Futures up 0.6% on a peace deal that has not been signed. Brent down 4%. VIX firmer. Uranium terms and Hormuz tolls remain unresolved details.
Warsh begins his first full session as Fed Chair, inheriting 3.5% PCE and a 19-year high in 30Y yields. Markets price hold through 2026 anyway.
Bitcoin reads identical news to equities and falls 0.88% to $76,635. Six-day ETF outflow streak hits $1.55B. ETH ETFs bleeding ten straight days.
Defence stocks discover that peace is also a risk after four months of being the only trade that worked. Position unwinds become symmetric reversal risk.
AutoZone reports premarket. May confidence at 10:00 ET. Zscaler after the close. The data calendar will quietly disagree with the reopening optimism today, again.

Nvidia beat by $3.6B, added an $80B buyback, raised the dividend. Stock fell 1.26%. Three beats, three sells. Perfection has been repriced as disappointment.
FOMC minutes confirmed hawkish bias if inflation persists. December odds at 50%. 10Y at 4.57%. Markets decided Warsh would fix it. The minutes disagreed.
Walmart beat. Home Depot and Target in-line. Consumer staples carried the index whilst tech digested. Russell 2000 outperformed at +0.93%, the quiet rotation tell.
Bitcoin held $80K through the hawkish repricing. Cumulative ETF inflows hit $59.7B since launch. Halving math now nine times new issuance via institutional bid.
Hormuz week 13. Brent at $104.88. IEA flagged summer red zone. Final May Michigan Sentiment lands today, the last sentiment read before Memorial Day silence.

Futures soften after Wednesday’s 1.08% S&P rip on US-Iran de-escalation hopes. Russell ripped 2.3%, yields dropped 10bps, and Hormuz, somewhat awkwardly, stayed shut.
Nvidia beat with $81.62B revenue and $1.87 EPS. Hyperscalers committed $725B in 2026 capex, up 77%. The AI thesis remains, structurally, immune to the news cycle.
Walmart prints before the open at $174.95B and $0.66 EPS consensus. The retailer warned last week tariffs would force price hikes. Today the math arrives in plain English.
BTC holds $77,841 while US spot ETFs shed $1B last week, largest outflow since February. The mechanical floor thinned. Resistance $82,850 still politely declining visitors.
Hormuz closed week 13, Brent $106, Warsh six days into the chair. The gap between Wednesday’s hope and Thursday’s invoice is today’s only real story.

Futures sit where Tuesday left them. The 30-year at 5.19%, a yield that used to trigger Hollywood recession montages and now triggers a shrug. The bond rout is steady.
Nvidia reports fiscal Q1 after the close. Consensus $79 billion revenue, 78% growth, 90% implied beat. Tonight Wall Street sacrifices its chicken to one chip vendor.
Powell’s final FOMC minutes drop at 14:00 ET. Powell left May 15. Warsh chaired five days. We are reading the diary of a man who has left the building.
Bitcoin held $77,000 overnight after its worst week since February. Saylor stands $1,300 above the iceberg. Diamond hands, very quietly and ceremoniously, opened.
Trump’s Iran strike sits postponed, optional, ready for any moment. Brent holds $110.73. Hormuz stays closed. Schrödinger’s war: simultaneously on, off, and irrelevant to the chart.

Futures slip a second day. S&P -0.23%, Nasdaq -0.46% premarket. Memory chips, having priced AI capacity as infinite, briefly remembered that fabs are physical objects.
Home Depot prints 9am ET. Consensus $3.41 EPS on $41.6B revenue. First proper US consumer read of the week, against shares already down 21% past year.
Trump postponed Tuesday’s Iran strike. Brent fell 1.84% to $110.26. Hormuz, somewhat awkwardly, remains shut. Aramco CEO sees 2027 normalisation if blocked past mid-June.
Bitcoin trades sub-$77K, having returned every gain of May. Crypto ETFs bled $1.07B last week. Strategy bought $2B more. Goldman exited XRP and Solana entirely.
Wednesday brings Powell’s final FOMC minutes plus Nvidia after close. The market gets to find out whether two losing days were a glitch or a leading indicator.

Equities: S&P closed Friday -1.24% at 7,408.50 after PPI hit 6%. Monday futures down another 0.68%. VIX jumped 6.78%. The tape caught up.
SPX cue: Premarket bid sits near 7,380. Hold and Nvidia Wednesday becomes the bounce trigger. Fail it and the 50-day comes into view fast.
Crypto: Bitcoin under $77K, testing the $75K-$78K battleground. ETH at $2,272, ten days of ETF inflows and yet no price confirmation through resistance.
Macro: Warsh inherits a 6% PPI, a 30-year above 5.12%, and a Hormuz closure on day one. FOMC minutes Wednesday read the Powell-era dissent map for him.
Forward look: Nvidia after close Wednesday is now the week’s hero or the week’s accelerant. Walmart Tuesday sets the consumer tone. Brent at $111 will not stop reminding.