SPX 7,365.12 fresh ATH +1.46% on peace rumour / Nasdaq +2.02% / Dow +612 / ES NQ RTY all NATHs overnight
AMD +20% post-earnings / SMCI +15% / Corning +17% on Nvidia partnership / chip cycle out-shouted Hormuz
Be the bull, trade the bull / cautious bear swing if it sets up / MACD-V still suggesting more upside
GEX migrated up: 7,350 new dominant / 7,400 secondary / 7,300 demoted to floor
Records on rumour. SPX 7,365 and Nasdaq 25,838 hit fresh all-time highs Wednesday. Trump described the catalyst as “perhaps, a big assumption.” Markets, having considered, advanced.
Crude collapsed 7% to $95.08 WTI on a peace narrative. Hormuz crossings on Wednesday: zero. The market priced the deal. The Strait remained, somewhat awkwardly, closed.
AMD up 20%. Super Micro up 15%. Corning up 17%. The chip rally now louder than the war it allegedly survived. RSI above 70 flags the obvious.
Bitcoin near $82,000 on three-day ETF streak past $1.16 billion. The asset celebrated as uncorrelated rallied because oil fell. Correlation, considered, returned to its desk.
Today: jobless claims at 8:30 ET, Fed-president remarks, Coinbase earnings tonight after their 14% cut. Friday delivers payrolls. Records meet the data, or vice versa.
SPX 7,259.22 fresh ATH +0.81% / ES NQ RTY all NATHs overnight / Dow still lagging / 7,300 GEX anchor pulling SPX up / swings flipped back bullish
RUT didn’t even give a minute to trade the bear TnT before flipping back to bullish / headache saved / MACD-V bullish extreme on both
AMD beat hard / +15% AH on top of +66% YTD / data centre +57% / bar moved with it / Disney Uber Arm today
BTC breaking rising channel toward $100K / Gold V-entry from range lows targeting $5K / NFP Friday 49K consensus
S&P closed Tuesday at 7,259.22, a fresh record, whilst Iran was still hitting UAE infrastructure on Monday. The tape decided peace was good enough. VIX agreed.
AMD beat by 9.6% on EPS and guided Q2 to $11.2B at 56% margin. Stock added 15% on top of the 66% year-to-date it already had.
Oil shed 4% Tuesday on Hegseth’s ceasefire confirmation. WTI $102.27, Brent $109.87. Kalshi still says 56% odds Hormuz normalises by August. Both can be true.
Bitcoin cleared $80,000 on May 1’s $629M ETF inflow. Funding rate -5% on 30-day average, which is the carry trade, not a signal. Look beneath.
Disney, Uber, Arm Holdings report pre-market today, alongside Novo Nordisk and CVS. NFP Friday, consensus 49,000 jobs, the new soft-landing baseline. Twelve months ago it was the recession alarm.
Monday cash: SPX 7,200.75 -0.41% / Dow -1.13% (-557 points) / Nasdaq -0.19% / Energy alone in green +0.6% / 10 of 11 sectors red
Tuesday pre-market: ES +0.2% / NQ +0.2% / YM +102 / NazQuack pumping fresh NATHs without a pause
SPX bear TnT continues, BB compress suggests possible sideways consolidation / RUT missed the bear TnT window, BBs pinch, may open near upper BB for new tag
GEX 7,300 new anchor pin alongside 7,200 previous anchor / range could develop between if exposure holds / NFP Friday is the week’s catalyst
Futures tick up 0.2% after Monday’s 557-point Dow flush. UAE intercepted Iranian missiles. The ceasefire is now defended by Patriot batteries, not the April press release.
SPX cue: Friday’s record at 7,230 sits 30 points above implied open. AMD reports Tuesday afternoon. The bar Palantir set is now distinctly ungenerous to neighbours.
Bitcoin tags $80,500 for the first time since January. Spot BTC ETFs took $629.7M on Friday after redeeming Monday through Wednesday. Late, but cheerful, as ever.
Palantir delivered 85% revenue growth, beat EPS by 18%, and raised guide to $7.66B. Stock added 1.5% after-hours. Wall Street, having considered this, applauded politely.
Watch the Warsh Senate vote, AMD guide Tuesday, Friday’s payrolls print, and Hormuz shipping data. Energy was Monday’s lone green sector. The other ten declined comment.