Why SPX gaps into the upper BB and where a bear TnT could fire today.
How Uncle Russ still pays out on the bear even after the gap higher.
What crude’s 8% dump onto the net VWAP means, and why $81 matters.
Where BTC’s small rally could turn out to be a lower high on the daily.
Crude fell 6.99% on the absence of two nights of strikes, with no ceasefire and no announcement. Rates and vol followed it down. Gold and the dollar did not, and that gap is the interesting part.
...Crude fell 6.99% this morning because nobody bombed anything for two nights. There is no ceasefire, no agreement and no explanation. The blockade is still running, and the tape called it peace anyway.
...Why the SPX bullish flip mirrors the setup we saw on the 17th, and where 7,380 flips it back to bear.
How Uncle Russ floats at the range lows with the bear roaring below 2,925.
What crude’s overnight pullback toward rising VWAP unlocks as a bull swing add-in.
Why the BTC breakout trade is done and the range reversal down to 63k is now on.
Alphabet raised its capex $15 billion and the Mag7 wrote a $797 billion cheque; Intel raised its capex $2 billion and got paid 12%. Same word, opposite reception. Today’s letter walks the mechanism.
...Alphabet posted the cleanest Google quarter in five years and got sold $180 billion for it. The rest of the Mag7 caught the same knife. The number that broke the tape was the capex guide.
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