My Bear’gasm Lasted the Morning. Again.

The market has confirmed it remains fully committed to both directions.

My bear’gasm lasted the morning again and once again we are being spun around like a record baby right round, and I’m getting so dizzy my head is spinning.

And with NFP today, or more likely as you are reading this has already happened, we could be spun around yet again.

Weekend position: long 1 espresso martini, defined risk, expires on the dance floor.

I plan to take my weekend early and enjoy what was, despite the frustrations, an excellent month of trading through September, an espresso martini may be involved while I enjoy some dancing with Mrs N and friends.

Right then, let’s get into the charts.

Market Snapshot

The overnight numbers.

• ES (S&P 500 futures): 7,758.75, +33.75 (+0.44%)
• NazQuack: 31,004.75
• Uncle Dow: 51,483, +249 (+0.49%)
• Uncle Russ: 2,844.4, +14.6 (+0.52%)
• Gold: 4,214.3, +6.5 (+0.15%)
• VIX: 15.99, -0.39 (-2.38%)
• Crude Oil: 89.61, -3.30 (-3.55%). More below.
• BTC: 86,325.34. More below.

SPX – 2 of the 6 money making patterns.

Over on SPX the system is bullish and I’ve again turned it off so we can see the patterns more clearly, this is also highlighting why I’ll leave past analysis on the charts, especially if we have horizontal support and resistance levels as we do here.

Price is now just back inside the range at the close of yesterday, overnight we are up 40 or so points in the premarket and around mid morning UK hours for reference, which takes us from the range lows to the range highs, back to another assessment level.

So if we stay inside the range, we move from the highs back to the lows and then there is the breakout assessment to consider, 2 of the 6 money making patterns, to and from the range boundaries and breakouts.

Back to another assessment level.

NFP – Fireworks or sput sput fizz.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will light the blue touch paper at 8:30 and retire to a safe distance.

NFP could be fireworks or sput sput fizz.

From the calendar:

• The forecast is 89K against last month’s 162K. Unemployment is expected to hold at 4.1% and average hourly earnings at 0.3%.
• 162K was one of the stronger prints of the year, so the forecast is already expecting a step back down.
• The bars have been shrinking since 2022, and 3 prints have gone negative since late 2025.

Crude Oil – We just get paid quicker if they do happen.

Crude oil continues to develop nicely, the options trades don’t need the directional moves, we just get paid quicker if they do happen.

A first profit has been locked in on the options trades and as price action evolved we can see an interesting expanding volatility triangle developing.

For it to continue to develop price would need to pause and turn at this level, otherwise we are assessing for a breakout below around $88.50.

A first profit locked in, and an expanding volatility triangle developing.

BTC – The bull resumes bulling.

Bitcoin has arrived at the door holding a bottle, having heard there was dancing.

BTC is breaking up and out and looking like it wants to join this party, the bull resumes bulling and should it hold good the next move is toward $91,000 for target 2 we previously noted.

Should it hold good, target 2 is next.

Premium Poppers – I salute you!

And despite the day, the Premium Poppers were popping, for myself 1 win 1 loss and a small partial profit tent.

Several of you also landed a profit tent on the risk free butterfly and DM’ed me, so well done you nameless profit army and those brave few profit warriors who publicly announced things.

Well done, I salute you!

The Wall of Wins

• Bill S.: “well, got in early today; made my 50% on the SPX”
• Don E.: “Same here with SPX BO1 win today.”
• James D.: “SPX BO1 win today”
• ehvpsd: “SPX bit me today, I couldn’t manage it, but the bracket order saved me from a big loss. See what tomorrow brings.”
• James D.: “As others have said aggravating market! Had a win on SPX with the PP, but a loss on RUT with the same :-(“

My reply to the room:

Mixed for me too, one transformer one loss on both SPX and RUT and a small partial profit tent takes the edge off the day.

Otherwise the week has been very good, so remember to look at the week or the month or the quarter as one day or trade doesn’t make the system what it is.

September as a whole was most excellent.