Gold’s a Rocket Ship. Meta Bets $135B. Markets Can’t Get Any Weirder. | SPX Market Briefing | 29 Jan 2026

Multi-Market Status

SPX: Flat – Awaiting Fresh Setup. PFZ Level 6833.29. Target pending. But here’s the thing – price is unofficially bearish. Back at the range boundary with a V-shaped entry presenting itself. Same setup, opposite direction from the discretionary bullish play. Target is range lows. One of the 6 Money Making Patterns in action.

RUT: Bearish Below 2727.88. PFZ Level 2735.1. Target 2631.95. Still bearish. Still grinding. And for fun, I’ve spotted a head and shoulders pattern forming right at the NATH and range high. If the neckline breaks, we could finally see price push back into the range properly. Or it flips and flops. Month end approaching – we get paid either way.

ES Futures: 7,015 – touched 7,043 yesterday before retreating. The 7,000 party was short-lived.

NQ Futures: 26,197.50 – Meta’s 10% surge offset Microsoft’s 7% drop. Net result: basically flat.

YM Futures: 49,166 – recovering from the healthcare massacre, now dealing with Microsoft drag.

RTY Futures: 2,667.2 – grinding towards target. Head and shoulders pattern developing.

Gold: $5,525 – ROCKET SHIP MODE. Don’t stop it now. It’s having such a good time.

VIX: 16.72 – popped on Fed Day, immediately crashed back. Blue smarties and metaphoric couches.

Bitcoin: $87,900 – still stuck at $88K whilst gold parties. The “digital gold” narrative looking increasingly awkward.

The Contained Pattern Reality

Here’s what’s actually been happening since October:

The indexes have been trading in well-defined patterns. Rising channels. Consolidation ranges. Support and resistance levels that keep getting respected.

All the headlines about 7,000 and new highs? That’s noise. The structure hasn’t changed. Price touches the upper boundary, pulls back. Touches the lower boundary, bounces. Rinse and repeat.

Yesterday was the perfect example. S&P touched 7,000 – the upper boundary of this entire move – and immediately retreated. Closed flat. The pattern holds.

What changes things: A decisive break above with follow-through. Or a decisive break below. Until then? Same ranges. Same setups. Same opportunities.

The SPX Bearish Setup

Let’s talk about what’s developing on SPX:

Price is back at the range boundary – the upper edge of this consolidation we’ve been tracking. The V-shaped entry that worked for the discretionary bullish swing? Same pattern, opposite direction.

The Setup:

• Price at upper range boundary
• V-shaped entry presenting
• Target: range lows (around 6873 area marked on chart)
• This is one of the 6 Money Making Patterns – sell the rally at range resistance

We’re officially flat on the TnT system, awaiting fresh setup. But the discretionary read says bearish at these levels makes sense. The same pattern recognition that caught the bounce now suggests the fade.

The RUT Head and Shoulders

Something interesting forming on Russell:

Right at the NATH and range high, there’s a pattern that looks suspiciously like a head and shoulders. Left shoulder, head at the absolute peak, right shoulder forming now.

What it could mean:

• If neckline breaks, classic H&S target takes price well into the range
• Confirms the bearish TnT signal we’ve been riding
• Finally gives RUT the catalyst to push back into its larger consolidation

Or:

• It flips and flops like everything else this month
• Month end sees prices pause before moving

Either way – the bearish swing is positioned, target at 2631.95. We get paid on direction or time decay. The pattern is just context.

Fed Day Premium Seller Lesson

Three trades during the group calls yesterday. All winners. On Fed Day.

Trade 1 – RUT ORB20: Bear break off the 5-day VWAP. $16 index move. 59.1% ROC.

Trade 2 – SPX ORB20: Bear break off the new all-time high. $10 index move. 62.9% ROC.

Trade 3 – RUT VWAP Retest: Meandered sideways. $2 index move. 58.3% ROC. Profits from time decay, not direction.

The lesson: “What about FOMC?”

Make a decision. Trade them or don’t trade them. It makes little difference to premium sellers.

We’re not betting on what Powell says. We’re not predicting the market’s reaction. We’re selling premium into elevated volatility and letting theta do the work.

Trade 3 is the perfect example – price went sideways during FOMC nonsense, and we still collected 58% ROC from time decay alone.

Popper Stats (30-day rolling):

• Bull Win: 86.1% (31/36)
• Bear Win: 96% (24/25)
• Total Win: 90.2% (55/61)

The Big Tech Divergence

Yesterday’s earnings told three very different stories:

Meta (+10%): Revenue $59.9B (+24%). EPS $8.88. Then the bombshell – 2026 capex guidance of $115-135 billion for “superintelligence” infrastructure. Zuckerberg’s biggest AI bet ever. Market loved it.

Microsoft (-7%): Beat revenue ($81.3B). But Azure grew “only” 39%. Below whispers. Capex hit record $37.5B. Market hated it. Cloud deceleration spooks everyone questioning AI payoff timelines.

Tesla (+2%): Quietly beat. EPS 50c vs 45c expected. Revenue fell 3% but robotaxi progress and $2B xAI investment lifted spirits.

SAP (-14%): The nightmare scenario. Cloud backlog grew 16% vs 26% expected. CFO warned AI could let customers “do everything themselves.” Enterprise software existential crisis in real time.

Tonight: Apple reports. The last of the mega-caps. Then shutdown deadline Friday midnight.

---

Expert Insights

The Fed Day Trading Myth

Conventional wisdom says avoid trading on Fed days – too much uncertainty, too much volatility, too much risk of getting whipsawed by Powell’s comments.

The data tells a different story for premium sellers.

VIX typically elevates into Fed decisions, pricing in uncertainty. This elevated IV means richer premiums. When the decision lands (usually as expected – holds are boring), IV often crushes regardless of direction.

Premium sellers profit from this IV crush. Whether price goes up, down, or sideways, the volatility premium deflates post-announcement.

Yesterday’s three trades demonstrated this perfectly. Directional bets could have been whipsawed. Premium collection worked regardless of Powell’s word choices.

[Source: Options pricing dynamics around FOMC announcements]