Markets holding their breath since Monday – Iran strike on standby, Tuesday rally on standby, Nvidia decides tonight what gets to breathe again
FOMC minutes release today from Powell’s last meeting – six days after he stopped being Fed Chair, Warsh reads them anyway
Thirty-year touched 5.19% – the bond rout is steady, the equity bid did not blink
SPX bullish swing intact but the Bollinger Band width is compressing – not pinched yet, but close enough to start thinking about a consolidation opportunity
RUT looking far more interesting – bullish TnT setup, exiting the bearish MACD-v extreme, V-entry pullback above 2,765 providing add-in opportunities
Futures sit where Tuesday left them. The 30-year at 5.19%, a yield that used to trigger Hollywood recession montages and now triggers a shrug. The bond rout is steady.
Nvidia reports fiscal Q1 after the close. Consensus $79 billion revenue, 78% growth, 90% implied beat. Tonight Wall Street sacrifices its chicken to one chip vendor.
Powell’s final FOMC minutes drop at 14:00 ET. Powell left May 15. Warsh chaired five days. We are reading the diary of a man who has left the building.
Bitcoin held $77,000 overnight after its worst week since February. Saylor stands $1,300 above the iceberg. Diamond hands, very quietly and ceremoniously, opened.
Trump’s Iran strike sits postponed, optional, ready for any moment. Brent holds $110.73. Hormuz stays closed. Schrödinger’s war: simultaneously on, off, and irrelevant to the chart.
SPX system bullish, no TnT yet. The trade is a bull-swing failure if it triggers.
RUT bear swing active. Price working from 2,854.67 toward new target 2,767.8.
BTC moved through Target 1 at $76,459.65. Heading toward Target 2 at $72,500. %R still in trend.
Two losing sessions across SPX and NazQuack, third potentially overnight. Multi-day sell-off finally arrived.
Futures slip a second day. S&P -0.23%, Nasdaq -0.46% premarket. Memory chips, having priced AI capacity as infinite, briefly remembered that fabs are physical objects.
Home Depot prints 9am ET. Consensus $3.41 EPS on $41.6B revenue. First proper US consumer read of the week, against shares already down 21% past year.
Trump postponed Tuesday’s Iran strike. Brent fell 1.84% to $110.26. Hormuz, somewhat awkwardly, remains shut. Aramco CEO sees 2027 normalisation if blocked past mid-June.
Bitcoin trades sub-$77K, having returned every gain of May. Crypto ETFs bled $1.07B last week. Strategy bought $2B more. Goldman exited XRP and Solana entirely.
Wednesday brings Powell’s final FOMC minutes plus Nvidia after close. The market gets to find out whether two losing days were a glitch or a leading indicator.
SPX -1.24% Friday / NazQuack -1.54% / VIX +6.78% to 18.43 / 10Y +13.6bps to 4.595% / 30Y cleared 5.12%
TnT system remains bullish, just missed a bear setup. A new bull tag failure flips the system to bearish.
RUT pushed back into the prior range on the daily. The bear thesis needs to be considered.
BTC bear trend below minus 80 on percent R. MACD-v also bearish. A cat’s whisker from Target 1.
Equities: S&P closed Friday -1.24% at 7,408.50 after PPI hit 6%. Monday futures down another 0.68%. VIX jumped 6.78%. The tape caught up.
SPX cue: Premarket bid sits near 7,380. Hold and Nvidia Wednesday becomes the bounce trigger. Fail it and the 50-day comes into view fast.
Crypto: Bitcoin under $77K, testing the $75K-$78K battleground. ETH at $2,272, ten days of ETF inflows and yet no price confirmation through resistance.
Macro: Warsh inherits a 6% PPI, a 30-year above 5.12%, and a Hormuz closure on day one. FOMC minutes Wednesday read the Powell-era dissent map for him.
Forward look: Nvidia after close Wednesday is now the week’s hero or the week’s accelerant. Walmart Tuesday sets the consumer tone. Brent at $111 will not stop reminding.