Uncle Russ Screams Wait For Me. Sleepy Uncle Dow Naps In The Rocking Chair.
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Well I am officially back in Blighty. Again. This time a short trip to see the historic city of York, one of the UK’s most haunted and historic places.
SPX and NazQuack continue to see what Mars looks like, while Uncle Russell screams wait for me. Sleepy Uncle Dow is enjoying a nap in the rocking chair.
Over on the swing setup, we can see price is simply chugging along nicely. We are seeing the MACD-V look divergent and we are now out of the continuation threat window with the MACD-V extreme. There is also a significant reduction in momentum as seen in the histogram.
Maybe it is time we do indeed see a small corrective move. Stop laughing. It is possible.
RUT is behaving a little more normally back and forth and now showing a new fresh bear Tag ‘n Turn setup.
I’m back at the desk proper, so just looking to get the swings rolling and I’ll ease myself back into the new week a little slowly.
In the wider world: CPI at 8:30 ET. Consensus 3.7%. Cleveland Fed nowcast 3.56%. Wells Fargo 3.8%. Whichever way it prints, hottest read since 2023. Trump called Iran’s latest peace offer “totally unacceptable” Sunday night. Warsh sworn in Friday and inherits stagflation. Markets, on the whole, prefer not to think about it.
Mars-Bound. MACD-V Divergent. Histogram Shrinking. RUT Bear TnT Live. CPI At 8:30.
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Market Briefing:
Tuesday 12 May. (Phil back from York. Easing in.)
- Monday cash: SPX 7,412.84 ATH on 37.8% breadth / NazQuack 26,274 / RTY 2,868 cleared “out of politeness” / Dow flat
- Tuesday pre-market: ES 7,411.50 (-0.32%) just under Monday’s NATH 7,454.75 / NQ 29,223 (-0.60%) / RTY 2,870 (-0.32%) NATHs 2,918.4 above / YM 49,739 (-0.14%)
- 30-minute SPX: Bullish (Flipped) above 7,267.09 / NATHs 7,428.97 / MACD-V divergent vs price / histogram momentum noticeably reduced / out of continuation threat window
- 30-minute RUT: fresh Bearish Below 2,881.69 / PFZ 2,888.21 / Target 2,825.30 / Bearish TnT just printed
- CPI 8:30: consensus 3.7% / Cleveland Fed nowcast 3.56% / Wells Fargo 3.8%
- Brent $104 / WTI ~$99 / Hormuz remains shut / Aramco CEO: market losing 100M barrels per week
- Trump: Iran peace offer “totally unacceptable” / ceasefire on “massive life support”
- Warsh sworn in Friday / inherits stagflation
- Memory/semis: Roundhill Memory ETF +30% in 5 sessions / Micron +15% on HBM AI orders
- This week earnings: Cisco Wednesday (~$14B rev, $0.92 EPS) / Alibaba Wednesday / Applied Materials Thursday (8.7% options-implied move)
- 10Y firmer into print / Gold $4,710.50 / DXY bid
- GEX: 7,400 dominant anchor / 7,500 secondary spike / Call wall 7,400 / Put wall 7,000 / IV 15.26% / IVP 70%
Market Snapshot
- ES: 7,411.50 / -0.32% / under Monday NATH 7,454.75
- YM: 49,739 / -0.14% / Uncle Dow napping
- NQ: 29,223 / -0.60% / pre-CPI giveback
- RTY: 2,870 / -0.32% / NATHs 2,918.4 above
- GC: 4,710.50 / -0.74% / off recent fresh high
- CL: 101.12 / +2.92% / Aramco math
- VIX: 18.91 / +2.94% / firming into print
- BTC: 80,778 / -1.16% / range still in place
Tag ‘n Turn
SPX: Bullish swing intact. MACD-V divergent. Histogram momentum reducing. Out of continuation threat window. Small corrective move possible.
RUT: Fresh bear Tag ‘n Turn just printed. Bearish Below 2,881.69. Target 2,825.30.
The SPX bullish swing is still on but the MACD-V is now divergent and the histogram has lost meaningful momentum. We are out of the continuation threat window. Conditions for a small corrective move are now present. Stop laughing.
RUT is the cleaner setup today. Fresh bear TnT just printed with PFZ Flip and target at 2,825.30. First proper directional setup of the week.
CPI at 8:30 is the binary that decides whether either move runs.
SPX Analysis
Bullish (Flipped) above 7,267.09. NATHs 7,428.97 at the upper boundary. MACD-V divergent from price. Histogram shrinking. Out of continuation threat window.
The bullish swing is intact and the chart has continued to push higher off the 7,267 flip. The Bullish (Flipped) status sits above 7,267.09 with PFZ Level at 7,231.3.
The internal read has changed though. MACD-V is now showing divergence against the new highs. The histogram bars have noticeably shrunk versus the previous extreme. We are out of the continuation threat window. The structural support for the past six-weeks “push-extreme-tiny-woosh” pattern is loosening.
A small corrective move is now genuinely on the table for the first time in weeks.
Current Status: Bullish (Flipped) above 7,267.09 / PFZ 7,231.3 / Target Pending / NATHs 7,428.97 / MACD-V divergent / histogram shrinking
Gamma Exposure
7,400 dominant anchor. 7,500 secondary spike. Range development 7,400-7,500. Call wall 7,400.
The GEX field has migrated up again. 7,400 is now the dominant gamma node and the call wall. 7,500 is the next major spike above. The 7,300-7,400 range from last week has resolved upward.
Put wall 7,000. Gamma flip 6,598.04. IV 15.26% / IVP 70% / IV Rank 29.32% / HV 12.60%. IV firming into CPI as expected.
RUT Analysis
Bearish Below 2,881.69. Bearish TnT just printed. PFZ 2,888.21. Target 2,825.30. First proper directional setup in days.
RUT is behaving normally again — back-and-forth chop rather than the relentless straight line of SPX. The chart has printed a fresh Bearish TnT and the system has developed anew bear swing setup, bearish below 2,881.69.
PFZ Level sits at 2,888.21 just above. Target 2,825.30 below. This is the first setup in days that does not need permission from the broader index.
Current Status: Bearish Below 2,881.69 / PFZ 2,888.21 / Target 2,825.30 / NATHs 2,888.61
Rounding Off
The CPI binary. Wall Street consensus 3.7%. Wells Fargo 3.8%. Cleveland Fed nowcast 3.56%. Whichever prints, hottest read since 2023, and the room has spent six weeks pricing the opposite. The tape held its breath into the 8:30 print.
Hormuz still shut. Aramco’s CEO observed the market is losing 100 million barrels each week. Brent $104. WTI $99. Trump called Iran’s latest peace offer “totally unacceptable” Sunday night. Ceasefire on “massive life support.”
Memory and semis carry the bid. Roundhill Memory ETF +30% in five sessions. Micron +15% on HBM AI orders. Memory is the leadership concentration story this week, the way the AMD/SMCI/Corning cluster was last week.
Warsh Friday. Sworn in and inherits stagflation. The Senate vote earlier this week confirmed the path. Powell holds the gavel for one more meeting.
The week. Cisco and Alibaba report Wednesday. Applied Materials Thursday with options pricing an 8.7% implied move. Already busy before the data prints.
Current Status: CPI 8:30 the binary / SPX MACD-V divergent / RUT fresh bear TnT / oil firm / Warsh Friday / Phil back, easing in
Expert Insights
“In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.”
— Robert Arnott
Records on 37.8% breadth. Two-thirds of stocks sat the high out. The MACD-V is divergent. The histogram is shrinking. The CPI consensus is the hottest since 2023. Every input points the other way and the chart, having considered the facts, has ignored them.
The comfortable trade today is to ride what is working. The uncomfortable trade is to size the fresh RUT bear setup and accept that the SPX bullish swing may also turn at the same time. Phil’s “small corrective move is possible” framing is the discipline.
Ease in slowly. Trade the setups. Let CPI move what it moves.
[Source: Robert Arnott, Research Affiliates public commentary |
BLS CPI release schedule, public |
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Nowcasting, public]
Percy and The NutBot Report
(Peanut-Powered Analysis)
Percy has fed the MACD-V divergence on SPX, the fresh RUT bear TnT, and the CPI consensus spread into NutBot-AI. The tablet emitted a Beep-Beep. Two sourced points came back accurate. Percy has described today as “a divergentitude of the histogram,” which is not a phrase. Hazel mouthed “histogrammar” without looking up. Percy did not hear her.
Beep-Beep. (repeated by Percy)
1 – The simultaneous MACD-V divergence from price and visible histogram momentum reduction on SPX 30-minute, after a six-week run of “push-extreme-tiny-correction-woosh” sequences without lower Bollinger Band tags, represents the first internal structural change to the pattern since late March 2026. [Source: Antivestor TnT and MACD-V system data, proprietary]. Divergence-plus-histogram-shrinkage configurations following sustained trending sequences historically resolve in one of two ways within 5 sessions: a sharp counter-trend correction reaching the lower BB, or a sideways consolidation that resets the momentum reading before continuation. The pattern’s defining feature — absence of lower BB touches — is now mathematically more difficult to maintain.
2 – The RUT fresh Bearish Below signal at 2,881.69 with target 2,825.30 represents the first directional setup in approximately five sessions that has triggered without immediately PFZ-flipping back to the opposite side, suggesting the back-and-forth normality returning to RUT is materially different from the SPX continuation regime. [Source: Antivestor TnT system data, proprietary | RUT 30-minute price action, 8-12 May 2026]. The asymmetric implication is that RUT and SPX may now decouple directionally for the first time this month, with RUT providing trade-able setups whilst SPX continues to compress into the divergence. Today’s CPI at 8:30 ET is the most plausible exogenous catalyst to either confirm the decoupling or pull both back into correlation.
Beep. (Percy nods as though he follows. Hazel does not look up.)
This Bot potentially hallucinates. Maybe. OK, Probably! Approved by the pigeon quorum in two seconds. Eleven consecutive. Mac asks what the quorum’s standing actually is. Percy says “constitutional.” Mac asks who ratified the constitution. Percy says “the quorum.” Mac writes this down.
In Other News…
The room held its breath. 37.8% of stocks held it for the room.
Monday’s all-time high closed at 7,412.84 with two-thirds of US issues sitting it out. Records achieved by professional courtesy. The Nasdaq joined. The Russell cleared 2,868.58 “mostly out of politeness.” The Dow napped through the ceremony.
At 8:30 ET, April CPI. Hottest read since 2023 whichever model prints. The room has spent six weeks pricing the opposite. The tape, having considered the print, has decided to peak first.
Oil decided to participate. Brent $104. WTI near $99. Aramco’s CEO explained gravity to a politician: the market is losing 100 million barrels each week. The Strait of Hormuz remains shut. The president called the latest peace offer “totally unacceptable.” Ceasefire on “massive life support.”
Memory ETFs +30% in five sessions. Micron +15% on HBM AI orders. The new cluster leadership is in storage, not compute. Cisco and Alibaba Wednesday. Applied Materials Thursday with options pricing an 8.7% move.
Kevin Warsh sworn in Friday. Inherits stagflation. Markets prefer not to think about it.
Phil is back from York. Easing in. SPX MACD-V divergent for the first time in six weeks. RUT printed a fresh bear TnT. Maybe a small corrective move is possible. Stop laughing.
Hazel’s Take:
SPX 7,412.84 Monday ATH on 37.8% breadth, MACD-V now divergent
RUT printed fresh bear TnT, Bearish Below 2,881.69, target 2,825.30
CPI 8:30 consensus 3.7%, Cleveland Fed 3.56%, Wells Fargo 3.8%
Hormuz shut, Brent $104, Aramco: 100M barrels lost weekly
Warsh sworn in Friday, inherits stagflation
Phil back from York. Composure day 67.
Rumour Has It…
Hazel at the anchor desk, calendar open. Day 67. Three cups of coffee in descending order. The two smaller cups are empty for the first time in a week. “Tape will tell us at 8:30,” she says without looking up. “Until then, the chart’s pretending it can’t read.”
Wallie at the chalkboard, considering. He writes “SPX: ATH” and stops. He looks at Kash. Kash shrugs. He underlines it once. He writes “BREADTH: 37.8%” and circles it twice. “That’s not an underline,” Hazel says. “That’s editorial.” Wallie writes “EDITORIAL” beneath it and underlines THAT three times.
Kash at the streaming desk, standing. Five timers today, having retired “BB Compress Duration” because it resolved last week and he has not had a chance to remove it. Pattern Streak Counter at week 6 with a small asterisk reading “DIVERGENCE NOTED.” Stream title: “Tuesday / Phil back / SPX MACDV divergent / RUT fresh bear TnT / CPI 8:30.”
Mac on location. Notebook open. Page heading: “PERCY ASKED WHO RATIFIED THE CONSTITUTION.” Margin scribble: “The quorum did. The quorum ratified itself.” Mac considers this. He writes: “Self-ratifying body. Not a thing.” Underlines NOT.
Off the side of his desk, eleventh time of asking, Hazel asks Mac where the return flight is to.
Mac, without looking up: “Croydon.”
The newsroom goes quiet. Hazel slowly puts her coffee cup down. Wallie’s chalk stops mid-air. Kash looks at the camera, then back at Mac. Percy’s tablet beeps.
“Croydon,” Mac repeats. “It’s been Croydon the whole time.”
A new whiteboard appears in the corner. Kash has written on it: “WHAT IS PERCY EVEN COUNTING?” Underneath: “Pages of risk assessment / Beeps per hour / Pigeons in attendance / All of these / We do not know.” Hazel adds a line: “Suggestions welcome.” Wallie underlines WELCOME.
Percy in the centre of the room. NutBot mode. The tablet is processing. He has not noticed Mac’s reveal. The pigeon quorum has just ratified a new motion. Percy has declared eleven consecutive two-second approvals to be “legal personhood for the quorum.” Hazel mouths “legal personhood” at Wallie. Wallie writes “LEGAL PERSONHOOD” on the board and applies no underlines, considered, applied without.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
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Meme of the Day:
xxx
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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