Two Trades, Two Wins – 96.5% and 90% ROC Welcome Me Back to the Desk | Post-Trade Debrief | 20 Jan 2026

Trade 1: Tag ‘n Turn Swing – 96.5% ROC

The Setup:

This time last week, price was sitting at the upper end of the longer-term rising channel. The bear bias was clear. The pattern was clear. The only thing left to do was execute and wait.

So that’s exactly what I did. Swing on, then sit back.

The Execution:

• Premium Collected: $2.90
• Bought Back: $0.10
• ROC: 96.5%
• Index Move: $120

Monday’s and Tuesday’s post-tariff nonsense provided the catalyst, but the setup was there before Trump decided to play Greenland Monopoly. The systematic approach doesn’t need to predict news – it positions for the probability.

The Runway:

There’s still a fair amount of room to move towards the lower edge of the range. This swing delivered beautifully, but the larger pattern may have more to give.

Trade 2: Lazy Day Trade – 90.0% ROC

The Setup:

Price was well below the 2-day VWAP. That gives me a bear bias – simple rule, no interpretation needed.

Then the current day’s VWAP was reclaimed. New bear trade taken.

The Execution:

• Premium Collected: $3.00
• Bought Back: $0.30
• ROC: 90.0%
• Index Move: $52

It’s called a Lazy Day Trade for a reason. Collect premium. Wait. Let theta do its job. Buy back for pennies.

The Stats (Last 30 days Visible on Chart):

• Bull Win Rate: 66.7% (20/30)
• Bear Win Rate: 80.6% (25/31)
• Total Win Rate: 73.8% (45/61)
• Status: BREAKOUT (30 days)

That bear win rate at 80.6% tells you everything about the current environment. When the system says bear, the bears are delivering.

The Bigger Picture

Two very simple trades for today.

No heroics. No predictions. No staring at screens trying to guess what Trump might tweet next.

The swing was set last week based on channel position. The day trade was taken based on VWAP rules. Both worked because the rules work – not because I’m clever, but because the system is mechanical.

First day back from illness and the desk welcomed me with nearly 190% combined ROC across two positions. If that’s not a sign that systematic beats emotional, I don’t know what is.

Trade Summary:

Expert Insights:

The Beauty of “Set and Forget”

The Tag ‘n Turn swing was placed this time last week. For the next several days – including three spent in a dark room with a migraine – that position simply existed. No adjustments. No panic. No checking every five minutes.

The Lazy Day Trade lived up to its name. VWAP gave the bias. VWAP reclaim gave the entry. Premium decay gave the profit.

This is what mechanical trading looks like in practice. The rules don’t care about your health, your mood, or your opinions about Greenland. They just execute.