ES sits roughly 50 points off NATHs in the premarket. Uncle Dow on the doorstep of new all-time highs. The April rally lows pop-and-confirm setup is ticks from triggering.
SPX swing still pushing bullish. Another BB upper-band tag. No pulse bars in sight – the lack of conviction is the tell.
RUT remains the charting darling. Bullish TnT swing active, %R in the bullish extreme, MACD-v at the bullish extreme suggesting a wee bit more to the move.
Three Nvidia beats. Three Nvidia sells. The AI bellwether has quietly stopped behaving like a bellwether.
BTC continues to dither. The bull setup is looking more like a bear flag – the setup is still active but the question is whether to kill it early.
Nvidia beat by $3.6B, added an $80B buyback, raised the dividend. Stock fell 1.26%. Three beats, three sells. Perfection has been repriced as disappointment.
FOMC minutes confirmed hawkish bias if inflation persists. December odds at 50%. 10Y at 4.57%. Markets decided Warsh would fix it. The minutes disagreed.
Walmart beat. Home Depot and Target in-line. Consumer staples carried the index whilst tech digested. Russell 2000 outperformed at +0.93%, the quiet rotation tell.
Bitcoin held $80K through the hawkish repricing. Cumulative ETF inflows hit $59.7B since launch. Halving math now nine times new issuance via institutional bid.
Hormuz week 13. Brent at $104.88. IEA flagged summer red zone. Final May Michigan Sentiment lands today, the last sentiment read before Memorial Day silence.
Wall Street ripped 1.08% on a peace treaty that does not exist. Hormuz still closed. Week thirteen.
Walmart reports premarket. The market wants rising sales AND absorbed tariff costs. Pick one.
SPX bullish at swing but touched the lower BB without a bullish pulse bar. The lower-high read is on the table.
RUT bull swing continues. Bear TnT was set up but the trigger never fired. MACD-v at momentum extreme – a pause is likely.
BTC turned around after hitting bear swing target. Bear trend exited on %R, MACD-v turned bullish. Nice momentum increase. Push into the %R bullish extreme could see a return to recent highs.
Futures soften after Wednesday’s 1.08% S&P rip on US-Iran de-escalation hopes. Russell ripped 2.3%, yields dropped 10bps, and Hormuz, somewhat awkwardly, stayed shut.
Nvidia beat with $81.62B revenue and $1.87 EPS. Hyperscalers committed $725B in 2026 capex, up 77%. The AI thesis remains, structurally, immune to the news cycle.
Walmart prints before the open at $174.95B and $0.66 EPS consensus. The retailer warned last week tariffs would force price hikes. Today the math arrives in plain English.
BTC holds $77,841 while US spot ETFs shed $1B last week, largest outflow since February. The mechanical floor thinned. Resistance $82,850 still politely declining visitors.
Hormuz closed week 13, Brent $106, Warsh six days into the chair. The gap between Wednesday’s hope and Thursday’s invoice is today’s only real story.
Markets holding their breath since Monday – Iran strike on standby, Tuesday rally on standby, Nvidia decides tonight what gets to breathe again
FOMC minutes release today from Powell’s last meeting – six days after he stopped being Fed Chair, Warsh reads them anyway
Thirty-year touched 5.19% – the bond rout is steady, the equity bid did not blink
SPX bullish swing intact but the Bollinger Band width is compressing – not pinched yet, but close enough to start thinking about a consolidation opportunity
RUT looking far more interesting – bullish TnT setup, exiting the bearish MACD-v extreme, V-entry pullback above 2,765 providing add-in opportunities
Futures sit where Tuesday left them. The 30-year at 5.19%, a yield that used to trigger Hollywood recession montages and now triggers a shrug. The bond rout is steady.
Nvidia reports fiscal Q1 after the close. Consensus $79 billion revenue, 78% growth, 90% implied beat. Tonight Wall Street sacrifices its chicken to one chip vendor.
Powell’s final FOMC minutes drop at 14:00 ET. Powell left May 15. Warsh chaired five days. We are reading the diary of a man who has left the building.
Bitcoin held $77,000 overnight after its worst week since February. Saylor stands $1,300 above the iceberg. Diamond hands, very quietly and ceremoniously, opened.
Trump’s Iran strike sits postponed, optional, ready for any moment. Brent holds $110.73. Hormuz stays closed. Schrödinger’s war: simultaneously on, off, and irrelevant to the chart.
SPX system bullish, no TnT yet. The trade is a bull-swing failure if it triggers.
RUT bear swing active. Price working from 2,854.67 toward new target 2,767.8.
BTC moved through Target 1 at $76,459.65. Heading toward Target 2 at $72,500. %R still in trend.
Two losing sessions across SPX and NazQuack, third potentially overnight. Multi-day sell-off finally arrived.
Futures slip a second day. S&P -0.23%, Nasdaq -0.46% premarket. Memory chips, having priced AI capacity as infinite, briefly remembered that fabs are physical objects.
Home Depot prints 9am ET. Consensus $3.41 EPS on $41.6B revenue. First proper US consumer read of the week, against shares already down 21% past year.
Trump postponed Tuesday’s Iran strike. Brent fell 1.84% to $110.26. Hormuz, somewhat awkwardly, remains shut. Aramco CEO sees 2027 normalisation if blocked past mid-June.
Bitcoin trades sub-$77K, having returned every gain of May. Crypto ETFs bled $1.07B last week. Strategy bought $2B more. Goldman exited XRP and Solana entirely.
Wednesday brings Powell’s final FOMC minutes plus Nvidia after close. The market gets to find out whether two losing days were a glitch or a leading indicator.
SPX -1.24% Friday / NazQuack -1.54% / VIX +6.78% to 18.43 / 10Y +13.6bps to 4.595% / 30Y cleared 5.12%
TnT system remains bullish, just missed a bear setup. A new bull tag failure flips the system to bearish.
RUT pushed back into the prior range on the daily. The bear thesis needs to be considered.
BTC bear trend below minus 80 on percent R. MACD-v also bearish. A cat’s whisker from Target 1.
Equities: S&P closed Friday -1.24% at 7,408.50 after PPI hit 6%. Monday futures down another 0.68%. VIX jumped 6.78%. The tape caught up.
SPX cue: Premarket bid sits near 7,380. Hold and Nvidia Wednesday becomes the bounce trigger. Fail it and the 50-day comes into view fast.
Crypto: Bitcoin under $77K, testing the $75K-$78K battleground. ETH at $2,272, ten days of ETF inflows and yet no price confirmation through resistance.
Macro: Warsh inherits a 6% PPI, a 30-year above 5.12%, and a Hormuz closure on day one. FOMC minutes Wednesday read the Powell-era dissent map for him.
Forward look: Nvidia after close Wednesday is now the week’s hero or the week’s accelerant. Walmart Tuesday sets the consumer tone. Brent at $111 will not stop reminding.