SPX has followed a familiar pattern the last two weeks – a Monday gap down followed by a bearish move into the weekend.
With Super Bowl Sunday ahead, markets are mirroring the big game – will bears strike again, or do we see a surprise play?
Friday’s bearish setup was a V-shaped entry + bearish pulse bar, eerily similar to the last two Fridays.
Given this pattern, I wouldn’t be surprised to see another Monday pop ‘n drop.
The only question is – what will be the tipping point?
...The U.S. stock market is hitting dangerous territory with foreign investment soaring to a record-breaking $15.7 trillion—nearly double the 30-year average. While this influx has supercharged valuations, history shows that when foreign capital hits peak levels, markets tend to collapse soon after (2000, 2007).
⚠️ The warning signs are clear:
Overheated markets propped up by speculation
Excessive leverage fueling an unsustainable rally
Geopolitical tensions that could spark an exodus of foreign capital
How to protect yourself? Diversify, manage risk, and prepare for what could be the next major market reset. The AI boom may be today’s driver, but history suggests a painful reckoning may not be far behind.
...The bullish rally continues, with SPX pushing from range lows to range highs.
The NFP report is set to drop before the open – a key market-moving event that could decide whether we smash through 6100 or bounce off resistance.
Some whipsaw action is likely before things settle, but the existing bullish move should at least get a final push toward targets.
For now, we wait – but this is the good kind of waiting.
...Not every trade can be a winner, and this one was a dud. Despite a tiny movement in the right direction, the strike selection was too deep in the money, leaving no opportunity to manage or roll the trade.
The trade setup:
✅ $15.25 credit received on a $30 wide broken wing butterfly
❌ Closed at max loss of $30, a -96.7% hit
With no break-even exit or rolling opportunity, the only move was to let it expire and take the loss. That’s trading – you take the wins and the lessons.
...SPX continues to climb, pushing through the middle of the range, with 6100-6120 as the next profit target.
Once we reach it, I’ll assess for a Tag ‘n Turn reversal, looking for bearish pulse bars or a V-shaped reversal. Until then, it’s a waiting game – either for profits to roll in or for hedge triggers to flip.
Meanwhile, I’m off on a wild adventure to the zoo, keeping an eye on the markets (and maybe a few flamingos) from afar.
...SPX has been stuck in a sideways range, with Monday’s Tag ‘n Turn setup landing at the range low.
The next target is 6100, where we’ll either see a range reversal or a bullish breakout.
Given the short distance to target, scaling in isn’t ideal, so for now, it’s a waiting game—either for bullish targets to hit or for bearish hedge triggers to fire.
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