3 of 4 Indexes Breaking Back Into Range – Could Be Pullback Before Further Down
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Well, very little changed in 24 hours. Again.
The anticipated pauses at the prior NATHs came to fruition. Without a little over-reaction – which the talking heads will no doubt be calling “a bounce.”
I still see price meandering at these levels. And as price is breaking back into the range we’ve been following on 3 of the 4 main indexes, this could simply be the pullback after the break for potential further down moves.
I would need to see price push back out the range to consider breakout setups again and a push to ever higher NATHs.
Over on SPX, I’ve manually marked off the charts for clarity:
SPX had a range – which broke down and out, nudged its BO target, and is now back in bullish mode.
I think we’ll see price retest the breakout range lows again before seeing what happens next: Breaking back into the price range and a run to NATHs, or a pop ‘n drop through the prior NATH which is acting as support and a subsequent drive to the larger range lows noted on the daily chart.
Time will tell all.
Keep scrolling for the systematic patience lesson…
Markets Pause. Talking Heads Say “Bounce”. System Says “Wait For Confirmation”.
SPX Market Briefing:
Very little change in 24 hours as anticipated pauses at prior NATHs materialise without over-reaction (talking heads calling “bounce”), 3 of 4 indexes breaking back into range creating potential pullback-before-further-down scenario, SPX broke down and nudged BO target 6763.80 now testing support, whilst systematic traders exercise patience waiting for price confirmation rather than predicting next directional move.
Current Multi-Market Status:
- ES: 6825.00, testing breakout range lows as support, meandering
- RTY: 2455.8, back inside range after leading bear charge
- YM: 47,413, pausing at prior NATH support
- NQ: 25,734.75, back inside established range
- CL: $60.11, still hovering just above $60 psychological level
- GC: ~$3900s, sideways stall continuing
- VIX: 18.06, elevated but declining from 19.47 yesterday
- 2yr Bonds: 3.613%
Very Little Changed – Anticipated Pauses Playing Out
Well, very little changed in 24 hours. Again.
Mon/Tue: Weird funky behaviour, Mag7 tipping, bear charge intensifying.
Wed: Price pausing at technical levels. Testing support. Meandering.
The anticipated pauses at the prior NATHs came to fruition. Systematic frameworks expected this. Prior resistance becomes support. Markets test these levels before confirming direction.
Current positioning:
- ES 6825 (testing support at prior NATH)
- YM 47,413 (pausing at prior NATH)
- NQ 25,734 (back inside range and at prior NATH)
- RTY 2455 (back inside after leading lower – leading the bear charge)
Talking heads calling “a bounce.” Systematic traders seeing anticipated technical testing. A bounce implies bullish reversal confirmed. A pause means neither side winning yet. Confirmation still required.
Current Status: Pauses at prior NATHs anticipated, no over-reaction confirming reversal, systematic patience required
3 of 4 Back Inside Range – Pullback or Reversal?
Price is breaking back into the range we’ve been following on 3 of the 4 main indexes.
This could be:
- Pullback after breakdown – testing levels before resuming lower
- Failed breakdown – bulls reclaiming range
- Range-bound again – back to neutral trading
Classic post-breakdown behaviour: Break support → reach target → pull back to test → then either resume lower or reverse higher.
3 of 4 indexes now back inside ranges. Uncle Russell back inside after leading. ES testing. NQ testing. The question: Pullback before more downside, or reversal back into range?
I would need to see price push back out the range to consider breakout setups again and a push to ever higher NATHs.
Mechanical rule stated clearly: No bullish breakout positioning until price breaks back OUT of the range with conviction. Until then, neutral observation and Premium collection.
Current Status: 3 of 4 back inside range, potential pullback-after-break scenario, confirmation required before directional commitment
SPX: Broke Down, Nudged Target, Now Testing
SPX had a range – which broke down and out, nudged its BO target, and is now back in bullish mode.
The sequence:
- Range established with clear boundaries
- Broke down below support – bear positioning triggered
- Nudged 6763.80 target – mechanical profit-taking zone
- Rallied back, now testing broken range lows
Textbook post-breakdown behaviour.
I think we’ll see price retest the breakout range lows again before seeing what happens next:
Two probable scenarios:
Scenario 1: Breaking back into the price range and a run to NATHs (6920.21). Bulls reclaim range. Bullish setups trigger.
Scenario 2: Pop ‘n drop through the prior NATH acting as support, then drive to larger range lows on the daily chart. Bear continuation confirmed.
Both possible. Neither confirmed yet.
Current Status: SPX nudged 6763.80 target, testing resistance, two scenarios possible, waiting for confirmation
Time Will Tell All
Time will tell all.
Systematic trading acknowledges uncertainty. We don’t know if this pause is pullback before more downside or failed breakdown reversing higher.
Time will tell. Price will confirm. Then we’ll position accordingly.
Wednesday’s newsletter: Act on confirmed setups (Mag7 distribution, META 600% ROC).
Thursday’s newsletter: Wait during unclear action (meandering at support).
The systematic advantage: Knowing when to act AND when to wait.
Until confirmation: Premium/Lazy Poppers tick over. Volatility collection proceeds. Larger directional positions wait.
The systematic approach: Ready for any outcome. Positioned for none until confirmed.
Current Status: Bullish, mechanical rules ready to respond to setups not prediction, patience during uncertainty
In Other News…
Markets Tread Water Whilst Everything Burns
Shutdown Day 35, Tesla votes, tariff rulings loom. Markets respond with collective shrug.
Markets achieved perfect stillness Wednesday whilst government dysfunction hit record Day 35 and Palantir’s CEO called short-sellers “batshit crazy” defending his 640x P/E ratio. Tesla shareholders vote at 4 PM on decisions nobody understands, Supreme Court considers undoing $4 trillion in tariffs, and VIX jumped 10.3% suggesting someone’s actually paying attention.
The Recovery That Recovered Nothing
Wednesday’s rally recovered Tuesday’s AI valuation panic through advanced technique of pretending nothing’s wrong. Tech rebounded despite AMD missing margin guidance, Nvidia stabilizing after -4% drop, and Palantir extending collapse to 8% despite beating every metric. Markets treating 640x P/E as “totally normal valuation” until suddenly it wasn’t.
When CEOs Fight Reality With Profanity
Palantir’s Karp blasted Michael Burry’s $1B short as “batshit crazy” whilst institutions quietly exited—JPMorgan cutting 32%, T. Rowe dumping 24%. Company delivered $1.18B revenue up 63% YoY but apparently numbers don’t matter when valuation defies mathematics. Tonight brings Qualcomm, Coinbase, Arm testing whether chip sector stabilizes or discovers more gravity.
⚖️ Supreme Court Discovers Tariffs Exist
Court skepticism on tariff authority Wednesday’s biggest catalyst—ruling could roll back duties on $4 trillion trade potentially easing inflation. Markets celebrating prospect of undoing policies via judicial intervention because apparently that’s normal economic management now. Shutdown Day 35 delays jobs data meaning Fed flies blind whilst Supreme Court considers rewriting trade policy.
☕ Hazel’s Take
Markets treading water whilst record dysfunction, CEO profanity, and potential $4 trillion policy reversals swirl around them. When Tesla votes, Supreme Court rules, and shutdown finally matters, calm won’t last—it’ll be “should’ve hedged” moment.
-Hazel, FinNuts
Rumour Has It…
Breaking from the Financial Nuts newsroom: Percy was discovered teaching his desk pigeons “Meandering At Support Without Conviction Formation Flying” whilst analysing 3-of-4-back-inside-range patterns and claiming they had mastered “Time Will Tell All Advanced Patience Cooing With Confirmation-Awaiting Discipline.”
Hazel updated her crisis management protocols to include “Anticipated Pause Recognition Emergency Procedures” alongside contingency plans for “Pullback vs Reversal Scenario Integration With Pop ‘N Drop Monitoring And Premature Positioning Prevention Protocols.”
Mac raised his Thursday whisky and declared, “When price meanders at prior NATHs whilst talking heads call bounces and systematic traders exercise patience awaiting confirmation rather than prediction, mechanical discipline becomes delightfully superior to narrative-driven guessing!”
Kash attempted livestreaming about “meandering being basically like DeFi sideways consolidation but with actual technical support testing” but got distracted calculating whether “time will tell all” counts as alpha or just patient observation.
Wallie grumbled that in his day, market pauses meant “proper consolidation with clear patterns rather than this modern meandering behaviour with 3-of-4-back-inside-range confusion and talking-head bounce narratives!”
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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