Records, records, records. Then the print at 8:30.

Stock Market Edge

Records Without Witnesses, Hope Without Data The tape held its breath. Two-thirds of stocks held it for the room.

1. Premarket snapshot: S&P 500 futures held tight ranges into the CPI print, which is what futures do when they cannot decide what to believe. Monday’s cash close at 7,412.84 was an all-time high reached with 37.8% of US issues advancing. The breadth, charitably, did not participate. Nasdaq and Russell joined the records out of professional courtesy.
2. Sector rotation: Memory and semiconductors carried the bid. The Roundhill Memory ETF jumped nearly 30% in five sessions. Micron rose over 15% on HBM AI orders. Energy joined, somewhat awkwardly, on the same oil spike that is about to print in CPI tomorrow. Real Estate and rate-sensitives politely lagged.
3. Earnings or guidance: Cisco reports Wednesday with revenue near $14 billion and EPS around $0.92, the cleanest read on enterprise AI capex this week. Alibaba reports the same day. Applied Materials prints Thursday with options pricing an 8.7% move. The week was already busy without inflation.
4. Cross-asset nuance: Treasury yields drifted firmer into the print as the curve priced what the equity tape would not. Dollar held bid. Gold near $4,671. The setup is a contradiction in two parts: stocks at records, every input pointing the other way. The chart, having considered the facts, ignored them.

---

📊 There’s a level on SPX I’m watching closely this morning. My full analysis briefing has it – plus what happens if we hold it, and what happens if we don’t. [Read it here →]

---

Crypto Market Edge

Bitcoin Tagged $82,026, Then Politely Returned to Wait ETFs bought the rally. Leverage stayed in bed.

1. Price snapshot: Bitcoin briefly hit $82,026 in Asia hours before retreating above $81,000, a price action best described as cautiously celebratory. Ethereum near $2,339. Solana led the alts on the week at $97.43. Dogecoin outpaced Bitcoin on the seven-day. Dominance held 58%, which is to say, alts rotated as nature intended.
2. Flows & positioning: Spot ETFs captured $700 million day-ahead. Last week’s net inflows hit $933 million, the fourth consecutive positive week. CoinShares tracked $1.2 billion across all digital asset products. Funding rates remain flat. Leverage, having been burned at this exact level twice, declined to volunteer.
3. Leadership & rotation: Solana and Dogecoin outpaced Bitcoin on the week as capital walked down the cap stack. BlackRock’s IBIT held $66.9 billion in AUM, roughly 66% of the entire US spot Bitcoin ETF market. The vehicle people complained about in 2024 now defines the cycle.
4. Catalysts & roadmap: Senate Banking unveiled the Clarity Act market structure bill before its hearing, which is the regulatory equivalent of arriving on time. Trump-Xi summit lands in China this week. CPI at 8:30 and Warsh swearing-in Friday frame the rest of the trade. The week wrote itself.

---

TL;DR – The Bottom Line

• Futures held tight pre-CPI ranges overnight. S&P closed 7,412.84 Monday on 37.8% breadth. The other 62% of stocks have questions for the print at 8:30 ET.
• Wells Fargo models CPI at 3.8%, the hottest since 2023. Six-week win streak meets the data that justified none of it. Markets prefer not to look.
• Bitcoin tagged $82,026 in Asia hours, returned politely to wait. Spot ETFs caught $700 million day-ahead. Funding flat. The leveraged longs are quietly reading a book.
• Brent holds $104. WTI $99. Aramco’s chief executive says the market is losing 100 million barrels weekly. Trump called Iran’s peace offer totally unacceptable Sunday night.
• Warsh sworn in Friday inherits Services Prices at a four-year high. BofA pushed its first rate cut forecast to H2 2027. Crypto-friendly nominee, stagflation-friendly job description.

---

📌 Fun Fact

Kevin Warsh has been here before. The youngest Fed Governor in modern history returns to the building Friday.

Warsh was 35 when George W. Bush appointed him to the Federal Reserve Board in February 2006, the youngest member in the Board’s modern history.

He resigned in 2011 explicitly over disagreement with the second round of quantitative easing he had warned against. The chair he assumes Friday is his second tour through the lobby.