Blog - Page 2 of 7 - AntiVestor.com

Is It Time You Hung Up Your Trading Hat?

Ahoy there, Its Phil…

What if I were to tell you that this trading lark is not for you?

Image that!

Could it be that there is a small list of things you suck at and that this trading thing is one of them AND that you had better stop doing it before you send you and your family to the poor house?

Harsher words have never been said and Ive sadly had to say them to a few people as what I considered the best thing for them to do.

Ive met and spoken with several people over the years who have been trying to “crack it” for 5-yrs 10-yrs and some have been on a lifelong journey for 20+ years with mixed results.

Now that is one expensive hobby if you havent made it after that many years.

Now consider why they failed… Continue reading . . .

My EXACT formula to dominate your trading

What if I told you that the world class success you see some others experiencing in stock selection really comes down to AVOIDING a sinister myth that’s been floating about for years?

Would you be interested in knowing what it is?

It’s the misconception that you must always flick through chart after chart all day every day.

In the stock selection inner circles, you can “zoom into todays hot opportunity in just 2-clicks of the mouse.” I call this click ‘n pick stock selection

Buying into click ‘n pick can accelerate you pretty quickly.

So, if you’re feeling gutted or bitter concerning your stock selection progress, be sure to see if the lack of click ‘n pick stock selection has been working against you.

It really can be a destructive force as you move toward realising when it’s a today trade or a come back tomorrow trade.

Where did it come from? Continue reading . . .

The Big Money Is Made In The Waiting

Ahoy there, Its Phil…

The indexes are a wee bit dull to start the week off with. Which is also emphasised by the mixed directions and lack lustre moves by my small universe of liquid stocks

That said, everything seems to be moving (mostly) in the right direction.

Giving the last minute market excitement after a dull week last week I might have thought there would be a little flurry of excitement to start the week off… but no, not to be!

Ah well, this trading game is and never was fast paced and despite what all the flyers say. This is and always was a waiting game.

Im reminded of a line from Reminiscences of a stock operator; Continue reading . . .

How High Is Too High?

Ahoy there, Its Phil…

Before we get going […You can see todays stock selection video here…]

Can these markets only ever go up?

Is it too late to buy? It’s never to later to buy, but will you be lest holding the bag when the music stops?

It is hard to deny that when the markets are going up you should be bullish.

At least for a short while.

But, as W.D. Gann said in my rather bastardised quote;

Always be prepared to change your mind

DIA looks like it is going to push higher once again and may well hit the heady heights of $215-$218 levels based on short term targeting (see image)

Pattern #4 flagged up for me this morning when I ran my scans which suggests that prices may well pop higher… but then 8yrs of “going higher” this isn’t really anything magical.

What is the trick of it is timing these moves. 😉

Happy Trading
Phil
Creator of AntiVestor System

AntiVestor Trend Alerts

p.s – When you are ready there are two ways that I can help you achieve trading mastery;

1 – Done For You, Daily Research & Stock Selections For Trending Stocks.
Helping you do your daily research of stock selection by sending you my Daily AV Trend Alerts

2 – Daily Alerts PLUS on demand training course – coming soon

3 – 1-2-1 Mentorship.
Helping you to learn my step-by-step AntiVestor system with Private 1-2-1 Mentorship

p.p.s. – Still have questions? contact me

 

 

I was wrong . . .

Ahoy there, Its Phil…

I remember back when I first tried to grow my trading account. I made some serious mistakes.

And if you’re attempting to dominate your trading, you might be making similar mistakes, like…

  • –> trying to uncover some hidden talent the top few have
  • –> controlling slippage
  • –> not choosing highly liquid markets

But you know what?

There’s actually a “right” way to get the job done…one that can also help you get free time back and accept losses like a zen master at the same time.

Here’s an effective technique you should try: Look back over the last 12-months (or 200 bars) and only trade in the direction of the dominant direction. This is what we do when selecting our picks for the AntiVestor Daily Alerts.

You might be surprised at how your accuracy AND your P/L ratio improves

Maybe this is going to be very different from what you do now. I don’t know.

But down the road, I know you’ll thank me.

You know, applying just this one tip – one of dozens found within AntiVestor System, really opened up the stock selection world for a lot of my customers.

I received this feedback just the other day:

“..my account is showing a nice 15% profit to date. Thank you” – Mike, AntiVestor Subscriber

Now, this is just one of the many nuggets, I’ve discovered. Stay tuned for more, or feel free to check out AntiVestor System.

 

Let me know how it goes for you

Until then, happy trading

Phil

Creator of the AntiVestor system

AntiVestor Trend Alerts

Investor OR Speculator; Which one are you…?

I was reading an article about Investing versus Speculating and I could not help but thing to myself

“Self, are these not one and the same?”

The act of investing is defined as the purchase of goods (stock in our situation) that are not consumed today but will be sold at a higher price at some point in the future

The idea is that the asset will provide an income or will be sold at a higher price at some point in the future

Speculation on the other hand is defined as taking advantage of fluctuations in market movements and is typically high risk

Surely the active of investing is speculation in itself and anyone who doesnt know how to remove risk in their trading shouldnt be trading

I simply cant see a difference

You invest in a plot of land hoping to see the value increase – a fluctuation in market prices, no? aka speculation

I also do not believe there is such a thing as high risk these days. Yes there are certainly high risk products or investment ideas (there’s that word again)

But…

Combining different products to hedge or cap risk is widely available with the plethora of products available makes high risk irrelevant – there is only stupidity or ignorance when it comes to risk

Perhaps it is time to define a new generation of activity which Ive been calling “Active Investing” and start taking the stigma away from speculation as being high risk

===

That is all

Happy Trading
Phil

 


Still need a little more help?

Gamblers Fallacy, do you have it?

I was listening to a very interesting podcast done by Freakonomics radio

The episode was about gamblers fallacy, which if you haven’t heard of it before is basically the miss held belief that if you toss a coin as heads 5 times in a row then the 6th time surely has to be a tails.

The reality is that each coin toss has an equal opportunity of being either heads or tails aka 50/50

Equally true is that you can toss 10 heads in a row and over short term data points (anything under 1000) then it is likely to be a short term trend or anomaly.

The show was also talking about the bias you give based on the previous experience as to what the next outcome will be.

Overall it was extremely interesting.

As a trader you must have experienced this early on in your career or maybe you still experience it now…

Personally, Ive gone to great lengths to ensure that I follow my strategy and not fall into this fallacy trap and the many faces which it wears.

After 22-yrs you can be sure that there is plenty of data behind my trading to ensure that what I do isn’t a “blip”

One of the realisations you need to have is to understand that trading is not a 50/50 outcome. When you get that it is actually a 33.3% chance of price going up down OR sideways you will start to come closer to the trading realities and of course seeing positive returns on your trading simply because you are getting a handle on realistic expectations.

…and remember each trade has an equal chance of going up down or sideways, wouldnt you be better off using a strategy that has a positive expectancy outcome based around these realities?

Just a thought for you to consider.

 


Still need a little more help?

The best thing since… 1912?

Which sounds better?

The best thing since the invention of sliced bread

Or

The best thing since since 1912

I caught myself saying since “sliced bread was invented” a few times recently and I wondered how much of a compliment that saying actual was

Well it turns out that sliced bread was officially invented or was at least sold as sliced bread was around 1912 depending on your sources [thanks wikipedia]

But then how impressive is sliced bread even shortly after the turn of the 20th century?

There may be more impressive things – well.. [exasperated sigh] – and Im going to go out on a limb here an use the word – Definitely

There was Definitely more impressive things invented around 1912 and Most Definitely has been since then

With that said and done…

I can with confidence say that my stock alert service is without a doubt, and is quite possibly because it is one of the many things that was invented after sliced bread that could also be better than sliced bread

Simply because using it has allowed me to buy all the sliced bread I can handle for the last decade and a half and coming in at a cost of little more than two loaves a day its a bargain

I know which side of the bread my butter is on – do you..?

 

See you on the inside…

Happy Trading
Phil Newton

 


Still need a little more help?

Forex Is dead – That was so last decade

I had an interesting question in the mail bag earlier in the week and I thought that it would make for interesting reading for you too

As you read it consider that I spent 12-yrs primarily day trading Forex so I do speak with a smidgen of authority on the subject of Forex

So, from the mail bag came this…

Q – I’m really enjoying the signals and trading stocks and can see a lot more longevity and consistency in your approach to the markets- I wondered what your thoughts are on forex as retail traders as opposed to trading stocks in this way?

My reply

A – I think we should consider ourselves traders or investors and not bracket or blinker ourselves into being forex or futures or stock traders

I will trade forex if I think it offers a good trade as well as oil, indexes commodities and obviously stocks

I have always flippantly said that if my time and resources are better spent flipping beanie bears on ebay like it was the 90’s again – then that is what I would be doing

I am a capitalist and an entrepreneur first – in that Im looking for the best opportunity for my time and resources

That is not in forex for you, me or anyone else at the moment and hasnt been for several years – back in 02 ahead of the forex explosion was the time to be in to forex and Im more focused on what will happen in the next decade rather than looking back on what was good last decade

If I did that then I would have gotten slaughtered in 02 trying to trade the tech stock bubble or what was left of it

The currency / tech bubble is over – so whats next?

What is next is for the economic house of cards to tumble especially emphasised in the US markets with a now 7yr bull market with barely a down tick to satisfy the bears and recession watchers – we have skipped 2 economic cycles so far and when this bear pulls into port there will be a case of the clap like you have never seen before

So bear market and recession on the horizon = increased volatility
options are priced using volatility and I anticipate becoming a net seller of options when the tide turns

That is all for now

 

Happy Trading
Phil Newton

 


Still need a little more help?

Financial Farming – Grow yourself Fat Profit

Are you a hunter or a farmer..?

What most people dont know about me is that I grew up on a farm actually growing stuff

First early potatoes – Spring or summer leeks – I used to love stripping rhubarb skins as they were quite tart – tomatoes lefts you literally green fingered after pruning – eventually my folks moved into garden variety plants

I suppose somewhere along the way I learnt something about farming and planning for the future compared to hunting and hoping for the now

As humans we have supposedly evolved from hunter gathers into farming which is meant to be a far superior way of living

The logic these days can roll over into many other areas and in this case the finance markets

I frequently ask people which would you rather be

  • A farmer
  • A hunter

Being a hunter sounds good but the reality is that if you dont find anything you go hungry

But

If you are a farmer and you grow a field of produce – something is likely to grow that you can eat

AND – this is the best bit

If you dont feel like it or something prevents you from getting out and maintaining the farm – you can still wonder down and pull a few bits for dinner

Whereas if you dont go hunting you dont eat

With trading and investing I think you would have to agree that you would rather be the financial farmer and put all you stock seeds in the financial field of a trading account

Watch the green shoots of profits rise up through the the fertile trend set up and as soon as you see a ripe profit (target) you pluck that luscious profit right out of your field and bank it

This way you are only managing profits because lets face it pulling rotten vegetables out the ground or pulling the seeds back out the ground shortly after you planted them simply doesnt make any sense

You need to be more like a farmer and plant your profit seeds and them them grow – only pulling them out the ground when they are ripe with profits

Which is exactly what I do and what I teach all my students to do – just last week those of you on my newsletter alerts would have pulled 2 more ripe ‘uns – the rest of the profit field has also started to grow too and this week is looking like the crops will come good

Do you want my next stock planting alert? It goes out tomorrow – just prior to the markets opening

See you on the inside…

Happy Trading
Phil Newton

 


Still need a little more help?