16, And The Whole Market Stops Participating

Market Snapshot

The VIX has passed 16 without notice or consultation. Affected parties will be informed in due course.

All the main stock indexes are pushing lower overnight.

• SPX 7,631.47, down 54.67 (0.71%). Below its 2 week vwap. Full read below.
• ES 7,622.00, down 25.50 (0.33%). Asian session range, then a clear break down and out. Full read below.
• BTC 76,566.39, down 1.10%. The crown continues to develop. Full read below.
• NazQuack (NQ) 28,946.50. Pushing lower overnight with the rest of them.
• Uncle Dow (YM) 52,736, down 111 (0.21%). Same.
• Uncle Russ (RTY) 2,917.7, down 8.5 (0.29%). Same again.
• Crude (CL) 90.42, down 0.26 (0.29%). No read today.
• VIX 16.80, up 0.47 (2.88%).

VIX smashed through 16 and is nudging at 17. This does look like the start of something, and could well spike to 20 and beyond if the correction I’ve been calling for finally develops.

Gold 4,355.7, down 20.0 (0.46%).

Gold is making a guest appearance, as we are now seeing a dip back into the zone I was assessing for the potential real push higher. More in the future as the patterns develop, but the location is now good.

SPX – Stripping the main tools off again to get a clearer view of price.

Looking at the details for the swings, and once again stripping the main tools off to get a clearer view of price, you can see SPX is below its 2 week vwap, which would suggest a trending price movement of the bearish persuasion. Above 7,650 and we can start calling for that bear stall and more meandering.

The PnF charts are showing a clear breach of support, and a solid move below 7,600 signals the clear break down. The gap at the open should clear that level for me.

Below the 2 week vwap, and trending the bearish way.

ES Futures – Adding the futures into the mix for a change again.

Mainly as I’m prepping for the 24hr data to match up with the 24hr trading on the global exchange. Right now I’m using the futures as a proxy for the cash data. The patterns will be the same, the numbers slightly different.

What we can see here is a nice Asian session range and a clear break down and out. Arguably a break of the UK ORB levels on 20 and 60 suggests a bear move. Price is below the current day’s vwap bands, which also suggests a bearish trending move.

PnF also shows a clear break of support, with the added data view compared to the cash version.

See the bear be the bear!

Crypto, BTC – The rounding top, or crown as some folks may call it.

Over on BTC the rounding top, or crown as some folks may call it, is continuing to develop nicely and is approaching the first assessment level. A push through here and the 75,000 level could lead to a quick drop lower into the target 1 zone, and potentially into the target 2 zone. Simples.

Trading the range from the range highs to the range lows.

Range highs to range lows. Simples.

Sentiment – A handful of stocks have been driving the indexes higher.

Over on the sentiment charts we can see clear market participation flipping from the number of stocks holding the 20, 50 and 200 period moving average, to pushing below these levels.

Below the 50 floor level. Below the 40 floor level. Below the 58 ceiling level.

It turns out the rest of the market has been quietly voting the other way since April.

These have been the general market participation floors since April this year, so while a handful of stocks have been driving the stock indexes higher, it can now be seen that the larger market participation may push the whole thing lower.

And of course we are officially in correction season. Mid terms, bear cycles, etc etc.

So the bigger question now is, will we see something in the first or second half of the month?

Minimal market participation since 20th April 2026.

Wall of Wins

…And of course lastly but by no means least, the Premium Popper Wall of Wins is full again. Well done everyone.

• Don E. Closed SPX Bull for 50%.
• Don E. Took a put credit spread when price bounced up from VWAP, for 40%.
• Richard H. SPX BO1 SS7645 win transformed to a butterfly for $0.6c profit.
• Scott K. 2 trades. Took the first BO on SPX, bullish spread, closed for 44%. Had first taken the 1st BO on RUT for a bearish spread. It blew past the stop loss without triggering, but ended up finally closing for 57%, so not really a win.
• Jenny D. Closed 1st BO on SPX for 54% and 1st BO on RUT for 60%. Currently upside down on the SPX 3rd BO, having missed the opportunity to close early after the bounce off the VWAP. Will be just short of breakeven for the day if the full loss is taken there.
• Bill B. 2W and 1L for the day. Got the SPX 1st BO and a bounce off VWAP. Cut the SPX 3rd BO for a small loss. Dollar positive for the day.

Scott, that one counts. The stop not being honoured on RUT is a known liquidity issue, and a little bit of good fortune kept you in for the win.

It’s called the Wall of Wins, but there are lessons in the losses and the errors too, so those still count. I appreciate the openness and the transparency.