Bulls at it like rabbits again, bonking away to new all-time highs on three of the four indexes. Right on cue for the first of the month.
VIX heading down the rabbit hole, confirming the complacency. Nudging towards the year’s volatility lows. All the fear is gone.
Sell in May and go away bucked again. May was a stellar month for the record books in this “crash upwards for no reason” economy.
SPX swings keep swinging higher. With the continued flip-and-flops, wait for the breakdown before considering a bear move.
RUT out of the MACD-v danger zone. Clear range established. Waiting for the breakout before committing to a new swing trade.
BTC has been a darling – clear bear signal on the 4hr from daily range highs to range lows, multiple continuation setups along the way. Simples.
New month, first week full of red-flag news. ISM Monday. ADP and ISM Services Wednesday. NFP Friday.

We hit Friday up but still sluggish. The “markets only go up” run while frustrating will eventually come to an end. I don’t believe we’ll see a complete market collapse – but a consolidation wouldn’t be unrealistic.
On a personal note I would like to see a corrective move 5-10% simply because the market needs to reset itself. The price behaviour on most of the time frames is horrendous. Very scrappy.
SPX swings flipped bullish and back to bearish just as quick. Kept my bear swing, will likely roll it today if we don’t get a down move. Lazy more than anything.
RUT still in avoid mode due to the MACD-v reading. Gliding into a BBW pinch / range – waiting for the breakout makes sense.
BTC continues its down move. Now in breakout mode looking for a push to 70.5k as the breakout target.
Last Friday of the month – can be a little scrappy.

Struggling rally on the stock indexes. Prices grinding higher but VIX remains elevated – there’s fear ready to hedge or unload on a hair trigger’s notice.
More strikes overnight. The same stock indexes don’t seem bothered one way or the other. Conditioned to ignore it now. It’s old news.
Oil “jumped 3%” per the talking heads. In context it hasn’t even cleared yesterday’s high-to-low range. Non-news dressed as news.
BTC being kicked in the shins. Still bearish from the larger range highs targeting the range lows. Regular as clockwork.
SPX grinding sideways with the Bollinger Bands pinching. RUT has finally exited the bull extreme but signals are whipsawing – wait 1-2 days for a clean read.

SPX and Dow did what we thought yesterday – gapped higher, traded lower. SPX slightly, Dow definitely.
Nazquack and Uncle Russ decided to hold hands overnight and skip through the meadows of new all-time highs. NQ premarket already past its NATH. RTY past hers.
New SPX bear swing printed at Tuesday’s close but %R extreme says continuation. RUT bear setup ignored – MACD-v in bullish extreme is a continuation signal under the updated rules.
Oil is right on the cusp of a range reversal or a breakout. Exhaustion bar at the range low could be nullified – $80 if the channel breaks, $104 to $115 if the range holds.
BTC compressed between the VWAPs. 75K is the line. Below it, $72K looms. The H&S read from yesterday now muddied – this is why you don’t get married to pattern names.

All four stock indexes now in sync on the charts. Premarket gap higher across the board, futures pushing for new all-time highs.
SPX and RUT both printed bear swing setups at Friday’s close. The gap higher in premarket could void both swings or set up a profitable retest.
7,500 is the GEX anchor. Massive call gamma node. Dealers may defend the level as price pushes back from any gap higher.
Brent down 9% on the month. Hormuz still closed. Third consecutive session of oil pricing the peace deal that has not been signed.
BTC finding support at the longer-term anchored VWAP. Possible inverted head and shoulders developing.

Markets closed Monday for Memorial Day. Friday’s records stand for 72 hours: Dow 50,579, S&P 7,473, Nasdaq 26,344. Tuesday inherits the full weekend gap.
Trump declared Saturday an Iran “framework” deal, including Hormuz reopening and sanctions relief. Tehran has not formally signed. Sunday’s strait count: 21 versus 60 norm.
Nvidia’s May 20 print still anchors the AI tape. $81.6B revenue, $80B buyback, Q2 guide $91B assumed zero China revenue. Any export thaw is pure upside.
Bitcoin near $80K through the weekend. ETF inflows positive five weeks running. 30-year yield at 5.20% cycle high keeps duration-sensitive risk on a short leash.
Thursday at 08:30 ET: April PCE plus Q1 GDP second estimate, Warsh’s first data print. Q2 PCE consensus already at 4.5%, CPI projected at 6.0%.