For most of this year the overnight bounce has turned up on cue. This morning it didn’t. ES has gone near vertical lower from the European open, Uncle Russ is leading the charge as usual, and the VIX is climbing towards the one level that changes the picture entirely. Inside: what 7,650 on ES actually trips, and why the inverted trend line on Bitcoin has just done its job.
...Crude settled 2.83% higher on a US-Iran exchange and the whole rates response landed at the back of the curve. The instrument that prices Fed policy moved nothing at all.
...US and Iranian forces traded fire and crude settled up 2.83%. The 2-year Treasury moved zero basis points. Three sessions earlier it moved 14 for a speech that committed to nothing.
...Month end accounting, no black Monday, and a VIX up nearly 6% without a sell off to point at. Inside: why Tesla’s old support has been promoted to resistance and where the V entry targets, plus an update on Bitcoin’s rounding top and the inside day that handed out another low risk way into the bear side.
...The front end repriced hard for a description of inflation and not at all for a 5.7% jump in Brent. Working out which of those two reactions is the mistake.
...Warsh talked about inflation and the 2-year moved 14 basis points. Then a US strike on Hormuz put Brent above 91 dollars, and the instrument that prices inflation could not be bothered.
...Bitcoin has reached its short sale zone and the short is filled, so now the only question is whether the level holds. Meanwhile Mr SPX gapped higher, traded lower, then pushed back up anyway, and the system is flagging a bearish setup with a note attached telling you to leave it well alone.
...Nvidia agreed to pay $12.9bn for about $150m of annual revenue. The buyer, the seller, the customer and the investor keep turning out to be the same handful of firms. What does that do to the price of money?
...Nvidia agreed to buy a company billing $150m a year for $12.9bn, Salesforce rose 23% on an AI partnership, and ten of eleven sectors fell whilst the index closed up. Warsh speaks at ten.
...Bitcoin went for a new high, got a rejection bar for its trouble, and is now sat at the range high having failed to break up and out. Inside: where the dumb money always puts its stop, why half the pattern height is not a risk control, the short filled at 80000, and an SPX gap of around 40 points that still has to prove itself.
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