The 2-year breakeven hit a 2026 low on Thursday, the bond market betting inflation is beaten. Over the weekend Hormuz re-closed and crude clawed back toward $80. Were markets right, or early?
...The bond market declared inflation beaten on Thursday, breakevens at a 2026 low. Then Iran re-closed Hormuz, crude clawed back toward $80, and Thursday’s PCE is still coming.
...Stocks at a Brazilian times earnings, and everyone in the coffee shop has a tip. Back in 2018 I watched three crypto conversations break out two tables over. Ten days later, crypto winter. When the people who shouldn’t be giving market advice start giving it, that’s your cue to quietly walk the other way.
...Half the Fed now pencils a 2026 hike, the committee that promised a cut in March. Stocks round-tripped the news in a day. The front end and crypto still don’t believe them. Who’s right?
...Nine of 18 Fed officials now pencil a 2026 hike, the committee that promised a cut in March. Stocks bought the dip back in a day. The only market open Friday did not.
...Warsh said good day, the market threw a tantrum, and my bear swings cashed in.
The 1-DTE overnight trades quietly beat the usual 3-DTE swings. Again.
Gold finally rewarded the patience. Right idea, and this time the right timing too.
The one day most traders refuse to touch is the one the data likes best.