All four stock indexes now in sync on the charts. Premarket gap higher across the board, futures pushing for new all-time highs.
SPX and RUT both printed bear swing setups at Friday’s close. The gap higher in premarket could void both swings or set up a profitable retest.
7,500 is the GEX anchor. Massive call gamma node. Dealers may defend the level as price pushes back from any gap higher.
Brent down 9% on the month. Hormuz still closed. Third consecutive session of oil pricing the peace deal that has not been signed.
BTC finding support at the longer-term anchored VWAP. Possible inverted head and shoulders developing.
Futures up 0.6% on a peace deal that has not been signed. Brent down 4%. VIX firmer. Uranium terms and Hormuz tolls remain unresolved details.
Warsh begins his first full session as Fed Chair, inheriting 3.5% PCE and a 19-year high in 30Y yields. Markets price hold through 2026 anyway.
Bitcoin reads identical news to equities and falls 0.88% to $76,635. Six-day ETF outflow streak hits $1.55B. ETH ETFs bleeding ten straight days.
Defence stocks discover that peace is also a risk after four months of being the only trade that worked. Position unwinds become symmetric reversal risk.
AutoZone reports premarket. May confidence at 10:00 ET. Zscaler after the close. The data calendar will quietly disagree with the reopening optimism today, again.
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...Markets closed Monday for Memorial Day. Friday’s records stand for 72 hours: Dow 50,579, S&P 7,473, Nasdaq 26,344. Tuesday inherits the full weekend gap.
Trump declared Saturday an Iran “framework” deal, including Hormuz reopening and sanctions relief. Tehran has not formally signed. Sunday’s strait count: 21 versus 60 norm.
Nvidia’s May 20 print still anchors the AI tape. $81.6B revenue, $80B buyback, Q2 guide $91B assumed zero China revenue. Any export thaw is pure upside.
Bitcoin near $80K through the weekend. ETF inflows positive five weeks running. 30-year yield at 5.20% cycle high keeps duration-sensitive risk on a short leash.
Thursday at 08:30 ET: April PCE plus Q1 GDP second estimate, Warsh’s first data print. Q2 PCE consensus already at 4.5%, CPI projected at 6.0%.
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ES sits roughly 50 points off NATHs in the premarket. Uncle Dow on the doorstep of new all-time highs. The April rally lows pop-and-confirm setup is ticks from triggering.
SPX swing still pushing bullish. Another BB upper-band tag. No pulse bars in sight – the lack of conviction is the tell.
RUT remains the charting darling. Bullish TnT swing active, %R in the bullish extreme, MACD-v at the bullish extreme suggesting a wee bit more to the move.
Three Nvidia beats. Three Nvidia sells. The AI bellwether has quietly stopped behaving like a bellwether.
BTC continues to dither. The bull setup is looking more like a bear flag – the setup is still active but the question is whether to kill it early.
Nvidia beat by $3.6B, added an $80B buyback, raised the dividend. Stock fell 1.26%. Three beats, three sells. Perfection has been repriced as disappointment.
FOMC minutes confirmed hawkish bias if inflation persists. December odds at 50%. 10Y at 4.57%. Markets decided Warsh would fix it. The minutes disagreed.
Walmart beat. Home Depot and Target in-line. Consumer staples carried the index whilst tech digested. Russell 2000 outperformed at +0.93%, the quiet rotation tell.
Bitcoin held $80K through the hawkish repricing. Cumulative ETF inflows hit $59.7B since launch. Halving math now nine times new issuance via institutional bid.
Hormuz week 13. Brent at $104.88. IEA flagged summer red zone. Final May Michigan Sentiment lands today, the last sentiment read before Memorial Day silence.
Wall Street ripped 1.08% on a peace treaty that does not exist. Hormuz still closed. Week thirteen.
Walmart reports premarket. The market wants rising sales AND absorbed tariff costs. Pick one.
SPX bullish at swing but touched the lower BB without a bullish pulse bar. The lower-high read is on the table.
RUT bull swing continues. Bear TnT was set up but the trigger never fired. MACD-v at momentum extreme – a pause is likely.
BTC turned around after hitting bear swing target. Bear trend exited on %R, MACD-v turned bullish. Nice momentum increase. Push into the %R bullish extreme could see a return to recent highs.
Futures soften after Wednesday’s 1.08% S&P rip on US-Iran de-escalation hopes. Russell ripped 2.3%, yields dropped 10bps, and Hormuz, somewhat awkwardly, stayed shut.
Nvidia beat with $81.62B revenue and $1.87 EPS. Hyperscalers committed $725B in 2026 capex, up 77%. The AI thesis remains, structurally, immune to the news cycle.
Walmart prints before the open at $174.95B and $0.66 EPS consensus. The retailer warned last week tariffs would force price hikes. Today the math arrives in plain English.
BTC holds $77,841 while US spot ETFs shed $1B last week, largest outflow since February. The mechanical floor thinned. Resistance $82,850 still politely declining visitors.
Hormuz closed week 13, Brent $106, Warsh six days into the chair. The gap between Wednesday’s hope and Thursday’s invoice is today’s only real story.
Markets holding their breath since Monday – Iran strike on standby, Tuesday rally on standby, Nvidia decides tonight what gets to breathe again
FOMC minutes release today from Powell’s last meeting – six days after he stopped being Fed Chair, Warsh reads them anyway
Thirty-year touched 5.19% – the bond rout is steady, the equity bid did not blink
SPX bullish swing intact but the Bollinger Band width is compressing – not pinched yet, but close enough to start thinking about a consolidation opportunity
RUT looking far more interesting – bullish TnT setup, exiting the bearish MACD-v extreme, V-entry pullback above 2,765 providing add-in opportunities