No New Highs Yet – Just Premium Collectors Winning
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
This is what it looks like when the script holds.
The SPX is still capped under the now-notorious 6200 resistance level, and Monday’s forecasted sideways grind hasn’t let up. But it’s not just stalling – it’s shaping into something more surgical.
Bollinger Band Width has continued to contract and is now scraping near its local lows. A rising wedge is emerging from the noise – upward price action with decelerating momentum. The price is lifting, but %B and BBW indicators aren’t following. Add in a visually satisfying set of trendlines, and you get a classic curvature rollover.
And while the NATH crowd stares up at the sky yelling “Moon!” – we light a stogie and quietly whisper, “I love it when a plan comes together.”
No moon needed. Theta’s enough.
▶️ The wedge tightens. The drip pays. Read on for setups and signals.
Most Trade SPX Blind. You’ll Trade It Like You Designed It.
Pulse bars flip the lights on. You see it. Trade it. Bank it.
SPX Market Briefing
We are watching the market do exactly what it should.
SPX continues to grind below 6200. That level holds as a gamma wall and structural resistance from the measured move. There’s no appetite above – and no clean reversal below – just drift, grind, and time doing its work.
But now, the structure is morphing:
-
Rising wedge forms – subtle, but visual and measurable
-
Bollinger Band Width has collapsed again
-
%B and BBW divergences confirm reduced volatility momentum
-
Trendlines show a rounding of the top
The Advance-Decline Difference (ADD) on the lower left panel is also noteworthy – pushing toward its bullish extreme again. This doesn’t confirm bearish reversal, but it does remove upside confidence. It’s historically where price either stalls or reverts modestly.
All signs point to one thing:
Let premium do the work.
No reason to get directional here unless we break cleanly above 6200 or drop out of the wedge with force. Until then, Thurs Exp. spreads remain king.
In Other News…
Weak Dollar, Record Ticks, Delivery Tricks
Powell calm masks under-hood jitters
Opening note – Asia’s overnight cheer – fueled by a 4% rip in export earnings translated back into weaker dollars-handed U.S. futures a modest 0.3% lift.
Bridge sectors – Energy tried to riot early, but OPEC+ drip-feed talk cooled the crowd; XLE slipped from +0.8% to flat by 10 a.m. Industrials rode the FX wave, while Materials caught a copper bid on Chile port strikes.
Next twist – Tech held the line. Nvidia flirted with $4 tn again, masking Apple fatigue and Google antitrust grumbles. But wait- Consumer Discretionary took a gut-check: Tesla sank 3% pre-market on delivery-downgrade chatter, yanking XLY into negative territory despite Amazon Prime-Day hype.
Closing setup – Bond desks fretted over a 4.22% T-bill print-the highest since April-just as swap spreads widened on SLR-relief rumors. Vol sellers eyed the 5,650 SPX gamma hump: break above, and dealer hedges could catapult a melt-up; stumble below 5,600 and month-opening flows may flip risk-off.
Expert Insights:
Expert View – What The Charts Confirm
-
The rising wedge pattern combined with contracting Bollinger Band Width signals declining price momentum. This setup typically precedes either a grind-down or a short, sharp squeeze fakeout – but not clean trend continuation.
-
%B and BBW divergences signal that volatility isn’t confirming price. When price edges higher but volatility bands narrow and %B fades, the move lacks conviction.
-
The ADD (Advance-Decline Difference) revisiting bullish extremes while SPX fails to breakout suggests breadth is not aligned with further upside – this historically precedes short-term mean reversion.
Translation:
This isn’t a place to chase. It’s a place to collect and protect.
Rumour Has It…
A secret memo leaked from a major prop desk shows their July 4 macro model was replaced with a George Foreman Grill and a bottle of bourbon. Meanwhile, a rogue intern created a TradingView indicator that only plots BBQ timer countdowns – surprisingly accurate for theta decay.
And in a wild twist, one algo desk has renamed 6200 “Camp Theta” on all internal models.
Sources say Mac saluted the grill. Hazel has not spoken since. Wallie is suing someone.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the three trading days before July 4 have historically outperformed the days following the holiday
Additionally, research shows that the average weekly return for SPX during the week of July 4 is +0.52%, more than double the typical 0.20% weekly move.
That makes early July one of the rare holiday periods that consistently produces mild gains.
Given this weeks lack of movement, could we infer that next week will be a down week?
Premarket Price Action vs Holiday Seasonality
-
Historical pattern:
According to Stock Trader’s Almanac and multiple independent sources, the 3 trading days before July 4 tend to see modest gains. The week after July 4, however, has historically underperformed – especially when the pre-holiday rally was muted or failed altogether. -
This year’s context (2025):
SPX is flat-to-sideways into the holiday. No breakout. No strong pre-July 4 rally.
Bollinger Bands are squeezing. A rising wedge is forming.
Breadth isn’t confirming. Price is stalling near NATHs and fading internally.
Reasonable Inference
When the market fails to follow its typical bullish pre-holiday script, it often signals weakness in the underlying bid.
So yes – the failure to rally this week increases the probability of a soft or down week next week.
Not guaranteed. But:
-
No pre-holiday strength →
-
No bullish fuel left for post-holiday follow-through →
-
Traders returning to “meh” positioning and macro worry
Final Translation
If we don’t rally into the close Thursday…
Next week opens the door to downside mean reversion, wedge breaks, or IV expansion.
We’ll monitor those first 1–2 sessions closely.
Want that turned into a mini “What This Means For Next Week” callout?
Meme of the Day
“SPX Rising Wedge? I Just See More Premium Cooking.”
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
p.s. There are 3 ways I can help you…
- Option 1: The SPX Income System Book (Just $12)
A complete guide to the system.
Written to be clear, concise, and immediately actionable.
>> Get the Book Here
- Option 2: Full Course + Software Access – 50% off for Regular Readers – Save $998.50
Includes the video walkthroughs, tools for TradeStation & TradingView, and everything I use daily. Plus 7 additional strategies
>> Get DIY Training & Software
- Option 3: Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – 50% off for Regular Readers – Save $3,000
>> Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – trade live, twice a week, with me and the crew. PLUS Monthly on-demand 1-2-1’s
No fluff. Just profits, pulse bars, and patterns that actually work.
