Sat out Monday entirely — TACO Instance 848 sent ES 200 points in both directions on a social media post — low confidence, correct decision, no harm done
Tuesday hit back immediately — SPX 4 from 4, RUT 3 from 3 — the cleanest session of the week
Wednesday IV chaos triggered stops twice on SPX — took re-entries, adjusted sizing — RUT one clean Lazy Popper — net positive both instruments
Thursday nearly went full tilt on the RUT — cup of tea, ear lobes, woosaaaah — came back, cleaned up, very profitable day
Friday closed it cleanly — SPX 3 from 3, RUT 3 from 3 — week total 25 trades, 21 wins, 84% win rate
Trump extended the strike deadline to April 6 – ten more days – Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed Hormuz stays closed – embarrassing to watch
Thursday brutal: S&P -1.74%, Nasdaq worst session since the war began, Meta -7.9%, tech wrecked, energy won – pre-market recovering modestly but already popping and dropping
SPX officially bearish and broken out of the mid-week range – GEX had 6,600 as the ceiling all week, now all eyes on 6,400
RUT officially back bearish, broken back into the range – target pending – recent history suggests a cluster f**k after hours and over the weekend
Poppers yesterday: 1st BOs crapped out, nearly went full tilt on the RUT reversal, cup of tea, ear lobes rubbed, woosaaaah – came back, VWAP Flops, 3rd BO, VWAP retest – very profitable day
Iran reviewed the 15-point plan overnight and called it non-viable – counter-demand is sovereign control of Hormuz – non-starter
Brent back to $104, S&P futures -0.6%, 82nd Airborne deploying, Kuwait airport burning – the clock expires Saturday
SPX bearish and flatlining – gap down at open likely – GEX has 6,600 and 6,500 as the pivotal levels – price ran up, now likely to run down
RUT attempted the bullish range break this week – gap lower back into the range most likely – bear target around 2,470
Yesterday’s poppers: IV jumping triggered stops twice on expansion with favourable slippage – 2 re-entries, position sizing adjusted – RUT one Lazy Popper via MACDv entry – overall still very profitable
Iran 15-point peace plan via Pakistan leaked overnight – futures loved it, Tehran denied it, nobody knows who to believe
Oil down 4.7% to $99.55 – pop could push us toward the 6,600 GEX put level before the fade toward 6,500
Negative GEX environment continues – jumpy jittery price action is the feature, not the bug
MACD-v reporting absolutely no momentum anywhere – slight bear bias on SPX, no bias on RUT grinding sideways in the prior range zone
Premium Poppers back on top form Tuesday – one annoying stop trigger that came back as a small gain, rest of the day was killer
The TACO returned Monday – “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” – Iran denied any talks existed – markets ripped then consolidated
Did nothing Monday and came out the other side with the TnT bearish again – no harm no foul – if in doubt, do nowt
Both SPX and RUT have fresh bearish setups on 30 min / 30 periods – back to the business at hand
5-day clock expires Saturday – the threat machine can reload for the weekend – we’ve seen this movie before
The bear is back on – price finally challenging the range held since last September/October – the next breakout and down is in play
Trump’s Hormuz ultimatum expires tonight at 7:44pm ET – Tehran’s response: “strike electricity, we strike electricity” – no compliance signals anywhere
SPX swings remain bearish – RUT Friday bull TnT was on the last bar, impossible to execute – gap down today keeps the bear case intact
SpotGamma: $1.4 trillion in delta notional expired Friday, the market’s shock absorber is gone, realised vol has room to catch up with implied