I’ve been banging the big bear drum for far too many weeks with nothing to show for it, and the lazy bears are creeping in on the Dow and Russ again. Last time that happened we got a Crash Upward, 12-20% straight up. Here’s why I’m accounting for one, where SPX triggers, and how crude paid me while going nowhere.
...September produced 29,000 jobs and revisions removed 60,000 from July and August. The two-year closed five basis points higher. We try to work out what the front end thinks it knows.
...September delivered 29,000 jobs, unemployment of 4.2%, and revisions that removed 60,000 from July and August. The two-year Treasury responded by closing five basis points higher.
...My bear’gasm lasted the morning, again, and we are being spun around once more. SPX is back inside the range, NFP could be fireworks or sput sput fizz, crude oil has locked in a first profit, and BTC looks like it wants to join the party.
...The 2-year closed 10 basis points lower and the 30-year conceded 3. The index rose. Underneath it, 180 NYSE issues marked themselves down to a year’s low.
...The S&P 500 rose 0.1949% whilst 180 NYSE issues hit fresh 52-week lows, the most of the 70 sessions since 24 June. The relief landed 10 basis points at the front of the curve and 3 at the back.
...Tag n Turn swings are back bearish, GEX has flipped negative with a huge node at 7650, crude builds a V at the range lows, and Bitcoin sits sulking between 82k and 86k.
...Seventeen releases split the Treasury curve cleanly in two, and then 43.82% of the quarter’s final session traded in sixty minutes and overwrote the lot. One of those is information. One is housekeeping.
...Seventeen releases, one timestamp, two opposite answers. The curve split down the middle, equities agreed with the inflation print, and then 43.82% of the quarter’s final session traded in sixty minutes and took every index to its low.
...57% of stocks are below the 200, Uncle Russ is off 8.1% and the S&P is still sat near all time highs. The SPX V-pattern has become a range, Bitcoin meanders, and the Premium Poppers keep paying.
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