A 40 point gap should tag the upper band
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Today we see a 40 point move higher so far in the overnight session. Nasdaq follows in lockstep. Given that the Dow and Russell seem to be the opposite and resistant to following the rally, I still can’t help but think that tech, likely AI stocks, are once again driving the rally.
For now I’m resigned to the fact of following the footsteps of the trading systems.
Right then, let’s get into the charts.
Market Snapshot
The index has been made aware of the participation figures and has elected to proceed regardless.
- SPX 7,650.50, up 12.74 (0.17%). Bullish, with a reduced score. Full read below.
- RUT 2,860.40. Bullish with reduced position size. Full read below.
- BTC 81,604.27. The bear has given up the ghost. Full read below.
- ES 7,756.50. A 40 point move higher so far in the overnight session.
- NazQuack (NQ) 30,151.50.
- Uncle Dow (YM) 52,400, up 262 (0.50%).
- Uncle Russ (RTY) 2,897.5, up 17.0 (0.59%).
- Gold 4,388.0, down 27.9 (0.63%). No read today.
- Crude (CL) 93.92, down 1.55 (1.62%). No read today.
- VIX 14.97, up 0.15 (1.01%). Back under 16, and no read today.
Post Triple Witching – Seasonal and cyclical data is still yet to play out.
With September quarterly options expiration wrapping up on Friday, the Stock Trader’s Almanac has a reminder about what usually follows. The week immediately after expiration has historically been one of the weakest stretches of the month.
Going back to 1982, the DJIA has averaged a 0.68% decline that week, the S&P 500 a 0.71% fall, and the NASDAQ a 0.77% drop. The market has finished that week higher only 36.4% of the time for the DJIA, 31.8% for the S&P 500 and 45.5% for the NASDAQ.
Since 1990 it gets worse. The DJIA has averaged a 1.02% loss, and both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have averaged declines of 0.99%. The S&P 500 has been down 28 of the last 36, finishing higher only 22.2% of the time. The DJIA has risen just 9 times against 27 declines.
Seasonal and cyclical data is still yet to play out and the bear argument remains strong. That said, my nerves are “shot to shit” and my confidence for the bear move is starting to look a little tattered. That said, we are not out of the woods yet and I don’t hear a distant banjo yet.
The bear can still come calling.
SPX – Bullish, although with a reduced score in place.
As we look at the usual swing charts, SPX remains bullish although with a reduced score in place.
The 40 or so points higher that we can expect the market to gap, should the premarket move hold, should see the upper band get tagged for the first part of the bear setup.
This move higher should also take us to the upper range boundary around 7,700.
Another good place for the trip lower.
RUT – Struggling to move higher.
RUT is also bullish with reduced position size and struggling to move higher, so likely if there is a turn, not likely to see the upper band tag.
The PFZ level would likely trigger a bear setup, should a bear setup develop, at around the 2,845 level.
Not likely to see the upper band tag.
Crypto, BTC – The bear has finally given up the ghost.
Price is moving through the upper range boundary for a bull breakout, as the breakout pullback setup is overlapping the range highs.
There is also the bear move lower through approximately the 80,000 level as another good each way directional setup.
For now it’s bullish, and waiting for the move to develop.
Sentiment – The main stock index defies gravity and continues to rally.
Fewer stocks are holding the line every week. The index has not been told.
The market sentiment continues to push lower relative to their respective moving averages, while the main stock index defies gravity and continues to rally.
Minimal market participation since 20th April 2026.
Waiting for the index to take notice and catch up.
Meme of the Day:
xxx
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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