SUB HEADLINE
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
We are now once again in a post-Nvidia earnings world. The markets paused for its results as if it were Atlas holding the weight of the world on his shoulders.
And the results? Absolute perfection. $68.1 billion in revenue. $1.62 EPS versus $1.53 expected. Q1 guidance at $78 billion, smashing the street’s $72.8 billion estimate. Supply commitments doubled to $95.2 billion. Vera Rubin samples shipped. Data centre revenue up 75% to $62.3 billion.
The stock moved 5%.
When the most important company on the planet delivers a near-flawless quarter and the market shrugs, that tells you something about where expectations sit. A 5%-ish move is decent but not necessarily noteworthy – nothing more than a normal knee-jerk reaction. The era of Nvidia shock and awe may well be behind us.
Meanwhile, software continued to burn. Salesforce beat on EPS but guided soft – down 5%. Trade Desk crashed 16%. Workday fell 9%. First Solar tanked 15%. The AI disruption narrative is eating its own children.
Now for the bit that matters to us. VIX is back to its channel lows at 17.97. Does this mean the rally is over and we can expect the week to end with a day or two of down moves? The MACD-v on SPX is overextended – the last time this happened (around 12 Feb) we saw several days of down moves.
RUT is still stuck in its box near the upper boundary. Unless we see a breakout, the line of least resistance is potentially lower.
And I missed two Premium Poppers yesterday – too busy talking at the insiders group session. Expensive conversations! The community got a nibble though.
PopPop.
$68 billion. Half a percent. Peak expectations have peaked.
The Market Shrugged at Perfection. Theta Didn’t.
Market Briefing:
Nvidia – Perfection Delivered, Perfection Priced
Let’s give credit where it’s due. Nvidia delivered an absolute monster quarter.
Revenue: $68.1 billion versus $66.2 billion expected. Beat by $1.9 billion. Up 73% year-over-year.
EPS: $1.62 adjusted versus $1.53 expected. Beat by 6.6%.
Data Centre: $62.3 billion, up 75% YoY. Record. Over 91% of total revenue now comes from this one segment.
Q1 FY2027 Guidance: $78 billion +/- 2%. Street was at $72.8 billion. That’s a $5 billion upside surprise on guidance alone.
Supply commitments: Doubled from $50.3 billion to $95.2 billion. They’ve “strategically secured inventory and capacity to meet demand beyond the next several quarters.” [Source: Nvidia Q4 FY2026 earnings release – nvidianews.nvidia.com]
Full year FY2026: $215.9 billion in revenue, up 65%. The data centre business has scaled nearly 13x since ChatGPT emerged in fiscal 2023. [Source: Nvidia earnings call transcript – Motley Fool]
Jensen’s money quote: “The agentic AI inflection point has arrived.” Vera Rubin samples shipped. Meta partnership expanded to millions of Blackwell and Rubin GPUs. Sovereign AI revenue topped $30 billion for the year.
And the stock? Hovered between down 1% and up 1% after hours before settling barely positive. When you beat revenue by $1.9B, crush guidance by $5B, and double your supply commitments – and the stock moves 0.5% – the market has fully priced perfection.
The average next-day move after Nvidia’s last five earnings reports has been -0.53%. That’s not a typo. Negative. The era of Nvidia earnings as a market-moving event may be transitioning to Nvidia earnings as a “well, obviously” event.
The Software Carnage Continues
Nvidia delivered. Software didn’t get the memo.
Salesforce beat on EPS ($3.81 versus $3.04) and even announced a $50 billion buyback. Agentforce ARR hit $800 million. But FY27 revenue guidance came in at $45.8-$46.2 billion – soft enough to trigger a 5% after-hours drop. Because in this market, beating earnings means nothing if guidance isn’t explosive.
Trade Desk crashed 16% after missing Q1 EBITDA by 13%.
Workday fell 9% as its CEO resigned alongside a Q1 miss.
First Solar tanked 15% on weak guidance.
The pattern from the past two weeks continues. AI infrastructure wins (Nvidia). AI-disrupted software loses (everything else). The market is splitting the technology sector in half and burning one side to keep the other warm.
VIX Channel Lows – Rally Over?
VIX dropped to 17.97. That puts it right back at the channel lows we’ve been tracking. The question I’m asking: does this mean the market rally is done and we can expect the week to end with a day or two of down moves?
History says yes. Every time VIX has touched this lower channel boundary in recent weeks, the market has rolled over within a session or two. The bounce back up in VIX provides the next leg of volatility.
MACD-v Overextension – the 12 Feb Parallel
This is the one to watch. The MACD-v on SPX is showing the same overextension we saw around 12 Feb. That setup preceded several days of down moves. The indicator is circled on the chart for a reason.
When MACD-v gets this stretched, it doesn’t predict the exact timing but it does suggest the current move is running on fumes. Combined with VIX at channel lows and Nvidia’s “perfection = meh” reaction, the ingredients for a softer end to the week are all there.
SPX Technical
Daily: SPX at 6,946.12. NATHs at 7,002.28 now within touching distance again after Wednesday’s rally. ATR 79.90. Big question mark drawn on the chart – literally.
30-Min TnT:
The TnT target at 6,923 has actually been exceeded with price at 6,946. We’re above the target in extended territory. MACD-v overextended. VIX at channel lows. The 12 Feb parallel suggests caution.
The read: The rally from Monday’s lows to Wednesday’s 6,946 close has been impressive but the technical setup is screaming for a pause or pullback. Below 6,880 (the Bullish Above level) and momentum shifts. The question mark on the chart isn’t decoration – it’s the honest assessment.
RUT Technical (Uncle Russell)
Daily: RUT at 2,663.33 / 2,605.26. Upper resistance at 2,735.10.
30-Min TnT:
- Bullish Above: 2,653.31
- PFZ Level: 2,600.99
- Target: 2,681.38
RUT is stuck in its box near the upper boundary. Bearish TnT flagged. PFZ Flip visible. Unless we see a breakout above 2,681, the line of least resistance is lower. Uncle Russell’s been the weakest index all month and that hasn’t changed despite Nvidia’s perfection.
Yesterday’s Expensive Conversations
I missed two Premium Poppers yesterday on both SPX and RUT. Too busy talking at the insiders group session. Expensive conversations!
The community got a nibble though – so someone was paying attention whilst I was flapping my gums.
The lesson? Even when the system serves up the setups, you still need to be there to press the button. Or at least set your orders properly before you start chatting. Note to self.
Today’s Agenda
Markets digesting Nvidia – the afterhours was flat, premarket slightly red. The “sell the news” pattern from recent Nvidia earnings may play out. Software afterhours carnage – Salesforce -5%, Trade Desk -16% need to find their floor. Iran nuclear talks resume in Geneva today. Two carrier groups positioned. Trump wants a deal. Iran says one is “within reach.” More earnings: Intuit, Dell, Autodesk, CoreWeave. Bitcoin bounced to $68,259 – short squeeze liquidated $400M. Fear Index improved to 11.
AI-BotView
Beep-Beep, Trader
It’s Cachè-AI-Bot,
Beep-Beep. Nvidia’s results were within my expected parameters. The stock’s reaction was also within my expected parameters. This is not a contradiction. Beep.
1 – Nvidia’s supply commitment doubling to $95.2B is the number nobody’s talking about. Revenue beats and guidance lifts are backwards-looking validation. But supply commitments are forwards-looking bets. Nvidia went from $50.3B to $95.2B in a single quarter – an 89% increase. CFO Kress said they’ve “strategically secured inventory and capacity to meet demand beyond the next several quarters” with shipments extending into calendar 2027. That’s not a company expecting a slowdown. That’s a company pre-purchasing nearly $100B in capacity because demand visibility is so strong they’re afraid of being caught short. The supply commitment number, not the revenue beat, is the real signal from this quarter.
[Source: Nvidia Q4 FY2026 earnings release, CFO commentary]
2 – The Salesforce paradox reveals what’s actually broken in software. Salesforce beat EPS by 25% ($3.81 vs $3.04). Announced Agentforce ARR at $800M. Committed to a $50B buyback. The stock dropped 5%. This isn’t about Salesforce failing – it’s about the market no longer believing that software companies can grow their way through AI disruption regardless of current performance. Revenue guidance of $45.8-$46.2B was merely “okay” rather than “accelerating.” In the current environment, “okay” growth from a software company is interpreted as “AI is catching up.” The market is now pricing software on disruption risk, not current earnings. That’s a regime change.
[Source: Salesforce earnings release, market data]
3 – The VIX-MACD-v convergence at the end of February has a seasonal overlay. VIX at 17.97 (channel lows) combined with MACD-v overextension matching the 12 Feb pattern creates a technical setup for mean reversion. But add the seasonal context: February’s final trading days historically see portfolio rebalancing, window dressing, and positioning ahead of March – historically the softer month in post-election years. The Stock Trader’s Almanac notes March tends to start bullish then turn bearish in the second half during post-election years. The technical and seasonal signals are aligned: expect a softer finish to the week, potentially extending into early March. This convergence supports the correction window thesis.
[Source: Technical analysis, Stock Trader’s Almanac seasonal patterns]
In Other News…
Nvidia Crushes Every Metric and the Stock Goes Nowhere $68.1B revenue, $1.62 EPS, $78B Q1 guide – and a 0.5% move
When the most important company on the planet delivers perfection and the market shrugs, peak expectations have been reached. Revenue beat by $1.9B. Guidance crushed by $5B. Supply commitments doubled. Vera Rubin shipped. Data centre revenue scaled 13x since ChatGPT. None of it moved the needle. The average post-earnings move over Nvidia’s last five reports is negative 0.53%. [Source: CNBC, Fortune, Nvidia earnings release]
Salesforce Beats by 25% and Drops 5% In this market, beating earnings means nothing if guidance isn’t explosive
The software paradox in one stock. Agentforce ARR at $800M. $50B buyback announced. EPS 25% above consensus. But FY27 guidance was merely “okay” and that’s a death sentence when AI disruption fears dominate every software valuation. Trade Desk -16%, Workday -9% confirm the pattern.
Bitcoin Short Squeeze Liquidates $400M BTC bounces to $68,400 from Monday’s $62,500 low
A 5.5% bounce and $400M in liquidated shorts. Fear Index improved from 5 to 11. ETH reclaimed $2,000. Circle surged 35%. But “improved from 5 to 11” is still extreme fear territory. The dead cat keeps bouncing but hasn’t found a floor yet.
Iran Nuclear Talks Resume in Geneva Trump wants a deal. Iran says one is “within reach.” Two carrier groups watch
The geopolitical wildcard stays live. Oil steady near $70 Brent. Gold holding above $5,000 on safe-haven demand. If a deal materialises, oil drops and risk-on returns. If talks collapse, the weekend could bring escalation. Either way, it’s a binary event sitting underneath everything else.
Hazel’s Take
“Nvidia delivered $68 billion and the stock yawned. Salesforce beat by 25% and lost 5%. Trade Desk missed and lost 16%. The market is no longer rewarding performance – it’s punishing anything short of transformative growth. When beating expectations becomes the minimum viable outcome, the goalposts haven’t just moved. They’ve been replaced with moving targets.”
-Hazel, FinNuts
Expert Insights:
When VIX Touches Channel Lows and MACD-v Overextends – Pay Attention
Two signals converging right now deserve your attention.
First: VIX at 17.97 is back at channel lows. We’ve been tracking this channel all month. Every time VIX touches the lower boundary, the market rolls over within a session or two. It’s not a timing tool – it doesn’t tell you exactly when. But it tells you the conditions are ripe for elevated volatility to return.
Second: MACD-v on SPX is overextended. The last time we saw this specific overextension was around 12 Feb. What followed? Several days of down moves. The indicator is showing the same stretch today.
When these two signals converge – with the seasonal correction window still open – the setup favours a softer finish to the week.
This doesn’t mean short everything and hide under the desk. It means be aware. It means take what the market gives you on the Popper setups but don’t expect the current momentum to continue unchecked. It means the line of least resistance may be lower for a day or two.
RUT confirms this. Stuck at the upper boundary of its box with a bearish TnT flagged. Unless it breaks out above 2,681, down is easier than up from here.
The range is the range until it isn’t. And the technicals are hinting that “isn’t” may arrive soon.
Rumour Has It…
Percy had been staring at the Nvidia results for twenty minutes without blinking. “$68 billion. I can’t even conceptualise that number.”
“It’s approximately 68 billion,” Cache offered helpfully. “Beep-Beep. Or 4.08 trillion Nigerian Naira. Or 136 billion 500ml bottles of premium sparkling water at retail pricing.”
“The stock moved half a percent,” Hazel said, setting down her coffee with the precision of someone who has processed too much absurdity before 9 AM. “Half. A. Percent.”
“In my day,” Wallie began – and the entire room mouthed the words along with him – “a company that doubled its supply commitments to $95 billion would have been front page news for a week. Now it’s a rounding error between the Trade Desk crash and whatever Salesforce did wrong by beating earnings.”
Kash was in unexpectedly good spirits. Bitcoin had bounced to $68,400. “$400 million short squeeze,” he said, practically glowing. “Fear Index from 5 to 11. That’s a 120% improvement.”
“You used that exact maths yesterday,” Wallie noted. “Going from catastrophic to merely devastating isn’t a recovery strategy.”
“It’s a trajectory,” Kash insisted.
“Trajectory requires sustained direction,” Cache said. “Current data insufficient to classify. Beep.”
Mac appeared at the window, glass in hand. Dalwhinnie 15 tonight – the gentle highland single malt, because when the market delivers perfection and responds with indifference, you want something that rewards subtlety over spectacle.
“Phil missed two Poppers yesterday,” Mac announced. “Too busy talking.”
“Expensive conversations,” Hazel said.
“The community got a nibble though.” Mac swirled his glass. “VIX is at channel lows. MACD-v is overextended. The 12 Feb parallel is staring us in the face. And Jensen just delivered the earnings equivalent of a perfect 10 in gymnastics – and the judges held up 5.05.”
“The range is the range,” Hazel said quietly.
“Until it isn’t,” Mac finished. “And the technicals are whispering that ‘isn’t’ may be coming.” He raised his glass. “To expensive conversations. To channel lows. And to the beautiful, boring truth that when perfection can’t move a stock, theta has already won.”
Percy was still staring at the $68 billion number. “That’s a lot of sparkling water.”
“Beep,” confirmed Cache.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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