The votes are in and all eyes are on unemployment claims today and NFP tomorrow. The S&P, NazQuack and both uncles are pushing off their lows, crude jumped straight out the window to the range lows, and Bitcoin is back at range highs. Here’s where I see the next pause point on the S&P, and the Double Dip setups I’m working right now.
...The first cash session after the midterms saw December WTI fall 8.29% on a day the wires read as less war. Spot gold rose 3.34% the same day, while the VIX fell 20.26% and the dollar index 0.39%.
...The first cash session after the midterms split the market. The Dow rose 3.03%, the chip fund SOXX fell 3.14%, December WTI lost 8.29% and spot gold gained 3.34%. December Nasdaq 100 futures are 0.85% lower this morning.
...The midterms are decided and the market did what it always does, sold the uncertainty and bought the certainty. The S&P is back inside its range, my VIX trade is deflating, crude still looks heavy for $89, Bitcoin turns off the range lows, and the Double Dip flags a fresh shallow dip on XBI, the biotech.
...Democrats won both chambers overnight. December Nasdaq 100 futures fell 2.44% and recovered it. Spot gold rose 2.45%, mostly after 05:00 UTC, whilst the dollar index fell 0.47%.
...Democrats won both chambers in the midterms, flipping 7 Senate and 16 House seats by 06:30 UTC. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 2.44% during the count, then rose every hour to finish the morning 0.98% higher. Spot gold rose and stayed up.
...Americans vote tonight and the cash market shuts first. SPX and the NazQuack are at support, ready to break or turn, and for a change I’m thinking knee jerk then bullish. Plus crude through $100 and Bitcoin back at range lows.
...December WTI fell 7.36% on Monday. The 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields fell 3bp; the 2-year rose 3bp to 4.59%, ending a three-session decline. The textbook expected the opposite order.
...December WTI fell 7.36% on reports of Qatar-led US-Iran talks, and the 2-year Treasury yield rose 3bp. The Nasdaq 100 lost 1.39%, the Dow rose, and spot gold rose 1.90%.
...Money is a byproduct of process. Trading is a business, not a hobby: it has profits and losses, and on average a proven process should yield a profit. Follow the process, accept the losses, turn your size down, know when to sit flat, and stay in your own lane. Break the rules and you’re gambling.
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