Bull shakeout, bear shakeout, false breaks morning, noon and close. The last time price behaved like this was the 2 months before 2008. Here’s how the data keeps me sane, plus the swing reads on SPX, RUT and crude.
...A 1.3% producer-price print landed and every tenor from 5 years out richened by the identical 9 basis points. The two shortest bills cheapened instead. Three duration figures arrived, and they narrow Wednesday’s open question.
...Producer prices rose 1.3% against a 0.6% consensus. The same session, every tenor from 5 years out closed lower by exactly 9 basis points. The bills cheapened. We can show you the arithmetic and we cannot tell you why.
...The AI trade got a swift kick, Uncle Russ slipped into correction territory, and Don Bear collected on the S&P and NazQuack. My opinion said bull, the data said bear, and the data got paid. Plus crude heading for its range high target, Bitcoin pushing off the channel low, and the Premium Poppers popping on SPX and RUT.
...The Nasdaq-100 had its largest fall in 30 sessions and 59% of it arrived after the inflation print was an hour old. The credit market that should have confirmed a debt story moved a third of 1 per cent.
...The Nasdaq-100 had its largest fall in 30 sessions and 59% of it arrived after the inflation print was already an hour old. High yield credit, asked to confirm a debt story, moved a third of 1 per cent.
...The bear is packed away and the bull cycle is in effect, so naturally the Dow ran bull premarket, then gave a fuck you bear move right at the open, retreating 100%. Here’s where that leaves SPX, Crude Oil and Bitcoin, plus the Premium Poppers the team banked.
...Two sessions running, NYSE issue breadth and NYSE volume breadth pointed opposite ways. Then they swapped sides overnight. One of those two instruments is measuring something the other cannot see.
...More NYSE stocks rose than fell on Tuesday and more NYSE volume went into the ones that fell. Monday did exactly the opposite. One of those two days is lying.
...The bear séance is over. Midterm October has historically been the best month of the year for the Dow and S&P 500, Uncle Dow is already leading the charge, and breadth sits at the lower extremes that marked this year’s turns. Plus the SPX, Crude Oil and Bitcoin reads.
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