The ten-year hit 5.041% this morning, its highest since 2007, whilst the policy rate sits at 3.50%. The Fed decides Wednesday. The bond market decided last week.
...New week, markets gapping down 50ish in the premarket and holding the lows, and the Nasdaq out in front of the charge after AI got a clobbering over the weekend from the AI people themselves. Inside: the first time price has not reached the upper channel boundary before turning lower, a VIX up 12.49%, free space below RUT all the way to 2,800, and Bitcoin’s bear and bull zones now marked up.
...Crude cleared $100 and the ten-year neared 5%, and neither moved the growth complex like a weekend essay did. We work out what that 1.47 point gap between the two stock indices is actually pricing.
...Dow futures moved 0.22% and Nasdaq futures moved 1.69% on the same morning. That 1.47 point gap opened on Sunday night and never filled, and for once it has nothing to do with Wednesday’s Fed.
...Thursday’s news moved price lower exactly as expected, and Friday brings another one. Inside: a V pattern entry sitting at the SPX range lows for the umpteenth time, futures up around 40 points ahead of the 8:30 release, a VIX that isn’t falling nearly as fast as the S&P is rising, crude sat exactly on 100, and a Popper day that was effectively finished before the US had opened.
...A wholesale print beat by a tenth and September hike pricing jumped ten points. The inflation it measured arrived by sea, and the tool being readied for it does not go there.
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