Break And Trend, Or Break And Fake, The Inside Bar Called Both

Volatility has been withdrawn from the stock indexes. No date has been given for its return.

• ES 7,696.75, +0.29%. Lows taken first, now pushing higher.
• YM 53,618, +0.19%. High taken, see above.
• NQ 29,305.25. Same as ES.
• RTY 3,015.9, +0.35%. Took both sides.
• VIX 15.76, -0.51%. 16 still the line, still not there.
• GC 4,683.8, -0.56%. Off the new high.
• CL 83.29, -1.99%. Breaking and trending, see below.
• BTC/USD 79,876.55. New recent highs, see below.

Collect Weekly Income
Learn More

SPX – Bullish, barely, and the air has gone out of it again.

Over on the Tag n Turn swings, SPX remains bullish and not quite flipping to the bear side, which is what the failure point’s job is doing right.

Volatility is once again being sucked out of price movement and the Bollinger Bands are once again squeezing tight. The 3 day average remains around 50 points.

And I once again can’t wait for the markets to open up. Even just slightly would take the suck out of the grind.

Bullish on a technicality, and the air is going out again.

Crude Oil – The ignition switch, doing exactly what it advertised.

CL, crude oil’s chart is doing what we thought. The IB behaving like an ignition switch for the next movement.

And we are seeing the overnight moves pop and drop from the 1SD VWAP to the VWAP band.

Price movements are certainly looking a little spicy overnight.

To be clear on the call, since it ran a few days: the expectation was break and trend, as opposed to break out and fake out like BTC. Directionally we were anticipating a possible bull break, but waiting for price to actually break to get the party started.

Break and trend was the call. The direction was the market’s business.

Crypto – Broke the low, faked it, and came back in.

Crypto’s BTC providing the opportunity for me also, with the IB low breaks first and looking for that to be a fake break, which it was.

And a simple move back into the inside bar’s range. A break back into the range, just the opposite to a breakout, provides the ignition to join the party.

New recent highs are made and looking for the next moves to develop.

Could this be the start of the next big push to new all time highs? Time, as always, will tell all.

Break in, not break out, and the party started anyway.

Collect Morning Income
– Learn More

Premium Poppers – Two trades, a floor that held, and a tent that didn’t.

Yesterday’s Premium Poppers have already had their own write up, so just the short version here.

RUT gave the classic 1st breakout and locked $154 as the profit floor, with the potential for $654 in the centre of the tent. SPX ran 3 trades testing the new VWAP entries, carried a $280 worst case all day, and closed with $220. The last 10 minutes took me out of the RUT tent and secured the SPX profit in the same move.

The full breakdown, with both profit and loss curves, is here: Student Edge, 24 August 2026

• ehvpsd “Maiden voyage for me, sold the RUT 3005/3010 bear call for $1.08, closed it for .50. I’ll take it….” And later: “Singles and doubles are my jam…”
• Andy D. “Back to racking wins the past week for me after struggling with the turnaround market moves more than I should have. (self inflicted entirely) RUT 73% ROC for today. On to the Next!….”
• Duncan G. “SPX pre market bear >> butterfly >> closed for 450% of the butterfly cost. RUT at the money popper closed for 80% credit received. 4 day swing on SPX closed for 80%. I am using half my normal position size for pre market trades but they seem steadier and more predictable than the main market hours. A good day and a great and significant refinement, leap forward really, to the strategy. More a paradigm shift than an evolution in fact.”

Awesome work, all of you. And ehvpsd, nice to see you get a good win on the Wall of Wins.

Maiden voyages, 73% ROC, and a paradigm shift. Not a bad Monday.