The midterms are decided and the market did what it always does, sold the uncertainty and bought the certainty. The S&P is back inside its range, my VIX trade is deflating, crude still looks heavy for $89, Bitcoin turns off the range lows, and the Double Dip flags a fresh shallow dip on XBI, the biotech.
...Democrats won both chambers overnight. December Nasdaq 100 futures fell 2.44% and recovered it. Spot gold rose 2.45%, mostly after 05:00 UTC, whilst the dollar index fell 0.47%.
...Democrats won both chambers in the midterms, flipping 7 Senate and 16 House seats by 06:30 UTC. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 2.44% during the count, then rose every hour to finish the morning 0.98% higher. Spot gold rose and stayed up.
...Americans vote tonight and the cash market shuts first. SPX and the NazQuack are at support, ready to break or turn, and for a change I’m thinking knee jerk then bullish. Plus crude through $100 and Bitcoin back at range lows.
...December WTI fell 7.36% on Monday. The 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields fell 3bp; the 2-year rose 3bp to 4.59%, ending a three-session decline. The textbook expected the opposite order.
...December WTI fell 7.36% on reports of Qatar-led US-Iran talks, and the 2-year Treasury yield rose 3bp. The Nasdaq 100 lost 1.39%, the Dow rose, and spot gold rose 1.90%.
...Money is a byproduct of process. Trading is a business, not a hobby: it has profits and losses, and on average a proven process should yield a profit. Follow the process, accept the losses, turn your size down, know when to sit flat, and stay in your own lane. Break the rules and you’re gambling.
...I took a VIX trade live on Friday with the S&P at support and no major catalyst. The weekend stayed quiet and the trade is playing out nicely. Plus the Almanac’s November edge, SPX back into the range, crude’s double top inside a double top and the Double Dip.
...Friday handed gold two of the three textbook reasons to rise: a 3.5% Nasdaq 100 fall and a 5bp drop in the 2-year. The dollar rose 0.1%. Spot gold fell 3.7%, and this book holds no cause for it.
...Intel and Reddit fell further on Friday than their after-hours marks said; Amazon fell far less. The Nasdaq 100 lost 3.5%, gold lost 3.7%, and futures bounced.
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