Up a day, down a day, and a handful of stocks doing the lifting. SPX’s 7660 is holding for the moment, Bitcoin needs 85,000, and I’m waiting to see the logging truck.

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Reality Left the Building With Elvis. I’m Waiting for the Logging Truck.

Monday’s tape raised its odds of another rate increase and sold gold by 3.95% in the same session. The textbook says those two things disagree. We go looking for which one is telling the truth.

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Why Did the Inflation Hedge Fall 4% on an Inflation Day?

The 2-year jumped eleven basis points on Monday as the market raised its odds of another increase. Gold spot, which exists for that exact risk, fell 3.95%. Somebody is wrong.

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11 Basis Points Priced a Hike. Gold Paid for It With 4%.

SPX is flipping off the 7780 zone again, Uncle Russ keeps up the lazy decline, and my fast bear move is back on the table. Here’s why I’d welcome it with October around the corner.

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7780 Said No Again. Fingers Crossed for the Big Bear Drop

The Dow gained 479 points on Friday and 10 NYSE stocks made a 52-week high. The front end fell 6 basis points and the 20-year closed at September’s highest anyway.

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Who Was That 479-Point Rally Actually For?

The Dow added 479 points on Friday and 10 NYSE stocks made a 52-week high. Another 93 made a new low. The 20-year closed at September’s highest and the weekend removed the rest.

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479 Points Said Rally. 10 Stocks Turned Up.

Markets tanked, Iran talked peace, markets pumped, and my head came clean off. VIX played peekaboo with 16, Gold barely clung on, and Bitcoin, of all things, turned out to be the voice of sanity. Here’s how my SPX and RUT bear swings are locked, and what BTC needs for the next add-in.

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Bitcoin Is Now the Sane One. Book Me Into Arkham.

A wire report of US-Iran talks on reopening Hormuz took 3.59% out of crude inside an hour and turned the equity session around. The bond market, settling later with the same information, closed at the month’s highest yield. We try to work out which one was right.

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Why Did Only One Market Believe the Peace Headline?

A report of US-Iran talks on reopening Hormuz took 3.59% out of November crude inside an hour. The Treasury curve, marked later the same afternoon, closed at 5.53%, the highest of the month. One of them is wrong.

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Crude Believed the Peace Report in 1 Hour. The 20-Year Never Did.

We banged the bear drum for THE week, and right on cue the market turned on a dime. SPX’s bull setup looks set to void on a 40 point gap, RUT has flip flopped back to the bear, Bitcoin is almost behaving, and everything on the bear side of the Premium Poppers came home to papa.

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Turned on a Dime, Just Before I Questioned My Bear Sanity. Again.