The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.112670% on Monday and 87.760278% of it was an opening gap. Underneath, NYSE new lows doubled to 85. We work out which of the two measures is describing tomorrow.

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The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.112670% on Monday and 87.760278% of that was an opening gap. Underneath it, NYSE new lows more than doubled to 85 and new highs halved to 30. Nobody can say why.

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The Black Monday call never showed, the S&P went a big boof higher overnight, and VIXen is flirting again. Here’s why I suspect the bear moves aren’t quite over, and the line VIX has to cross for them to get serious.

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Equity volatility closed 19.99 on Friday, up 21.44593%, whilst its own three-month curve stayed in contango at 0.975122 and bond volatility fell. Here is the single number that would have settled it, and why nobody has it.

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Friday the fear gauge closed 19.99, up 21.44593%, and then declined to do the one thing that would have made it mean something. Its own three-month curve stayed in contango at 0.975122, bond volatility fell, and 81.485363% of the index fall has no stated cause.

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Bull shakeout, bear shakeout, false breaks morning, noon and close. The last time price behaved like this was the 2 months before 2008. Here’s how the data keeps me sane, plus the swing reads on SPX, RUT and crude.

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