Six billion dollars of official demand landed on the long end and yields rose through it. The thirty-year declined to confirm. We work out which instrument was actually doing the pricing.
...The Treasury tripled its long-end buyback to six billion dollars. The ten-year answered with 4.857%, its highest since November 2023. The intervention was the news. The barrel was the reason.
...The bear moves continued off the inside bar break as called, though the whole thing is happening in a range so tight the Dow is leading the charge lower with 0.11%. Inside: why SPX and RUT still have nothing new to report, a premarket futures trigger that transformed fast, what 415 locked looks like against the 915 and 1,420 that got away, and a full Wall of Wins.
...Crude has risen six sessions running and Brent sits a dollar from triple figures. Equity volatility answered at 15.70, slightly lower. Working out which instrument is wrong is this week’s job.
...The US destroyed five Iranian tankers, Brent sits under a dollar from 100, and the price of insuring the S&P went down. Three inflation events land inside eight days.
...Back from the long weekend to inside bars almost everywhere and a VIX that jumped nearly 9% for about 30 points of ES. Inside: what more than a nibble past the lows means for which way these bars actually break, where Friday’s peak sits on the SPX swings, and an honest word about confirmation bias.
...August payrolls trebled consensus and September hike odds jumped nearly nine points. The two-year Treasury moved three basis points. We work out whether that is a shrug or simply the correct sum.
...Payrolls came in at three times consensus, September hike odds jumped nearly nine points, and the two-year Treasury moved three basis points. The loudest week in months produced the smallest number.
...Annoying markets, a strong bearish stance and a tape determined to test it, with NFP due in 90 minutes and a forecast range wide enough to spin prices around and around. Inside: why the jobs reaction is inverted this cycle, the only chart currently behaving itself, and a payroll revision habit worth knowing about before the print.
...September’s hike odds fell 12.8 points on one governor’s interview and the two-year moved five basis points. We work through the arithmetic of why, and why the smaller number may be the honest one.
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