Peace Lasted 24 Hours. Iran Demanded Reparations. The Tape Gave Back 313 Dow Points And Kept The Bigger Bid.
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
I’m doing this very early for Friday on Thursday evening as I am travelling on Friday for a few days break and a long weekend.
Despite the pre-market push higher on Thursday, the intraday move flipped over and ended bearish.
SPX has been doing this all the way up its monumental rally through April. Push higher, MACD-V extreme reading, tiny corrective move with no lower Bollinger Band touch, and then woosh – another push higher.
RUT is also doing something very similar although the system has flipped to bearish. We are close to the lower BB there, so a new setup could well develop.
The big question is how long will this pattern continue?
NFP could well set the markets off in either direction, and it is really hard not to look at any of the equity indexes and shake your head at the unprecedented straight line movements.
There could well be a little more down movement overnight before NFP gazumps the week.
In the wider world, the peace trade got audited yesterday. Iranian official Mohsen Rezaei told PressTV that Washington must “pay reparations” before Tehran considers the 14-point framework. Markets had priced peace before peace existed. Markets unpriced it within hours, and the bid did not return. Every sector closed red. Energy worst at -1.95%. The Dow lost 313 points.
ADP printed +109K yesterday, the strongest private-sector reading since January 2025. NFP consensus sits in a wide band of $75K to $120K given the data delays earlier this year. Gold ripped to $4,754.50. Silver +6.17% to $82.07. The Senate votes on Warsh next Tuesday.
Pattern Continues. Question Is How Long. NFP Gazumps The Week. Phil Away.
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Market Briefing:
Friday 8 May. (Phil away for long weekend break)
- Iran reparations demand reversed the peace trade priced Wednesday / WTI $94.81 / Brent $100.06 (off lows after the reparations reversal)
- ADP +109K strongest since Jan 2025 / NFP today consensus wide band $75K-$120K (data delays earlier this year)
- Gold $4,754.50 fresh high / Silver +6.17% to $82.07 / 10Y 4.35% / DXY firm / VIX 17.07 (-1.90%)
- Earnings: ABNB +18% revenue / SQ +19% gross profit / EXPE +15% revenue / COIN missed Q1 / ANET -13.61% AH despite beat
- Senate Warsh confirmation vote next Tuesday 11 May
Market Snapshot
- ES: 7,369.25 / -0.24% / off NATH 7,410.50
- YM: 49,748 / -0.55% / Dow gave back Wednesday’s gain
- NQ: 28,711.75 / -0.00% / NATH 28,814.50 still in play
- RTY: 2,854.0 / -1.31% / heaviest pull-back of the four
- GC: 4,723.7 / +0.44% / fresh high yesterday at $4,754.50
- CL: 96.18 / -0.03% / Brent ~$100 holding
- VIX: 17.07 / -1.90% / contained
- BTC: 80,090 / -1.65% / range still in place
Tag ‘n Turn
SPX: Bullish swing intact. Same six-week pattern continues. Push higher / MACD-V extreme / tiny correction / no lower BB tag / woosh higher.
RUT: System flipped bearish. Close to lower BB. New setup could develop.
The pattern has repeated for six weeks now. Push higher, MACD-V extreme, tiny corrective move without a lower Bollinger Band tag, then another push higher. Yesterday’s intraday flip-to-bearish is the next “tiny correction” candidate, or the start of something different.
RUT has flipped bearish on the system and is close to the lower BB. That is the chart that could give a fresh setup if the lower BB tag delivers an entry.
NFP at 8:30 will move what it moves. Phil’s read: there could well be a little more down movement overnight before NFP gazumps the week.
SPX Analysis
Bullish (Flipped) above 7,267.09. NATHs 7,385.02 cleared, settled back to 7,337.10. Bearish TnT printed but immediately PFZ Flipped back. Pattern continues.
The intraday flip-to-bearish on Thursday is the latest correction within the six-week pattern. Bearish TnT signals printed twice this week and both immediately PFZ-flipped back to bullish. The MACD-V history shows the same setup: extreme bullish reading, brief consolidation, no lower BB tag, then continuation.
Bull thesis remains outside the range. Bear thesis remains inside the range. Price is outside the range and bullish, with the swing intact despite Thursday’s intraday flip.
The question Phil flagged: how long does this continue. The answer is the chart will tell us. NFP today is the most plausible exogenous catalyst to break the pattern.
Current Status: Bullish (Flipped) above 7,267.09 / PFZ Level 7,231.3 / Target Pending / NATHs 7,385.02 / pattern intact
Gamma Exposure
7,300-7,400 range continues. 7,350 dominant. 7,400 secondary spike. Call wall 7,400. NFP is the only catalyst with magnitude to break the dealer mechanics.
GEX from Thursday’s close shows the 7,300-7,400 range development continues. 7,350 sits as the dominant node. 7,400 as secondary spike and call wall.
A break above 7,400 opens 7,450 next. A break below 7,300 reopens 7,250-7,200 below.
Put wall 7,000. Gamma flip 7,176.95. IV 14.42% / IVP 55% / IV Rank 24.00% / HV 14.28%. Vol contained heading into NFP.
RUT Analysis
Bearish Below (Flipped) 2,835.72. PFZ flipped to bearish. Near lower BB. New setup could develop.
RUT flipped bearish on the system after Thursday’s session. PFZ Flip visible. Bearish TnT printed.
Phil’s read: close to the lower BB, so a new setup could well develop if the tag arrives.
Bull thesis remains outside the range. Bear thesis remains inside the range. The bearish flip is the first time RUT has diverged from SPX directional read this week.
Current Status: Bearish Below (Flipped) 2,835.72 / PFZ Level 2,842.97 / Target Pending / NATHs 2,888.61 / lower BB tag setup developing
Rounding Off
The peace trade audited. Iranian official Mohsen Rezaei said Washington must “pay reparations” before Tehran considers the 14-point framework. Markets unpriced peace within hours. Every sector closed red. Energy worst at -1.95%. The Dow gave back 313 points. Wednesday’s catalyst became Thursday’s reversal.
ADP and NFP. ADP +109K yesterday, the strongest private-sector reading since January 2025. NFP today in a wide consensus band of $75K to $120K given the 2025 government shutdown delays. The data decides whether the rally rebuilds or whether yesterday’s reset has further to run.
Earnings. Airbnb +18% revenue. Block +19% gross profit. Expedia +15% revenue. Coinbase missed on the Q1 crypto drawdown. Arista -13.61% AH despite beating on top and bottom lines.
Metals. Gold $4,754.50 fresh high. Silver +6.17% to $82.07. Safe-haven bid extending while the equity tape pulls back.
Senate. Warsh confirmation vote next Tuesday 11 May. Powell holds the gavel for one more meeting.
Current Status: SPX bullish swing intact / RUT flipped bearish near lower BB / pattern question live / NFP the binary / Phil away
Expert Insights
“It is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.”
— Warren Buffett
The six-week pattern has produced fresh ATHs on the leading indices and a Mag 7 split where some names have walked the room and others have paid the AI bill. The leadership is concentrated. The breadth is not.
NFP today decides whether the macro joins the equity rally or contradicts it. ADP at +109K is the leading edge. The wide $75K-$120K consensus band reflects the data delays from the 2025 shutdown rather than genuine uncertainty about the underlying labour market.
The discipline today is reduced size into the print, recognition that Phil’s “how long does this continue” question is the right one, and acceptance that the pattern eventually breaks regardless of how it has run.
[Source: Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letters |
BLS NFP release schedule, public |
ADP National Employment Report, public]
Fun Fact:
The SPX six-week run from late March 2026 has produced the same internal pattern in each leg: a push to fresh highs accompanied by MACD-V extreme readings, followed by a tiny corrective move that does not reach the lower Bollinger Band, followed by a continuation push.
Pattern recurrence data shows that compression-then-extension sequences without lower BB touches across 6+ consecutive legs occur in fewer than 5% of post-2010 trending sequences and historically resolve with either a single dramatic break-of-pattern session (typically catalysed by exogenous data) or a sustained extension of the pattern over the following 4-8 weeks.
[Source: Antivestor pattern data, proprietary | Standard Bollinger Band trending pattern literature, public]
Today’s NFP is the most plausible exogenous catalyst to either break the pattern or extend it.
Meme of the Day:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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