New week, markets gapping down 50ish in the premarket and holding the lows, and the Nasdaq out in front of the charge after AI got a clobbering over the weekend from the AI people themselves. Inside: the first time price has not reached the upper channel boundary before turning lower, a VIX up 12.49%, free space below RUT all the way to 2,800, and Bitcoin’s bear and bull zones now marked up.
...Crude cleared $100 and the ten-year neared 5%, and neither moved the growth complex like a weekend essay did. We work out what that 1.47 point gap between the two stock indices is actually pricing.
...Dow futures moved 0.22% and Nasdaq futures moved 1.69% on the same morning. That 1.47 point gap opened on Sunday night and never filled, and for once it has nothing to do with Wednesday’s Fed.
...Thursday’s news moved price lower exactly as expected, and Friday brings another one. Inside: a V pattern entry sitting at the SPX range lows for the umpteenth time, futures up around 40 points ahead of the 8:30 release, a VIX that isn’t falling nearly as fast as the S&P is rising, crude sat exactly on 100, and a Popper day that was effectively finished before the US had opened.
...A wholesale print beat by a tenth and September hike pricing jumped ten points. The inflation it measured arrived by sea, and the tool being readied for it does not go there.
...August wholesale prices ran hot, September hike pricing jumped ten points to roughly 71%, and the S&P 500 booked a fourth straight loss. The input arrived by sea.
...Uncle Russ has broken out of the smaller range and 2,900 to 2,920 is now the support that decides the next move. Inside: SPX still running upper range to lower with bear pulse bars, Bitcoin going nowhere with no conviction, a Popper day of a 1DTE, a premarket continuation and one 3rd BO loss, and the biggest Wall of Wins in a fortnight.
...Six billion dollars of official demand landed on the long end and yields rose through it. The thirty-year declined to confirm. We work out which instrument was actually doing the pricing.
...The Treasury tripled its long-end buyback to six billion dollars. The ten-year answered with 4.857%, its highest since November 2023. The intervention was the news. The barrel was the reason.
...The bear moves continued off the inside bar break as called, though the whole thing is happening in a range so tight the Dow is leading the charge lower with 0.11%. Inside: why SPX and RUT still have nothing new to report, a premarket futures trigger that transformed fast, what 415 locked looks like against the 915 and 1,420 that got away, and a full Wall of Wins.
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