The index futures rolled overnight, so anyone looking at a continuous contract this morning saw a huge gap up that never happened. The ETF extended hours tell the real story, which is a market selling off. Inside: SPX filling the gap on the rally and likely opening outside the range, RUT dropping and pausing with the next leg starting overnight, Bitcoin eyeing a range low break, and a VIX holding above 16 for a third day.
...The ten-year reached 5.041% this morning, the highest since 2007, whilst the policy rate sits at 3.50%. We try to work out which of the two is actually steering the ship.
...The ten-year hit 5.041% this morning, its highest since 2007, whilst the policy rate sits at 3.50%. The Fed decides Wednesday. The bond market decided last week.
...New week, markets gapping down 50ish in the premarket and holding the lows, and the Nasdaq out in front of the charge after AI got a clobbering over the weekend from the AI people themselves. Inside: the first time price has not reached the upper channel boundary before turning lower, a VIX up 12.49%, free space below RUT all the way to 2,800, and Bitcoin’s bear and bull zones now marked up.
...Crude cleared $100 and the ten-year neared 5%, and neither moved the growth complex like a weekend essay did. We work out what that 1.47 point gap between the two stock indices is actually pricing.
...Dow futures moved 0.22% and Nasdaq futures moved 1.69% on the same morning. That 1.47 point gap opened on Sunday night and never filled, and for once it has nothing to do with Wednesday’s Fed.
...Thursday’s news moved price lower exactly as expected, and Friday brings another one. Inside: a V pattern entry sitting at the SPX range lows for the umpteenth time, futures up around 40 points ahead of the 8:30 release, a VIX that isn’t falling nearly as fast as the S&P is rising, crude sat exactly on 100, and a Popper day that was effectively finished before the US had opened.
...A wholesale print beat by a tenth and September hike pricing jumped ten points. The inflation it measured arrived by sea, and the tool being readied for it does not go there.
...August wholesale prices ran hot, September hike pricing jumped ten points to roughly 71%, and the S&P 500 booked a fourth straight loss. The input arrived by sea.
...Uncle Russ has broken out of the smaller range and 2,900 to 2,920 is now the support that decides the next move. Inside: SPX still running upper range to lower with bear pulse bars, Bitcoin going nowhere with no conviction, a Popper day of a 1DTE, a premarket continuation and one 3rd BO loss, and the biggest Wall of Wins in a fortnight.
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