Wall Street Threw a Peace Party. The 2-Year Sent Its Regrets.

Stock Market Edge

Relief Priced in Full. Warsh Hasn’t Spoken Yet. A peace rally walks into the new chair’s first dot plot.

Premarket snapshot:
Monday closed the way relief rallies do, broadly and loudly: S&P 500 up 1.49%, Nasdaq up 2.38%, Dow at a record, Russell up 0.79%. Tuesday’s futures open into a held breath, with everyone politely pretending the real event isn’t Wednesday. Confirm Tuesday premarket levels at print.

Sector rotation:
Money went where the fun was. Semiconductors bounced off Friday’s rout, with Micron and Western Digital leading the apology tour. Energy lagged as oil sank, airlines and cruise lines pocketed the cheaper fuel, and Ferrari added 5% because someone at Morgan Stanley likes expensive cars.

Earnings or guidance:
The deal tape wrote the single-stock story. Fox cratered nearly 18%, the worst in the S&P, after agreeing to buy Roku for $160 a share, an 11% premium, roughly $22 billion to own the remote control. SpaceX rose about 9% on day two, still worth more than two trillion dollars.

Cross-asset nuance:
Here is the part the rally skipped. The 2-year held above 4%, above the policy rate, because a 172,000 payrolls blowout and a sticky core don’t care that oil got cheaper. Peace fixed the headline inflation optics. It did not fix the Fed’s actual problem.

📊 There’s a level on SPX I’m watching closely this morning. My full analysis briefing has it – plus what happens if we hold it, and what happens if we don’t. [Read it here →]

Crypto Market Edge

Bitcoin Reclaimed $65K While $3.4 Billion Walked Out the ETF Door. Risk-on returned. The flows did not read the memo.

Price snapshot:
Bitcoin took the risk-on cue, pushing to a two-week high above $65,500 as the oil premium drained back into risk assets, with futures near $66,400 overnight. XRP added about 4% above $1.18. The crowd cheered, with one eye on the door.

Flows and positioning:
The door is the story. US spot bitcoin ETFs are limping through an 11-day redemption streak near $3.4 billion, May’s worst monthly outflow of the year. Price went up; the money kept leaving. Somebody is wrong, and the tape will say who.

Leadership and rotation:
Strategy bought another 1,587 bitcoin for $100 million, lifting the hoard to 846,842 coins. This is the firm that, having sworn it would never sell, sold for the first time in years, then bought thousands back below the price it sold at. Conviction, with a receipt.

Catalysts and roadmap:
Everything routes through Wednesday. A hawkish Warsh dot plot would test crypto’s nerve along with everything else; a neutral hold clears one overhang into Friday, when the market is shut for Juneteenth and the Iran deal supposedly signs without it.

TL;DR – The Bottom Line

• Stocks booked the Iran peace deal Monday, S&P up 1.49%, Nasdaq up 2.38%, Dow at a record. Oil paid the bill, down 5% to near $80.
• The one number that mattered stayed unimpressed: the 2-year above 4%, above the policy rate, hike odds near 80%. The front end isn’t buying the relief.
• Warsh gavels his first FOMC this week. A hold is 97% priced, so the dot plot and his debut tone, not the rate, are Wednesday’s actual event.
• Fox sank nearly 18% to buy Roku for $22 billion. SpaceX held above $2 trillion on day two. Semiconductors clawed back part of Friday’s brutal rout.
• Bitcoin reclaimed $65,500 even as roughly $3.4 billion left bitcoin ETFs over 11 days. Price went up, the money went out, and one of them is lying.

📌 Fun Fact

The biggest IPO in history priced at $135 a share.

SpaceX raised $85.7 billion including the greenshoe and cleared a $2 trillion valuation on its first day of trading.