Wall Street ignored a war for a fortnight, then noticed it in an afternoon. The Dow shed 620 points as the peace it kept pricing stubbornly refused to exist.
Broadcom beat and fell 13%. CrowdStrike beat and fell 10%. The two earnings hired to confirm the AI rally turned up and resigned on the spot.
The SPX read: oil reclaimed $97, yields climbed, and two weeks of optimism unwound before lunch. Friday’s payrolls inherit a tape that has stopped pretending.
Bitcoin hit $65,710, half its October high, while the never-sell firm sold. Analysts insisted it was planned, which is precisely what one says after selling.
May payrolls land Friday, the last number before Warsh’s first meeting. The tape priced calm for a fortnight and now owes the arithmetic, with late fees.
The moves to new all-time highs are continuing but the momentum – in the form of the range of movement – is getting smaller. Conviction is getting weaker.
Aside from the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the move higher may well be happening as opposed to the resting week history suggests. We’re only on hump day so it still can stall in line with historical stats.
The main stock indexes continue to befuddle and stupify. One for the potter heads.
SPX: rising channel changing its angle of dangle. Stick with waiting for a breakout.
RUT: breakout turned out to be a false break. Holding the swing until Thursday before deciding. Range-high break = bull move. Range-low break = big picture range reversal on the daily.
BTC has fell out the apple tree missing all the branches on the way down. Looking for more shorts around 70k. Target 60k. Potential 50k. Alt-season die-hards will try the recovery story.
Oil pushing back into the prior range. Pullback to 95 would be a nice party invite.
Gold is middling and not interesting just yet.
GEX has huge bullish exposure but bear GEX sneaking in overnight – super tiny. Watching whether that increases or disappears.
Futures slipped before the open. S&P E-minis off 0.26%, Nasdaq off 0.54%, as oil and yields rose. Two days of records met their first real test.
Chips carried Tuesday. Marvell jumped a third on a Huang compliment and HPE 19% on a raise. Alphabet fell 4% on an 80 billion dollar sale plan.
Bitcoin slid under 67,000 and Ethereum under 2,000. Spot Bitcoin ETFs shed 483.8 million Monday after May’s record 2.3 billion in outflows.
Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time since 2022. Just 32 coins from a 843,706-coin stack to fund a dividend, yet the never-sell narrative did not survive it.
Trump criticised Warsh two weeks before the new chair’s first meeting. Markets now price a 61% chance the Fed funds rate ends 2026 higher, not lower.
Day 63 of the never-ending bull story. Price pauses briefly sitting just under new all-time highs. I once again sound like a broken record.
Three stocks – Micron, Nvidia, Alphabet – now drive over 40% of this year’s S&P EPS revisions. The Three Atlases are holding up the whole sky.
Nine consecutive weekly gains on the S&P, +19.0% from 27 March. Only the 14th occurrence since 1930. Strongest of all time.
SPX in a range – wait for the breakout. RUT in a range – has broken out. Nice and simple.
BTC moving down like a madman. Small breakout target smashed. New larger target 60k zone. Elliott Wave count could see 50k.
Brent +5% to $95 on Hormuz threat. ISM Manufacturing prices index 82.1 – rate cuts dying. Zero Fed cuts now priced for 2026.
Three indexes closed at records Monday on one Nvidia laptop chip; Dell rose 10%, HP gained 8%, Intel fell 4%, and by Tuesday the futures had sobered up and slipped.
Micron, Nvidia and Alphabet drive over 40% of 2026 S&P earnings revisions, which makes the record-breaking rally a technically impressive three-man job with a 7,750 target.
Brent spiked 5% above $95 after Iran cut talks and threatened Hormuz; Trump assured everyone it works out, and the equity tape simply chose to believe him.
Markets now price zero Fed cuts in 2026 with ISM at 54 and prices at 82.1; Warsh inherits a hike-risk economy at his first meeting on June 17.
Bitcoin opened June near $73K as Strategy sold for the first time since 2022, proving the only thing more flexible than the price is the word never.
Bulls at it like rabbits again, bonking away to new all-time highs on three of the four indexes. Right on cue for the first of the month.
VIX heading down the rabbit hole, confirming the complacency. Nudging towards the year’s volatility lows. All the fear is gone.
Sell in May and go away bucked again. May was a stellar month for the record books in this “crash upwards for no reason” economy.
SPX swings keep swinging higher. With the continued flip-and-flops, wait for the breakdown before considering a bear move.
RUT out of the MACD-v danger zone. Clear range established. Waiting for the breakout before committing to a new swing trade.
BTC has been a darling – clear bear signal on the 4hr from daily range highs to range lows, multiple continuation setups along the way. Simples.
New month, first week full of red-flag news. ISM Monday. ADP and ISM Services Wednesday. NFP Friday.