The S&P 500 rose 0.70% on Monday while 55.29% of NYSE volume traded in falling shares, 736 million of them against Friday’s 737 million on a down day. New lows beat new highs on both exchanges, 70% of the index gain has no named cause, the 6-month bill rose and the 20-year fell before Wednesday’s statement.
...Carpet bombing declared and withdrawn inside 45 minutes, a VIX that can’t get through 20, and the question the community asked me over the weekend: how do you trade a market that swings like this when you haven’t got time to watch it? Trade through, or go up a timeframe. The new strategy fired 3 bullish setups on the daily chart on Friday. Crude is almost at the 104.50 bull target, Bitcoin is turning off the channel lows again.
...December WTI settled 103.27, up 3.82%, and every Treasury tenor rose or held, the 2-year by 4 basis points and the 20-year by 5, with the 2s10s spread unchanged at 31. Bond volatility fell 3.30%. A level move, not a re-pricing of the committee.
...Friday the Dow fell 653 points and the Nasdaq 100 fell 1, one session after the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.90% and the Dow held. Three quarters of the Dow’s fall has no named cause, two phone companies lost 8% on a reported conversation, December WTI settled 103.27, and every Treasury tenor rose or held.
...Once again the move was done overnight. SPX is bullish at the range lows, VIX is down to mild hysteria, crude eyes $104.50 and the sentiment charts are keeping me bullish for the moment.
...Semiconductors fell 6.79% and the Dow closed higher. Six of eleven sectors rose in the same session and high yield rose 0.16%. On published durations, high yield captured 38.75% of what the Treasury move implies and investment grade captured more than all of it.
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