Markets tanked, Iran talked peace, markets pumped. My bear swings are locked.
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Well, it’s official, I’m off to Arkham Asylum to admit myself and join the Joker and Harley Quinn for an insanity-induced vacation. While I’m there I’m going to speak to the Riddler to see if he can make sense of what the actual fuck is going on this year with the markets.
Despite looking at the markets now for, sheesh, 34-ish years and 26 of those full time, the frustrations that the markets throw at us still boggle my mind. Something I caught myself saying a few times last week was that it never goes away, the emotional roller coaster, what improves is your ability to deal with it.
…and the worst, or best, part is that yesterday wasn’t a losing day, we still banked some profits in the morning as usual, before lunch.
The day basically went:
Melania Trump rang the bell to open the markets.
Markets tanked, bonds pumped…
Iran to America: haha, welcome to the 1970s, now your bonds are in bits.
Markets tank…
and in a masterful whiplash gaslighting move,
Iran… let’s talk peace.
Markets pump…
The market later clarified that the morning’s direction had been provisional, and has since been withdrawn pending review.
…and then my head blew clean off my shoulders, and yet another turnaround day on fugazi.
So hello Arkham, got room for one more?
Right then, let’s get into the charts.
Market Snapshot
The indexes have reversed their reversal and deny ever having left.
The snap view is:
- S&P 500 futures 7,790.25 (+0.40%), NazQuack 30,938.25, Uncle Dow 51,863 (+0.37%), Uncle Russ 2,864.2 (+0.34%): the main indexes have turned around (again).
- VIX 15.33 (-2.23%): VIX did the peekaboo thing with 16 again.
- Gold 4,330.0 (+0.46%): Gold’s bull setup clings on to life, but barely.
- Bitcoin 84,673.98: Bitcoin. The voice of reason. Those words should never share a sentence, and yet. And, I’m gagging on my words, it seems to be the voice of sanity.
SPX – Holding on to the bear overnight.
SPX swing holds on to the bear overnight, but with the market up again overnight the flip to bullish will be developing, should that move hold.
RUT – Uncle Russ is in a similar predicament.
RUT is in a similar predicament.
Interestingly, on both I have locked in my bear swings with transformer trades, so the profit is locked, and if there is a stupid rally there may be some profit tent sniping to be had.
The profit is locked.
BTC – Doing what we think it’s going to do.
When the most volatile thing in the building is the only one behaving sensibly, it is time to inspect the building.
BTC remains my voice of sanity and is doing what we think it’s going to do, a move back above 85,000 will provide a nice add-in opportunity.
The histogram extreme noted yesterday nailed that bear retracement slowdown nicely.
The Elliott wavers might see the 3rd push or wave 5 here too, so it could be fun to take us to my Breakout Target 2.
Back above 85,000 is the add-in.
Premium Poppers & Wall of Wins – Another bag full of premium before the nonsense.
The Premium Poppers in the community certainly also nailed another bag full of premium before the nonsense, again done by lunch and the fecking 180 U-turn.
Don E.: “Closed RUT LP for 50% (I had taken SPX BO1 but got out at breakeven when price hit VWAP).”
Scott K.: “RUT BO1 (bear spread), closed at $0.3 for 65% win. Took the SPX BO1 (bull spread), but after about an hour I thought the popper didn’t really have much pop, so transformed to butterfly for exactly the same price… guaranteed loss on commissions, but bullseye target left at 7665 short strike.”
My reply to Scott: “Nice management Scott, turned out very nice, locks in a little worse than BE on comms and keeps the dream alive.”
Steve R.: “BOOM-CHAKALAKA BITCHES 🎉” (P/L Day: 4,486.00). “Helps when I press the right buttons 🙂”
James D.: “Got an SPX PP win in before that big reversal, was that due to the trash talking/announcements?” Apparently so, yes.
Well done team.
[Wall of Wins image]
Meme of the Day:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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