Upper Band Holds Post-Breakout – Classic Trend Signal in Play | SPX Analysis 14 May 2025

Another Go/No-Go Session as Market Tests Both Bias Triggers

Ahoy there, Trader! ‍‍⚓️

It’s Phil…

Déjà vu? Not quite – but today’s session feels a lot like yesterday’s.

We’ve got a fresh mechanical bear trigger from a late-day Tag ‘n Turn setup. But much like the previous session, price action is telling us a different story.

Let’s walk through what I’m looking for.

Visual showing SPX trader calmly tracking bull/bear trigger zones while price clings to upper Bollinger Band.


⬇️⬇️⬇️ – keep scrolling for more in-depth analysis – ⬇️⬇️⬇️


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SPX Market Briefing

Yesterday’s session started with a bearish bias. But by the end of the day, the market voided the setup via the hedge trigger – and since I wasn’t positioned bearish, it was a clear signal to flip bullish.

Same playbook again today.

I entered yesterday bullish and didn’t babysit the charts. Today, I’m starting with a bearish mechanical trigger, but futures are holding up. There’s also a post-breakout continuation in play that’s clinging to the upper Bollinger Band – a strong sign of bullish trending momentum.

Bollinger himself suggested this as one of the most reliable signs of strength.

So what’s the move?

  • Bearish trigger? Yes.

  • Bear entry? Not yet.

  • I’ll defer bearish entries unless price breaks below the 5880 area, with a v-shaped entry.

  • If price stays above 5910, I’ll resume bullish activity as needed.

This is shaping up to be another go/no-go decision day – no need to guess, no need to jump early.

Let price make the choice. I’ll respond when it does.

SPX analysis 14 May 2025


GEX Analysis Update

  • 5900 is looking like the key GEX level again.

GEX analysis 14 May 2025


Expert Insights:

Mistake: Taking every mechanical setup without confirming price action
Fix: Use price structure (like Bollinger Band holds) to confirm trend integrity

Mistake: Jumping in without clear invalidation levels
Fix: Predefine bull/bear flip zones – today: 5880 and 5910

Mistake: Over-monitoring slow sessions
Fix: No need to stare at charts – mechanical setups do the heavy lifting

Educational comic showing how price context can override a mechanical bear trigger.


Rumour Has It…

Bollinger Band Declared Emotional Support Tool

Sources say traders have begun using the upper Bollinger Band like a weighted blanket. “As long as we’re above it,” one trader whispered from beneath a desk, “I feel safe.”

Psychologists confirm it’s become a market-wide security blanket, replacing support/resistance zones in all therapy sessions.

This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!

Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?

Comedy visual showing traders emotionally attached to the upper Bollinger Band breakout.


Fun Fact

John Bollinger designed his bands in the early 1980s – not just to spot reversals, but also to identify sustained breakouts.

When price hugs the upper band after a breakout, it’s often signalling continuation, not exhaustion. It’s a feature of trend momentum, not a warning of collapse.

Today’s chart is textbook.

The system gives us the setup. But the context? That’s where discretion adds juice to the edge.

Visual fact reinforcing how Bollinger Band holds after breakout signal sustained trends.

Meme of the Day

“Bear setup? Nah. Still hugging the band.”

Satirical comic of traders ignoring bear warnings while riding a bullish trend continuation.


Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece

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