SPX is flipping off the 7780 zone again, Uncle Russ keeps up the lazy decline, and my fast bear move is back on the table. Here’s why I’d welcome it with October around the corner.

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7780 Said No Again. Fingers Crossed for the Big Bear Drop

The Dow gained 479 points on Friday and 10 NYSE stocks made a 52-week high. The front end fell 6 basis points and the 20-year closed at September’s highest anyway.

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Who Was That 479-Point Rally Actually For?

The Dow added 479 points on Friday and 10 NYSE stocks made a 52-week high. Another 93 made a new low. The 20-year closed at September’s highest and the weekend removed the rest.

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479 Points Said Rally. 10 Stocks Turned Up.

Markets tanked, Iran talked peace, markets pumped, and my head came clean off. VIX played peekaboo with 16, Gold barely clung on, and Bitcoin, of all things, turned out to be the voice of sanity. Here’s how my SPX and RUT bear swings are locked, and what BTC needs for the next add-in.

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Bitcoin Is Now the Sane One. Book Me Into Arkham.

A wire report of US-Iran talks on reopening Hormuz took 3.59% out of crude inside an hour and turned the equity session around. The bond market, settling later with the same information, closed at the month’s highest yield. We try to work out which one was right.

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Why Did Only One Market Believe the Peace Headline?

A report of US-Iran talks on reopening Hormuz took 3.59% out of November crude inside an hour. The Treasury curve, marked later the same afternoon, closed at 5.53%, the highest of the month. One of them is wrong.

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Crude Believed the Peace Report in 1 Hour. The 20-Year Never Did.

We banged the bear drum for THE week, and right on cue the market turned on a dime. SPX’s bull setup looks set to void on a 40 point gap, RUT has flip flopped back to the bear, Bitcoin is almost behaving, and everything on the bear side of the Premium Poppers came home to papa.

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Turned on a Dime, Just Before I Questioned My Bear Sanity. Again.

A survey of purchasing managers moved every Treasury tenor past two years and took the average stock apart, whilst the index recorded a polite decline. Two instruments, one session, opposite accounts.

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What Was a 0.75% Decline Actually Hiding?

The S&P lost three quarters of one percent and the number told you almost nothing. Underneath it, four NYSE stocks fell for every one that rose, the weakest breadth in thirty-two sessions.

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2,181 Fell, 547 Rose, and the Index Called It 0.75%

The rally was born on the back of 3 or 4 stocks, and they’ve stopped pumping. SPX and RUT are back in bearish alignment, BTC is stalling, and gold is finally interesting, with a move above 4440 set to trip the setup.

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4 Stocks Are Holding Up the S&P. Is the Rally Over?