The dashboard graded FOMC as a bonus rather than a hazard, so the position went on at double size. $145 locked in, $645 live at the short strike through the statement, and the press conference took it away while I was doing something else entirely.
...FOMC came and went with a whipsaw, and the bearish swing stance got paid for it.
Follow through, or straight back to the grind? That is the only question this morning.
Crude’s push to $89 has started in earnest, and the wait turned out to be worth it.
BTC is a range within a range within a range, so I went looking somewhere else.
The most hawkish Fed split since 2016 produced a falling two-year and a thirty-year yield at 5.21%, the highest since 2007. Gold rose and the dollar fell. Something other than the Fed is setting policy.
...Three Fed officials voted to hike, September odds fell anyway, and the thirty-year went to a nineteen-year high. The tightening is happening. The Fed just is not the one doing it.
...Month end, and the stock indexes are still going absolutely nowhere.
The SPX bear got an update, and this one turned up with size attached.
I passed on a fresh RUT bull setup. Here is the trade-off, and why I am fine with it.
Crude finally found a floor. Crapto found nothing whatsoever.
SK Hynix printed a 76% operating margin, its fifth straight record, and the market marked it down. The figure that caused it was a 30% price increase.
...SK Hynix printed a 76% operating margin and a 557% profit gain, then fell 11%, because DRAM prices rose 30% instead of 60%.
The Dow gained 537.24 points on paint, cola and aeroplanes whilst the semiconductor index fell 4.5%. Pricing power moved industries.
Nineteen cycles in, the tape priced peace on total silence for three sessions, then repriced war within minutes of Centcom posting.
Bitcoin lost $63,800 on Tuesday and bought it back on Wednesday at $64,313.10, whilst weekly ETF inflows shrank to $33M.
Warsh speaks at 14:30 with no dot plot, Microsoft and Meta report at the bell, and gold has stopped answering the phone.
Why the SPX bear TnT fired as anticipated on the gap higher, and where the bollingers are compressing.
How Uncle Russ flipped its own bear TnT into what looks like a bear flag.
Where crude sits at the $80-$81 over/under, and which side flips it.
Why the BTC lower high came good and how $61k-$60k is the next zone in view.
Seoul halted trading, Nvidia signed half a trillion and lost the crown, and a Chinese debutant took $487 billion. The chip trade may have stopped being about demand.
...A Chinese memory maker with 7.67% of the DRAM market was awarded $487 billion in a single session. Seoul halted trading three days after signing $700 billion of AI letters of intent.
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