Wall Street rallied 1.75% on a peace deal nobody has signed and inflation it chose not to notice, two separate acts of faith before most of us had breakfast.
Futures sit near flat into the open as SpaceX prepares to become the largest IPO ever, the same week chip stocks logged their worst single day since April 2025.
Bitcoin bounced above $63,700 on borrowed optimism, while four weeks of record ETF outflows and Strategy’s broken never-sell vow quietly disagree with the mood.
May inflation hit 4%, the hottest in three years, which leaves Warsh hired to cut rates and walking into a meeting on Tuesday where he plainly can’t.
A $1.78 trillion rocket debuts today and the peace remains unsigned, so Tuesday’s Fed gets to decide which of Thursday’s happy stories were actually true.
When you think bullish, the bear pulls you back in. The pattern in one line.
Premium Popper banked 4 out of 5 yesterday. Why intraday is loving this chop.
Closed my BTC bear swing at the 63K zone. The next setup forming underneath.
CL bear flag may be evolving. Still bearish below $97.
Futures left early as US strikes on Iran hit day two and Tehran answered at Gulf bases, because pricing peace works right up until the peace files for a second war.
May CPI hit a three-year high of 4.2%, burying the 2026 rate cut and handing Warsh a hike debate at the first meeting he was hired to spend cutting.
Oracle asked for $20 billion to build AI and the market docked it 10% for the audacity, having decided capex on faith is last season’s look.
Bitcoin round-tripped to 2024 at $62,200 as a record 13-day ETF exit and a quietly broken never-sell vow drained whatever bull case was left.
Oil rallied on the bombs and dipped on the rumour they had stopped; today asks whether dip-buyers have the stomach for a third surprise.
Tuesday’s exhaustion bar printed on framework cue. Why I’m not buying it yet.
GEX increasingly negative. ES down 80 as I type. Why the sell-off may not be done.
Bear targets hit across the board. RUT V-entry forming underneath.
Wed-Thu is the recovery window. CPI at 8:30 decides whether it opens.
May CPI lands at 8:30, seen at 4.2%, the hottest since April 2023. Warsh was hired to cut. The data appears to have other plans, in writing.
Two-year yields at 4.15%, hike odds past 70%, jobs that doubled consensus at 172,000. The economy refused to cool on schedule. Awkward for everyone involved.
Chips lost a trillion Friday, found buyers Monday, lost them Tuesday. The S&P sits coiled near flat, waiting for one number to ruin or rescue the week.
Bitcoin under $61K, ETFs down $5.4 billion in four weeks, and Strategy, the never-sell brand, sold. The believers are quietly checking the exits, one browser tab at a time.
Brent near $93 after round-tripping $98 on a ceasefire that exists mainly in press releases. Hormuz stays shut. Energy keeps writing the whole inflation story underneath.
Friday’s retracement done. Monday’s rally retracement pending. Why I’m sitting tight.
RUT V-entry at the range low. The trade I’d take. The trade I’m waiting on.
BTC’s slow-lazy rising range. Why this looks like the last bear flag.
CL punched the bear trigger. The $25 move below now possible.