The VIX has gone through 16 and is nudging 17, SPX is below its 2 week vwap, and the sentiment charts show something that has been building quietly since April. A handful of stocks have been carrying the indexes while the rest of the market has been voting the other way. Inside: what 7,600 signals, the Asian session break on ES, Bitcoin’s crown approaching the first assessment level, and a full Wall of Wins.

For most of this year the overnight bounce has turned up on cue. This morning it didn’t. ES has gone near vertical lower from the European open, Uncle Russ is leading the charge as usual, and the VIX is climbing towards the one level that changes the picture entirely. Inside: what 7,650 on ES actually trips, and why the inverted trend line on Bitcoin has just done its job.

Month end accounting, no black Monday, and a VIX up nearly 6% without a sell off to point at. Inside: why Tesla’s old support has been promoted to resistance and where the V entry targets, plus an update on Bitcoin’s rounding top and the inside day that handed out another low risk way into the bear side.

Bitcoin has reached its short sale zone and the short is filled, so now the only question is whether the level holds. Meanwhile Mr SPX gapped higher, traded lower, then pushed back up anyway, and the system is flagging a bearish setup with a note attached telling you to leave it well alone.

Bitcoin went for a new high, got a rejection bar for its trouble, and is now sat at the range high having failed to break up and out. Inside: where the dumb money always puts its stop, why half the pattern height is not a risk control, the short filled at 80000, and an SPX gap of around 40 points that still has to prove itself.

The volatility expansion lasted a day. The SPX 3 day average is back to 40 points small, the VIX went for 16 and fizzled, and there is still nothing more than sput sput fizz on most of the moves. Inside: the PnF barrier at 7680 to 7700, crude back at the $80 level it keeps returning to, and the Pinocchio setup forming on Bitcoin.