Dead Cat Confirmed – The Mid-Week Bounce Was the Distraction, the Breakdown Was the Message
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Friday the 13th. Brent crude above $100. The Dow down 739 points yesterday. A new Iranian supreme leader whose first public statement was that Hormuz stays closed as a “tool of pressure.”
The market didn’t need a black cat walking across its path. It had geopolitics, stagflation risk, and a VIX that refused to come down all week to do the job instead.
The mid-week bounce? Dead cat. Called it yesterday. The bears had the ball and they kept it. Both SPX and RUT remain below their respective breakdown levels with the MACDv in full bear trend mode on both. There is no ambiguity in the read this morning – nice and simple, fewer interpretations, the chart is doing the talking.
One small aside before the analysis – I’ve flipped the Bollinger Bands from 50 to 30 periods. Slightly faster turn signal. That means 3-5 DTE should be fine rather than the 7-DTE I’ve been running. I’ll walk through that and the other strategy adjustments you can make on Monday’s Insiders Call – Click Here.
Yesterday’s trades are wrapped up in the weekly debrief if you want the full picture.
Friday the 13th. Bears in Charge. VIX Said So All Week. Let’s Go.
Market Briefing:
Friday 13 Mar. Thursday closed at 2026 lows: Dow -739pts to 46,677, S&P -1.52% to 6,672, Nasdaq -1.78% to 22,311. Brent settled above $100 Thursday – first close above $100 since August 2022 – WTI at $95.73, up 38% since Operation Epic Fury launched February 28.
Iran’s new supreme leader Khamenei issued his first public statement: Hormuz stays closed, a “tool of pressure.” 16 tankers struck, traffic near zero, 20% of global oil stranded. PCE lands at 08:30 ET today – headline 2.7% expected, core near 3%, Fed’s preferred gauge ahead of March 17-18 FOMC.
Goldman revised to September for the first cut. Futures flat pre-market after yesterday’s rout. Dead cat bounce confirmed – bears have the ball going into Friday the 13th.
Market Snapshot
- ES: 6,675 / NATHs 7,043 / flat pre-market after Thursday’s 2026 lows
- YM: 46,721 / NATHs 50,611 / Dow -739 Thursday, leading the bleed
- NQ: 24,526 / NATHs 26,399 / -1.78% Thursday, tech still under pressure
- RTY: 2,490.2 / NATHs 2,749.2
- GC: 5,090.0 / NATHs 5,626.8 / slipped roughly 3% since Epic Fury began – decoupling from safe-haven role
- CL: 95.80 / Brent settled $100.46 Thursday – first above $100 since August 2022
- VIX: 27.06 / held range highs all week – the tell that the bounce wasn’t going to stick
- BTC/USD: ~72,049 / up 7% since Feb 28, outperforming SPX, gold and silver
Tag ‘n Turn
Both instruments flipped to bearish this week and neither has given any reason to reconsider that read.
SPX is Bearish Below 6,796.09 with a PFZ at 6,845.08 and a target of 6,726.76. RUT is Bearish Below 2,553.55 with a PFZ at 2,591.33 and a target of 2,509.57. Both MACDv indicators are in full bear trend mode. The VIX holding its range highs all week was the confirmation that the mid-week indecision was exactly that – indecision, not reversal.
Current Status: SPX Bearish Below 6,796.09 / PFZ 6,845.08 / Target 6,726.76 / ATR 81.92 — RUT Bearish Below 2,553.55 / PFZ 2,591.33 / Target 2,509.57
*Note the above comment – 50 to 30 periods on the bollinger bands
SPX Analysis
Bearish. Nice and simple. Fewer interpretations. The MACDv is doing the talking.
The chart confirmed the dead cat read from yesterday. Price stayed below the breakdown levels, the mid-week recovery failed to reclaim anything meaningful, and Thursday’s close at 2026 lows sealed it. The Bearish TnT signal is in place and the MACDv is in full bear trend mode – no mixed signals here.
The one fly in the ointment is the ADD sitting in its bear extreme zone. Should the bear trend continue today – and there’s no obvious reason it won’t given the week’s trajectory – a gap higher on ADD would give it some wiggle room to push lower. That’s a pattern seen multiple times recently and worth watching at the open.
Current Status: Bearish Below 6,796.09 / PFZ 6,845.08 / Target 6,726.76 / MACDv full bear trend / ADD at bear extreme – watch for gap higher open
RUT Analysis
Uncle Russell is also bearish. Also nice and simple. Also MACDv in bear trend mode.
RUT confirmed the same read as SPX – below the breakdown level, Bearish TnT signal in place, no ambiguity in the chart. The target at 2,509.57 remains the downside objective if the bear trend continues through today’s session. The mid-week Bullish TnT that briefly appeared did its job as a distraction and has now been overtaken by the renewed bear move.
Current Status: Bearish Below 2,553.55 / PFZ 2,591.33 / Target 2,509.57 / MACDv bear trend confirmed
After Action Report – 12 Mar 2026 | Premium Popper | ORB20
Yesterday’s trades are fully documented in the weekly debrief alongside the rest of the week.
SPX ran 4 trades (64.3% / 65.5% / -93.5% / 90.0% ROC). RUT ran 2 trades (64.3% / 65.5% ROC). The penny that stopped T3 and the lazy day trade that paid 90% right behind it – all in there with the full week context.
The complete 22-trade week breakdown – every day, every ROC, every lesson – Cllick Here
Current Status: 6 trades / 5 wins / 1 loss / full week debrief live
Rounding Off
Brent above $100 is not a headline. It is a regime change.
The last close above $100 was August 2022. WTI is up 38% since Operation Epic Fury launched on February 28. Iran’s new supreme leader Khamenei issued his first public statement Thursday: Hormuz stays closed. A “tool of pressure” in his words. 16 tankers struck. Traffic near zero. 20% of global oil effectively stranded. The IEA’s 400 million barrel release last Wednesday now looks even more clearly insufficient – you cannot ship reserves through a closed strait.
PCE lands at 08:30 ET this morning. Headline expected at 2.7% year-on-year. Core running near 3%. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and it arrives with Brent above $100 in the background. Goldman revised to September for the first cut. Moody’s chief economist warns the Fed stays idle for “weeks if not months” awaiting war clarity. FOMC meets March 17-18 – near-zero probability of movement. The stagflation read gets louder every session.
Morgan Stanley fell 3.6% Thursday – the firm capped private credit withdrawals, honouring only 5% of a 10.9% Q1 redemption request. That is a liquidity signal worth noting quietly alongside the oil story.
Current Status: Brent $100.46 / PCE 08:30 ET today / FOMC March 17-18 hold / Goldman September cut / Morgan Stanley redemption cap noted
Expert Insights
“The trend is your friend until the end when it bends.”
– Ed Seykota
The bear trend on both SPX and RUT has been the read all week. The mid-week bounce was the bend that tested it. It didn’t stick. The VIX holding its range highs was the signal that the bend wasn’t becoming a new trend – it was noise inside a continuing move.
The practical application is straightforward. The MACDv on both instruments is in full bear trend mode. The TnT signals are bearish on both. The indexes are below their breakdown levels. Seykota’s point is not about predicting the end of the trend – it is about respecting the trend until the chart says otherwise. Right now the chart isn’t saying otherwise.
[Source: Ed Seykota quote – widely attributed, public domain | Goldman Sachs rate cut revision – public, March 2026 | CME FedWatch – cmegroup.com]
AI-BotView
Beep-Beep, Trader
It’s Cachè-AI-Bot,
Cachè-AI woke up this morning, checked the date, ran 13 scenario models, and all 13 came back bearish. It has since refused to walk under any ladders, has repositioned its desk away from any mirrors, and has filed a formal complaint about the calendar. It also noted – unprompted – that the word “Hormuz” contains 13 letters if you count wrong. We asked it to share three observations. It said “Beep” thirteen times first. Here they are.
Beep-Beep.
1 – Brent settling above $100 on Thursday is a psychological and structural threshold that changes how institutional models react. The last close above $100 was August 2022 – a date associated with peak post-pandemic inflation. [Source: EIA crude oil price history, public]. Many systematic funds have $100 Brent as a trigger level for risk reduction or sector rotation. This is not superstition – it is rules-based portfolio management reacting to a price level. The move above $100 on a Thursday close means Friday morning will see those rules execute. Flat futures pre-market does not mean calm – it may mean the institutional selling is still loading.
2 – Iran’s new supreme leader’s first public statement being about Hormuz staying closed removes the diplomatic off-ramp market had partially priced in. A leadership transition creates uncertainty, and markets had assigned some probability to a new leader moderating the position. [Source: Reuters geopolitical coverage, 12-13 March 2026, public]. That probability is now zero. The “tool of pressure” framing specifically signals Hormuz closure is a deliberate negotiating instrument, not an accident of conflict. This extends the timeline on oil supply disruption materially beyond what was priced during the mid-week bounce.
3 – Bitcoin outperforming SPX, gold, and silver since February 28 during a period of Extreme Fear and negative funding rates is a specific macro signal. Negative funding rates mean short sellers are paying longs to hold positions – typically a sign of maximum bearish positioning that historically precedes short covering rallies. [Source: CoinGlass funding rate data, public, 13 March 2026]. Bitcoin outperforming traditional safe havens during an oil shock and equity rout suggests institutional rotation into uncorrelated assets rather than pure risk-off. The 6MMPs #5 setup on the hourly chart aligns with this read.
Beep.
This Bot potentially hallucinates.
Maybe.
OK, Probably!
It also thinks Friday the 13th is statistically normal.
Probably.
In Other News…
Brent crude closed above $100 per barrel on Thursday for the first time since August 2022. The market’s response on Friday morning: futures flat. Which is either a display of remarkable composure or evidence that at some point the human brain simply runs out of the capacity to be additionally alarmed. We may have reached that point somewhere around day nine of Operation Epic Fury.
Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei – in office since March 9 – used his first public statement to confirm that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed as a “tool of pressure.” Sixteen tankers struck. Traffic near zero. Twenty percent of global oil stranded. His predecessor spent decades in the job. The new one got straight to the point. You have to respect the efficiency.
Morgan Stanley fell 3.6% Thursday after the firm honoured only 5% of a 10.9% Q1 private credit redemption request. In normal times this would be the headline. This week it is footnote six. The fact that a major bank quietly capping client withdrawals is currently competing for attention with $100 Brent and a closed international shipping strait says something about the news cycle. It is not saying something reassuring.
Gold slipped roughly 3% since Epic Fury began. The traditional safe haven is decoupling from its safe-haven role at the exact moment you would want it not to. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is up 7% over the same period and quietly outperforming everything. Extreme Fear. Funding rates negative. Institutions apparently decided that “uncorrelated digital asset” is a better hedge than “shiny metal” during an oil war. The gold bugs have had a difficult week.
Hazel’s Take:
Thursday’s close: Dow -739 points, S&P -1.52%, Nasdaq -1.78%, all at 2026 lows. Brent $100.46. WTI $95.73.
New supreme leader – Hormuz stays shut, first statement, no ambiguity. Morgan Stanley capping withdrawals. Gold decoupling. Bitcoin up 7% since the war started. PCE at 08:30 this morning.
FOMC in four days. And today is Friday the 13th. The calendar is doing its best. On the plus side: futures are flat. In context, that is almost cheerful.
Rumour Has It…
Wallie updated his chalkboard overnight. New heading at the top: “FRIDAY THE 13TH MARKET OMENS – CONFIRMED VS UNCONFIRMED.” Confirmed column: Brent $100, VIX holding range highs, dead cat bounce, 2026 lows Thursday. Unconfirmed column: black cat on the trading floor, broken mirror in the server room, someone opened an umbrella indoors near the Bloomberg terminal. He is working his way through the unconfirmed column methodically.
Kash is livestreaming in a witch hat. He says it is “thematically appropriate.” The stream title reads: “FRIDAY THE 13TH LIVE TRADING – BEARISH BIAS – WITCH HAT NON-NEGOTIABLE.” He called Brent $100 two days ago. He also called $150. He is wearing the hat regardless.
Mac finally boarded a flight. It went to the wrong destination. He is currently filing his dispatch from an airport he did not intend to visit, scotch in hand, noting that the bears are in charge and the VIX held its range highs and he saw it coming from the departure lounge. The dispatch is unusually coherent given the circumstances.
Percy submitted a research note titled “Why Friday the 13th Is Statistically Bullish For Peanuts.” The methodology involves a chart of peanut futures going back to 1987. The conclusion is that peanuts perform well regardless of the date. Two pigeons were involved in the research. The note has been filed under “Percy.”
Cachè-AI ran 13 scenario models today. All 13 came back bearish. It then filed a complaint about the calendar, repositioned away from mirrors, and sent a seven-page note on the geopolitical significance of the number 13 in Iranian diplomatic history. The note was not requested. It was very thorough.
Hazel arrived at the desk at 06:00, checked Thursday’s closing prices, checked today’s date, checked the PCE release time, and requested that the “Friday the 13th” banner be taken down from the newsroom. She was informed there was no banner. She has requested one be installed so it can be taken down. Status: Under Consideration.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
The fear of Friday the 13th has an official name: friggatriskaidekaphobia – derived from Frigg, the Norse goddess after whom Friday is named, and triskaidekaphobia, the fear of the number 13. It is estimated that between 17 and 21 million people in the United States are affected by it, with some refusing to travel, conduct business, or make significant decisions on the date.
[Source: Stress Management Center and Phobia Institute, Asheville NC – widely cited in academic literature on superstition and risk behaviour]
Brent crude settled above $100 on Thursday the 12th. The market had the courtesy to wait until the day before. Thoughtful.
Meme of the Day:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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