The futures sprinted to records on Monday. The cash never quite planted the flag.
A fresh bear tag printed on SPX and Uncle Russell. I’m ignoring it, and the data says why.
Crude could pop higher first. That’s not a problem, it’s the entry I want.
Five poppers bagged, and a gap that, the data insists, changed absolutely nothing.
Monday handed us a clean, happy story: a peace deal, cheaper oil, a record Dow. So why did the 2-year spend the day pricing a rate hike into Warsh’s first meeting? Let’s work out what the front end knows that the party didn’t.
...Stocks booked the Iran peace deal Monday, S&P up 1.49%, Nasdaq up 2.38%, Dow at a record. Oil paid the bill, down 5% to near $80.
The one number that mattered stayed unimpressed: the 2-year above 4%, above the policy rate, hike odds near 80%. The front end isn’t buying the relief.
Warsh gavels his first FOMC this week. A hold is 97% priced, so the dot plot and his debut tone, not the rate, are Wednesday’s actual event.
Fox sank nearly 18% to buy Roku for $22 billion. SpaceX held above $2 trillion on day two. Semiconductors clawed back part of Friday’s brutal rout.
Bitcoin reclaimed $65,500 even as roughly $3.4 billion left bitcoin ETFs over 11 days. Price went up, the money went out, and one of them is lying.
The single best headline of the year landed overnight: the US and Iran agreed to end a fourteen-week war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks did exactly what you’d draw up. The Nasdaq gapped 1.9%, the VIX fell to 17.68, oil dropped 5% to about $80.
...A 14-week war ends overnight and the tape does not hesitate.
One of my trades could pay 12x this week. The other is supposed to expire worthless.
Crude was screaming lower for days. Turns out it was the canary.
Gamma just flipped back positive. The options map you knew on Friday is gone.
Wall Street ended a war and priced it like a tax cut. NQ futures +1.9%, oil off 5% to $80, the VIX crushed to 17.68. Peace, payable next-day.
The number that mattered was the small one. The 2-year moved five basis points to 4.035%, taking the relief and keeping its powder for Warsh on Wednesday.
Bitcoin borrowed a 2.3% bounce off the stock market to about $65,800. The record $3.4B weekly ETF outflow declined to celebrate alongside it.
Defence sold the war it spent three months buying, Lockheed off 1.5% and AeroVironment down 7%, while Asia chips threw a 12% SoftBank-sized party.
The signing lands Friday in Switzerland, when US markets are shut for Juneteenth. The only thing that trades this week is the Fed, and the Fed has read the CPI.
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...⚓ Regime weathervane: The macro wind still blows higher-for-longer. The slow ship, sticky inflation plus a Warsh Fed in no rush, is pointed at a hold. Fast-tape relief rallies keep tacking against it; the front end keeps holding course. Cruise ship steady. Weathervane unchanged this edition.
...Thirty-eight TACOs deep and the tape still flinches. This one had teeth.
Uncle Russell quietly completed the move we have been calling for weeks. Now what?
Crude finally moved, and the name I gave the pattern turned out not to matter.
One open question decides everything before the bell. Reality, or another reversal?
Wall Street rallied 1.75% on a peace deal nobody has signed and inflation it chose not to notice, two separate acts of faith before most of us had breakfast.
Futures sit near flat into the open as SpaceX prepares to become the largest IPO ever, the same week chip stocks logged their worst single day since April 2025.
Bitcoin bounced above $63,700 on borrowed optimism, while four weeks of record ETF outflows and Strategy’s broken never-sell vow quietly disagree with the mood.
May inflation hit 4%, the hottest in three years, which leaves Warsh hired to cut rates and walking into a meeting on Tuesday where he plainly can’t.
A $1.78 trillion rocket debuts today and the peace remains unsigned, so Tuesday’s Fed gets to decide which of Thursday’s happy stories were actually true.