A 40 point move higher overnight with the Nasdaq in lockstep, while the Dow and Russell refuse to play along and the number of stocks holding their moving averages keeps sliding. Inside: what the Almanac says about the week after triple witching, the upper band that gap should tag on SPX, why RUT is unlikely to get there, and Bitcoin’s bear finally giving up the ghost at the range highs.
...The Fed started hiking, the two-year made a 52-week high and the ten-year went back to 2007 levels. Volatility answered by closing at 14.81. We try to work out which market is asleep.
...Two days into a hiking cycle, with the two-year at a 52-week high and the ten-year back at 2007 levels, volatility closed at 14.81. Someone is wrong, and it is not the bond market.
...The Fed delivered its first hike since 2023 on a unanimous vote. By the next close the two-year sat exactly where it started, the ten-year lower, and Saudi tankers had done the only real tightening.
...A packed press room before a Fed announcement with every journalist leaning towards an empty podium, while Mr SPX sits in the second row buttering toast on a folding tray table with the black cat beside him watching the podium attentively.
...The Fed raises rates today, a day after the Treasury’s 20-year sale drew a record-low foreign share. We try to work out which problem a quarter point actually addresses.
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