May CPI lands at 8:30, seen at 4.2%, the hottest since April 2023. Warsh was hired to cut. The data appears to have other plans, in writing.
Two-year yields at 4.15%, hike odds past 70%, jobs that doubled consensus at 172,000. The economy refused to cool on schedule. Awkward for everyone involved.
Chips lost a trillion Friday, found buyers Monday, lost them Tuesday. The S&P sits coiled near flat, waiting for one number to ruin or rescue the week.
Bitcoin under $61K, ETFs down $5.4 billion in four weeks, and Strategy, the never-sell brand, sold. The believers are quietly checking the exits, one browser tab at a time.
Brent near $93 after round-tripping $98 on a ceasefire that exists mainly in press releases. Hormuz stays shut. Energy keeps writing the whole inflation story underneath.

Wall Street rebounded Monday on a chip rally led by Friday’s biggest losers. Same names, opposite direction, 48 hours apart, no explanation offered or required.
Brent ripped above $98 then sank to $94 in one session as strikes met fresh ceasefire talk. The barrel priced a war and a truce before lunch.
Bitcoin sits under $65,000, down 12%, with spot ETFs bleeding 13 straight days. Saylor’s Strategy sold coins, and the never-sell thesis became a footnote.
Money fled crypto into AI stocks and IPOs, the exact trade that cratered Friday. CryptoQuant says demand is falling fastest since Terra in 2022.
May CPI lands Wednesday near 4.2%, the 30-year holds above 5%, and Warsh chairs his first FOMC June 16. The calm is rented, and the lease is short.

The economy added 172,000 jobs and markets lost composure. S&P futures fell 2.6%, because good news now means no cuts, and no cuts means no rally.
Semiconductors led the unwind. Marvell down 16.7%, Micron 13.25%, Nvidia 6.2%. The same chips that built the record 7,600 close are now demolishing it.
Bitcoin held near $63,100, green, while blue chips bled. A record 13-day, $4.4 billion ETF exodus rolled on, and Strategy sold coins for the first time since 2022.
Brent topped $96 after Iran fired intercepted missiles at Israel. Markets called it a fragile ceasefire, which is the optimistic phrase for missiles still in the air.
Warsh chairs his first FOMC on June 16, hired to cut and handed a jobs report arguing he should not. Markets price a hold near 65%, and quietly eye hikes.

The Dow set a record on healthcare and financials whilst the chips that built 2026 stayed home. A rally led by the stocks you hide in is still a tell.
S&P futures slipped above 7,600 into the payrolls print. One number nobody could forecast now decides whether Thursday’s record was earned or merely rented.
Bitcoin fell near $64,000 as ETFs lost $3.4 billion over eleven sessions and Strategy sold coins for the first time since 2022. Never-sell, briefly.
Economists pinned May jobs anywhere from 80,000 to 125,000, unemployment near 4.3%. A 45,000 spread is not a forecast, it is a group shrug with footnotes.
The print lands at 8:30, the last labour read before Warsh’s first FOMC this month. A Fed promising to say less greets a market desperate for more.

Wall Street ignored a war for a fortnight, then noticed it in an afternoon. The Dow shed 620 points as the peace it kept pricing stubbornly refused to exist.
Broadcom beat and fell 13%. CrowdStrike beat and fell 10%. The two earnings hired to confirm the AI rally turned up and resigned on the spot.
The SPX read: oil reclaimed $97, yields climbed, and two weeks of optimism unwound before lunch. Friday’s payrolls inherit a tape that has stopped pretending.
Bitcoin hit $65,710, half its October high, while the never-sell firm sold. Analysts insisted it was planned, which is precisely what one says after selling.
May payrolls land Friday, the last number before Warsh’s first meeting. The tape priced calm for a fortnight and now owes the arithmetic, with late fees.

Futures slipped before the open. S&P E-minis off 0.26%, Nasdaq off 0.54%, as oil and yields rose. Two days of records met their first real test.
Chips carried Tuesday. Marvell jumped a third on a Huang compliment and HPE 19% on a raise. Alphabet fell 4% on an 80 billion dollar sale plan.
Bitcoin slid under 67,000 and Ethereum under 2,000. Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed 483.8 million Monday after May’s record 2.3 billion in outflows.
Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time since 2022. Just 32 coins from a 843,706-coin stack to fund a dividend, yet the never-sell narrative did not survive it.
Trump criticised Warsh two weeks before the new chair’s first meeting. Markets now price a 61% chance the Fed funds rate ends 2026 higher, not lower.