Only Uncle Russ Is Behaving, And NFP Could Spin It All Again

These markets are as annoying as a haemorrhoid on a horse ride!

With NFP out in around 90 minutes as I type this, we could see this release spin prices around and around again.

And as is usually the case when I’m holding such a strong bearish stance, I am genuinely baffled to fuck! I am again reminded of the saying, the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

It’s really time to get back to the basics and mechanics and reclaim my sanity.

Right then, let’s get into the charts.

Market Snapshot

• ES 7,758.25, up 9.00 (0.12%). No read today.
• NazQuack (NQ) 29,651.00. No read today.
• Uncle Dow (YM) 53,698, down 22 (0.04%). No read today.
• Gold 4,515.2, down 5.1 (0.11%). No read today.
• Crude (CL) 90.87, down 0.80 (0.87%). No read today.
• VIX 14.22, down 0.09 (0.63%). No read today.
• BTC 81,101.98. No read today.

Uncle Russ (RTY) 2,968.1, up 0.8 (0.03%).

The only chart that is really behaving seemingly normally is Russel. Definitively bearish. A one day rally and green overall doesn’t change that.

Expert Insights

The August employment report lands at 08:30 ET. Consensus is 55,000 payrolls against a prior of minus 23,000, with unemployment expected to hold at 4.1%. The forecast range runs all the way from 102,000 down to minus 25,000, which is unusually wide, and is exactly why a release like this can spin prices around and around.

The part worth knowing is that the reaction has flipped this cycle. Through 2024 and 2025 a weak number meant cuts and a relief rally. Right now a strong August print is the hawkish outcome, and a soft one is what takes September hike risk off the table. Anyone trading last year’s playbook this morning has it backwards.

Fun Fact

The initial August payroll figure has been revised lower four years in a row. So whatever prints at half past one this afternoon, the odds are it isn’t the number we end up with.