The ten-year hit 5.041% this morning, its highest since 2007, whilst the policy rate sits at 3.50%. The Fed decides Wednesday. The bond market decided last week.

Dow futures moved 0.22% and Nasdaq futures moved 1.69% on the same morning. That 1.47 point gap opened on Sunday night and never filled, and for once it has nothing to do with Wednesday’s Fed.

August wholesale prices ran hot, September hike pricing jumped ten points to roughly 71%, and the S&P 500 booked a fourth straight loss. The input arrived by sea.

The Treasury tripled its long-end buyback to six billion dollars. The ten-year answered with 4.857%, its highest since November 2023. The intervention was the news. The barrel was the reason.

The US destroyed five Iranian tankers, Brent sits under a dollar from 100, and the price of insuring the S&P went down. Three inflation events land inside eight days.

Payrolls came in at three times consensus, September hike odds jumped nearly nine points, and the two-year Treasury moved three basis points. The loudest week in months produced the smallest number.