WSJ dropped a de-escalation report overnight — Trump willing to end the Iran campaign — futures loved it instantly — buy the rumour, sell the news is playing out almost daily with Trump’s pumps and dumps
Quarter from hell closes today — S&P -7% Q1, worst since 2022, 14th worst start in history — fewer than 20% of S&P 500 names above their 50-day MA
Price action today looks similar to yesterday — gap higher, trade lower — negative gamma still dominates — VIX still elevated, sell-off still being priced in
SPX bearish at MACD-v extremes but ES futures showing the extreme has reset — range developing, not a crash setup — all indexes pushing to new lows outside the Sept/Oct range
Premium Poppers absolutely smashed it yesterday — 5 from 5 — 1st BO, Lazy, VWAP flop, VWAP retest on SPX, two clean RUT trades

For a change, no huge surprises over the weekend -though the Houthis entering the fight, WTI breaking $100, and Moody’s hitting 49% is a relative statement
Overnight futures showing a little bull push -VIX at 31 suggests the bears reclaim it at the open
Both SPX and RUT in a bearish posture -but both MACDs are at extremes -a reset or sideways move expected before the next leg
GEX has upper and lower boundaries between 6,400 and 6,300 -volatility moves similar to last week remain likely
Oil was very kind on the small account challenge last week -looking set up for more interesting setups this week / Gold developing a lovely V-Entry pattern

Trump extended the strike deadline to April 6 – ten more days – Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed Hormuz stays closed – embarrassing to watch
Thursday brutal: S&P -1.74%, Nasdaq worst session since the war began, Meta -7.9%, tech wrecked, energy won – pre-market recovering modestly but already popping and dropping
SPX officially bearish and broken out of the mid-week range – GEX had 6,600 as the ceiling all week, now all eyes on 6,400
RUT officially back bearish, broken back into the range – target pending – recent history suggests a cluster f**k after hours and over the weekend
Poppers yesterday: 1st BOs crapped out, nearly went full tilt on the RUT reversal, cup of tea, ear lobes rubbed, woosaaaah – came back, VWAP Flops, 3rd BO, VWAP retest – very profitable day

Iran reviewed the 15-point plan overnight and called it non-viable – counter-demand is sovereign control of Hormuz – non-starter
Brent back to $104, S&P futures -0.6%, 82nd Airborne deploying, Kuwait airport burning – the clock expires Saturday
SPX bearish and flatlining – gap down at open likely – GEX has 6,600 and 6,500 as the pivotal levels – price ran up, now likely to run down
RUT attempted the bullish range break this week – gap lower back into the range most likely – bear target around 2,470
Yesterday’s poppers: IV jumping triggered stops twice on expansion with favourable slippage – 2 re-entries, position sizing adjusted – RUT one Lazy Popper via MACDv entry – overall still very profitable

Iran 15-point peace plan via Pakistan leaked overnight – futures loved it, Tehran denied it, nobody knows who to believe
Oil down 4.7% to $99.55 – pop could push us toward the 6,600 GEX put level before the fade toward 6,500
Negative GEX environment continues – jumpy jittery price action is the feature, not the bug
MACD-v reporting absolutely no momentum anywhere – slight bear bias on SPX, no bias on RUT grinding sideways in the prior range zone
Premium Poppers back on top form Tuesday – one annoying stop trigger that came back as a small gain, rest of the day was killer

The TACO returned Monday – “VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS” – Iran denied any talks existed – markets ripped then consolidated
Did nothing Monday and came out the other side with the TnT bearish again – no harm no foul – if in doubt, do nowt
Both SPX and RUT have fresh bearish setups on 30 min / 30 periods – back to the business at hand
5-day clock expires Saturday – the threat machine can reload for the weekend – we’ve seen this movie before