The inside bar called 5 markets overnight. RUT took both sides, the Dow took the high, ES and NQ took the lows first, crude broke and trended, and BTC broke low and faked it. Inside: why break and trend and break and fake are not the same trade, and the SPX bands squeezing again with the 3 day average around 50 points.
...For four sessions the 2-year did not move and I said it had stopped working as a price. On Friday it moved 5bp and held. Here is what that might mean, and where I might be wrong.
...The 2-year sat at 4.19% for four straight sessions through a buyback shock and hawkish minutes. Then it printed 4.24% twice. Bitcoin took 80,000 and nobody looked at the boring number.
...RUT did the job SPX normally does. SPX did not. And the final 10 minutes of the session settled both of them at once.
Two trades to start the week off with.
...An inside day to finish Friday sets us up for a pop out of the narrow range, and on stock indexes the side that breaks first is often the false one. The move in was bearish, so that is bear continuation 65 to 70% of the time. Inside: why crude does not play the same trick, and the VIX line I am still watching for.
...Two economic wars opened in one weekend, gold took a record and the long bond printed 2007. The dollar index closed at 98.8 for the fourth session running. Here is what that silence might mean.
...Two economic wars opened over one weekend, gold took a record, the long bond printed 2007, and the dollar index closed at 98.8 for the fourth session running. Something has stopped transmitting.
...Crude, ETH/BTC twice, RUT and SPX. Four instruments, one day, and by the close every single credit spread had been transformed into a fly.
...The VIX needs to clear 16, the swing high on the daily, before I call another bear push started in earnest, and it is sat at 15.74. Meanwhile the Asian range break, retest and run delivered again in the premarket and SPX stays bearish to the breakout target while price holds below 7700. Inside: the crude narrow bar that has become a habit, and a debrief on 4 instruments landing later today.
...The Treasury intervened, the long bond round-tripped, equities lost 700 points and bitcoin added 20%. The 2-year printed 4.19% four sessions running. We try to work out what that silence means.
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