The bear is back on – price finally challenging the range held since last September/October – the next breakout and down is in play
Trump’s Hormuz ultimatum expires tonight at 7:44pm ET – Tehran’s response: “strike electricity, we strike electricity” – no compliance signals anywhere
SPX swings remain bearish – RUT Friday bull TnT was on the last bar, impossible to execute – gap down today keeps the bear case intact
SpotGamma: $1.4 trillion in delta notional expired Friday, the market’s shock absorber is gone, realised vol has room to catch up with implied
Just like that, the bear scare is off the table – sideways movement, tumbleweed, and fine – let’s be bullish
This is 2007/08 all over again – reality being ignored while the market grinds – until one day it isn’t
Triple Witching today – volume surges, swings get violent, every move gets amplified – sloppy and fun
SPX and RUT both bullish again on TnT with ADD at extreme lows and MACDv at extremes – the setup for a push higher is there
FOMC held, dot plot raised inflation to 2.7%, one cut pencilled, seven members see zero cuts – markets threw the teddy out the pram
South Pars struck overnight – world’s largest natural gas reserve – Brent spiked to $109, up 80% since February 28
Both SPX and RUT tagged bullish briefly on Wednesday then flipped back bearish in under an hour – the PFZ flip was the entry signal
1 and done on both instruments – not aggressively hunting entries on FOMC day was the right call – the setup is the setup
FOMC today – hold 95%+ priced – dot plot drops simultaneously at 2pm – Powell 2:30pm – June cut odds collapsed from 56% to 23% – every word matters
Price attempting to push higher off those lows – VIX back inside its channel – fear calming – still inside the larger range though
TnT bear signals on both SPX and RUT could flip with a push above the PFZ levels – overnight futures showing rallies but cash flagging a bear setup – direction confirmed at the open
PPI drops at 8:30am ET before all of this – any upside hardens the stagflation case and complicates Powell immediately
Monday’s broad recovery across all 11 sectors is already gone – Iran struck a UAE gas field overnight and Brent reloaded back above $100
SPX and RUT both cleaner on 30-period BBs – declining VWAP holding as ceiling on both – RUT fired a fresh bear setup and skipped the bull entirely
The late session spike yesterday was a fake tariff pause rumour – White House called it “fake news” – markets gave back everything and then some
FOMC today and Wednesday – hold is 95% priced – dot plot and Powell’s every word on Wednesday are the actual trade
Overnight futures up slightly – bulls and bears can battle this one out – anyone’s game at the open
GEX all negative with key levels at 6,700 and 6,600 – gap up to 6,650 and trade down to 6,600 fits the current read
Nvidia GTC today, Jensen Huang keynotes at 2pm ET – markets need a tech catalyst and today delivers one
FOMC Wednesday is the real pivot – dot plot revision matters more than the hold itself