Iran’s parliament flagged three ceasefire clause breaches overnight – IRGC confirmed Hormuz tanker traffic halted again after Israel struck Lebanon – the deal is looking shaky already
Futures -0.22% after yesterday’s best session since April 2025 – S&P +2.51%, Dow +2.85%, Nasdaq +2.80%, WTI -16% – the euphoria is fading fast
Price stalled right at the anchored bearish VWAP from the year high on both instruments – that is an interesting and very deliberate-looking place to stop
New bearish TnT on SPX and RUT – warning grade – MACD-v at bullish extreme so a snap back is possible like 2 April – 2-DTE Friday expiry trades taken on tight leash
No premium popper trade yesterday – new scoring system flagged low confidence – chose to leave it – right call given the subsequent sideways grind
Eight PM ET – Pakistan brokered a two-week ceasefire – Hormuz conditionally reopening – carpet bombing threat was another idle TACO – markets loved it instantly
S&P futures +2.5%, Nasdaq +3.3%, Dow +1,000 points, VIX -20% to 20.63 – war premium unwinding – oil -16% to WTI $94
The bullish bias from last week has come to fruition – VIX through 22 – may well have seen the market bottom – short term is bullish
SPX broke out of the tight range yesterday – should be popping 150 points or so higher assuming the overnight holds – RUT flat awaiting fresh setup
Operation Battery Recharge complete – back at the desk – deep OTM SPX butterflies looking spectacular at the open – woot woot
Trump’s deadline is tonight at 8pm ET – reopen Hormuz or face strikes – Iran said permanent end or nothing – deadline five, same pattern as four previous
Monday was flat as a pancake – bullish engulfing on the futures daily but the cash session was an exceptionally narrow range – action mostly premarket
Very little has changed from Monday’s view – range behaving like a range – expect a bull move on the breakout – 6,600 now looking like support, 6,690 overhead resistance
Full data gauntlet this week – FOMC minutes Wednesday, PCE Thursday, March CPI Friday – first CPI to capture Iran’s energy surge – JPM projects headline jumps to 3.4%
Day four of Operation Battery Recharge – zoo spotting today – giant otters had twin pups – this is a priority
Trump’s April 6 deadline expired – Iran’s response was full compensation first then maybe – Trump’s counter is Tuesday 8pm ET with threats on power plants and bridges – Brent at $109
NFP dropped +178K on Good Friday into closed markets – first reaction today – strong jobs, cooling wages, Fed stays frozen – Core PCE still 3%
Overnight futures opened 20 points down, now 40 up, still grinding sideways – ranges within ranges within ranges – eye roll, tut
BB pinch on both SPX and RUT says price is resting – 84% continuation signal from 30-year data study completed last week – wait for the setup
UK bank holiday today – extending the long weekend into Tuesday – the market can wait
Michael S. closes out two full weeks — 17 winners, 4 losers, 80.9% win rate, $525 net on 1 contract — still learning VWAP setups, targeting scale to 2 contracts after one more week of consistency
Andy D. had the session of the week on Tuesday — 4 trades, 4 wins, 98%/97%/98%/96% ROC, never in danger after the first 90 minutes
Duncan G.’s bearish BWB hit its 90% target three days ahead of schedule while the rest of the market was in chaos
Don E. held through a stressful SPX bull BO reversal, waited for the price to cross back through VWAP at 10:55am, closed 67% ROC
8 traders, Mr Miyagi week, peace suggestions and carpet bomb threats — the system collected premiums throughout
Only traded Monday and Thursday – sat out Tuesday, Wednesday, and most of Thursday morning – not missing trades, managing the trader
Monday was the week’s standout session – 4 wins on SPX, 2 wins on RUT – clean and consistent ROC band throughout
Tuesday sidestepped the morning gap and grind correctly – the late morning breakout that followed was exactly as anticipated but a news blip sent things reeling before it developed
Wednesday same read – extreme MACD-v after gap higher – anticipated slow morning grind – sat on hands – BOs would have been fine but happy to sit out when things look weird
Thursday two standard setups plus two experimental gap-fill discretionary exhaustion entries on the extreme move – all four paid – 10 from 10 on the week