Uncle Russ is making new ground in the pre market while sleepy Uncle Dow leads the bear charge on its own, and the VIX has popped 4.84% on almost no overnight movement. Inside: why the SPX compression area is now angled rather than flat, the ETH/BTC target lifted to 0.0305, and Friday’s poppers.
...Weak demand is supposed to make long money cheaper. On Friday it did the opposite, whilst households raised what they expect to pay. We try to work out which of those two facts is driving the other.
...July spending fell 0.6% and consumer sentiment dropped 8%. The Russell 2000 answered with an all-time closing high, and the bond market put the price of long money up.
...Since the 20 April crash higher, the number of stocks above their 20 period moving average has fallen from 83% to around 40%, and it is sat near 65% now. The index has kept climbing anyway. Inside: the sentiment chart, the SPX breakout setup, and why the ETF poppers beat the cash yesterday.
...July wholesale prices printed zero and the S&P 500 cleared 7,800 for the first time. Every company that published audited numbers into that record was sold. We work out why.
...The S&P 500 cleared 7,800 for the first time on a wholesale inflation print of zero. Inside that record, Cisco fell 8.4% after the best revenue quarter it has ever booked.
...SPX managed 25 points yesterday and the 3 day average is now under 40, which would have counted as a spicy day even in the 2008 crash. Meanwhile the VIX sold off hard as though we had trended 50 points straight up. Inside: why the swings are still on the sidelines, and the RUT breakout that needs a pullback first.
...Here is what happened. July CPI printed 0.1% on the month and 3.4% on the year. Core printed 0.2% and 2.5%. 4 readings, 4 exact matches with consensus. Core annual inflation is the coolest since March 2021. The S&P 500 responded by moving 20.30 points, closing 9.14 short of its record. VIX closed 14.54, the lowest of the run, on the biggest scheduled release of the week. Bitcoin’s Bollinger band width fell to 3.8%, its tightest in 2 years.
...July CPI matched consensus on all 4 readings. The S&P moved 20 points, VIX hit a cycle low, and bitcoin volatility hit a 2-year low. Then the dollar quietly took the whole move back.
...Compression continues across the indexes, but the Dow may be stepping forward to lead the bear charge with a clear 123 pattern. SPX ran the range highs again and ground lower all day, and a push below 7700 hands over the breakout attempt. Inside: the RUT coil, the ETH/BTC flip, and how the profit got locked without a butterfly.
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