The Fed delivered its first hike since 2023 on a unanimous vote. By the next close the two-year sat exactly where it started, the ten-year lower, and Saudi tankers had done the only real tightening.
...A packed press room before a Fed announcement with every journalist leaning towards an empty podium, while Mr SPX sits in the second row buttering toast on a folding tray table with the black cat beside him watching the podium attentively.
...The Fed raises rates today, a day after the Treasury’s 20-year sale drew a record-low foreign share. We try to work out which problem a quarter point actually addresses.
...The Fed raises rates this afternoon to fix a bond market that has already fixed its own price. Tuesday’s 20-year sale says the buyers are the problem now.
...The index futures rolled overnight, so anyone looking at a continuous contract this morning saw a huge gap up that never happened. The ETF extended hours tell the real story, which is a market selling off. Inside: SPX filling the gap on the rally and likely opening outside the range, RUT dropping and pausing with the next leg starting overnight, Bitcoin eyeing a range low break, and a VIX holding above 16 for a third day.
...The ten-year reached 5.041% this morning, the highest since 2007, whilst the policy rate sits at 3.50%. We try to work out which of the two is actually steering the ship.
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