The bear séance is over. Midterm October has historically been the best month of the year for the Dow and S&P 500, Uncle Dow is already leading the charge, and breadth sits at the lower extremes that marked this year’s turns. Plus the SPX, Crude Oil and Bitcoin reads.
...On Monday the NYSE’s advance-decline line and its up-down volume line finished on opposite sides of parity. The textbook says volume confirms breadth. Here is what it means when it refuses.
...Monday’s index print said nothing happened. Underneath it 1,207 more stocks fell than rose, the Dow and the Nasdaq-100 finished 1.086014 percentage points apart, and the money that was moving went into the biggest names only.
...Consumer sentiment fell 1.8 points to 46.3 and the 2-year closed 5 basis points higher the same afternoon. The shape of the curve’s move tells us which end of the market repriced.
...Friday was the broadest tape since 2 October. It was also the session three phone companies each lost over 10% of themselves, and T-Mobile did 69.5% of its damage in the opening gap, before a single share changed hands.
...All eyes are on the S&P and Naz walking the tightrope. No one is watching sleepy Uncles Dow and Russell, and they haven’t finished falling. Above 7850 or below 7800 settles it.
...The September minutes recorded a majority leaning to one more hike by year end. The 2-year fell to 4.77% anyway and the 20-year rose to 5.71%, which is the wrong way round.
...The minutes recorded a majority leaning to one more hike by year end. The front end fell to 4.77%, the 20-year rose to 5.71%, and 2,155 NYSE stocks went down whilst the index lost a fifth of a percent.
...The SPX bull breakout reached its target and the Tag n Turn tool is flat again. A bear setup has already flagged, and it’s tipped to skip. Meanwhile 2 indexes print new highs and 2 don’t. Same story, same handful of AI stocks.
...Three US indices closed at records on the windows held on Tuesday whilst more Nasdaq stocks hit one-year lows than one-year highs. Three measures of the same session gave three answers, and the gap between them is measurable.
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