More NYSE stocks rose than fell on Tuesday and more NYSE volume went into the ones that fell. Monday did exactly the opposite. One of those two days is lying.

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The bear séance is over. Midterm October has historically been the best month of the year for the Dow and S&P 500, Uncle Dow is already leading the charge, and breadth sits at the lower extremes that marked this year’s turns. Plus the SPX, Crude Oil and Bitcoin reads.

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On Monday the NYSE’s advance-decline line and its up-down volume line finished on opposite sides of parity. The textbook says volume confirms breadth. Here is what it means when it refuses.

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Monday’s index print said nothing happened. Underneath it 1,207 more stocks fell than rose, the Dow and the Nasdaq-100 finished 1.086014 percentage points apart, and the money that was moving went into the biggest names only.

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Consumer sentiment fell 1.8 points to 46.3 and the 2-year closed 5 basis points higher the same afternoon. The shape of the curve’s move tells us which end of the market repriced.

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Friday was the broadest tape since 2 October. It was also the session three phone companies each lost over 10% of themselves, and T-Mobile did 69.5% of its damage in the opening gap, before a single share changed hands.

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