The 3 day ATR is around 40 points and the Bollinger Bands are pinched at their tightest contraction in 120 bars. Price is wound tight across every stock index, SPX is dinging off the upper edge of the range, and RUT is ping ponging until something gives. Inside: the swings, the crypto read, and why sideways still hits target.
...Friday’s payrolls contraction took 16 points off September pricing. Monday handed back 10 for a headline containing no news at all. We tried to work out which one the Fed is actually watching.
...Friday’s jobs contraction took 16 points off September. Monday’s shut-strait headline handed back 10. Only one of them contained a statistic, and it was not the one that won.
...Nothing weird or funky happened over the weekend. The VIX has returned to normal, almost violently, and the S&P pushed slightly higher. I’m still concerned overall, and as the first third of the month gets X’ed off the calendar, are we still setting up to meet the grim reaper in September? Or is that my fever dream paranoia kicking in? A shorter one today, because I am sick as a dog.
...July payrolls fell 23,000 and September hike pricing dropped sixteen points before lunch. The trouble is that the chairman has said the September call rests on inflation, not employment.
...July payrolls fell 23,000 and the S&P closed at a record. Sixteen points came off September hike pricing in a morning. We had spent a week arguing that could not happen.
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