Day 63 of the never-ending bull story. Price pauses briefly sitting just under new all-time highs. I once again sound like a broken record.
Three stocks – Micron, Nvidia, Alphabet – now drive over 40% of this year’s S&P EPS revisions. The Three Atlases are holding up the whole sky.
Nine consecutive weekly gains on the S&P, +19.0% from 27 March. Only the 14th occurrence since 1930. Strongest of all time.
SPX in a range – wait for the breakout. RUT in a range – has broken out. Nice and simple.
BTC moving down like a madman. Small breakout target smashed. New larger target 60k zone. Elliott Wave count could see 50k.
Brent +5% to $95 on Hormuz threat. ISM Manufacturing prices index 82.1 – rate cuts dying. Zero Fed cuts now priced for 2026.
Three indexes closed at records Monday on one Nvidia laptop chip; Dell rose 10%, HP gained 8%, Intel fell 4%, and by Tuesday the futures had sobered up and slipped.
Micron, Nvidia and Alphabet drive over 40% of 2026 S&P earnings revisions, which makes the record-breaking rally a technically impressive three-man job with a 7,750 target.
Brent spiked 5% above $95 after Iran cut talks and threatened Hormuz; Trump assured everyone it works out, and the equity tape simply chose to believe him.
Markets now price zero Fed cuts in 2026 with ISM at 54 and prices at 82.1; Warsh inherits a hike-risk economy at his first meeting on June 17.
Bitcoin opened June near $73K as Strategy sold for the first time since 2022, proving the only thing more flexible than the price is the word never.
Bulls at it like rabbits again, bonking away to new all-time highs on three of the four indexes. Right on cue for the first of the month.
VIX heading down the rabbit hole, confirming the complacency. Nudging towards the year’s volatility lows. All the fear is gone.
Sell in May and go away bucked again. May was a stellar month for the record books in this “crash upwards for no reason” economy.
SPX swings keep swinging higher. With the continued flip-and-flops, wait for the breakdown before considering a bear move.
RUT out of the MACD-v danger zone. Clear range established. Waiting for the breakout before committing to a new swing trade.
BTC has been a darling – clear bear signal on the 4hr from daily range highs to range lows, multiple continuation setups along the way. Simples.
New month, first week full of red-flag news. ISM Monday. ADP and ISM Services Wednesday. NFP Friday.
Futures up. S&P 0.29%, Nasdaq 0.57%. June opened at records on a 60-day Iran deal Trump has not signed and is, by his own account, in no rush to.
SoftBank threw $53 billion at French AI and rose 5%. Nvidia idled near $211 and watched Samsung grab a chip first. The bellwether keeps missing its own rallies.
Brent near $92.56 after a 19% May rout, its worst month since the pandemic. The rally’s secret ingredient was cheaper oil, not anything resembling actual resolution.
Bitcoin near $73,600, below every average, as ETFs walked out with $2.3 billion. Stocks made records while crypto sat in Extreme Fear and quietly counted its losses.
April PCE hit 3.8%, the hottest since 2023. Warsh chairs his first FOMC June 16-17. Markets booked cuts; the inflation data appears to have booked something else.
We hit Friday up but still sluggish. The “markets only go up” run while frustrating will eventually come to an end. I don’t believe we’ll see a complete market collapse – but a consolidation wouldn’t be unrealistic.
On a personal note I would like to see a corrective move 5-10% simply because the market needs to reset itself. The price behaviour on most of the time frames is horrendous. Very scrappy.
SPX swings flipped bullish and back to bearish just as quick. Kept my bear swing, will likely roll it today if we don’t get a down move. Lazy more than anything.
RUT still in avoid mode due to the MACD-v reading. Gliding into a BBW pinch / range – waiting for the breakout makes sense.
BTC continues its down move. Now in breakout mode looking for a push to 70.5k as the breakout target.
Last Friday of the month – can be a little scrappy.
Wall Street closed at records celebrating a 60-day Hormuz truce Trump hasn’t signed, struck hours after fresh missiles. Peace got priced. Peace did not get agreed.
SPX held 7,563 into month-end on a catalyst with a blank signature line. The only honest number on the page, 3.8% inflation, was politely ignored.
Bitcoin slid under $74,000 as ETFs bled $223M, the worst day in three weeks. The institutional bid that built the floor quietly left the building.
April PCE hit 3.8%, highest since May 2023, and the Fed’s promised cut evaporated. Warsh’s welcome gift is a possible hike at the mid-June meeting.
Friday brings month-end and three crowded bets: peace, disinflation, a dovish Fed. All three lean on one unsigned page. Pick which folds first.