The Fed raises rates today, a day after the Treasury’s 20-year sale drew a record-low foreign share. We try to work out which problem a quarter point actually addresses.

The index futures rolled overnight, so anyone looking at a continuous contract this morning saw a huge gap up that never happened. The ETF extended hours tell the real story, which is a market selling off. Inside: SPX filling the gap on the rally and likely opening outside the range, RUT dropping and pausing with the next leg starting overnight, Bitcoin eyeing a range low break, and a VIX holding above 16 for a third day.

New week, markets gapping down 50ish in the premarket and holding the lows, and the Nasdaq out in front of the charge after AI got a clobbering over the weekend from the AI people themselves. Inside: the first time price has not reached the upper channel boundary before turning lower, a VIX up 12.49%, free space below RUT all the way to 2,800, and Bitcoin’s bear and bull zones now marked up.

Thursday’s news moved price lower exactly as expected, and Friday brings another one. Inside: a V pattern entry sitting at the SPX range lows for the umpteenth time, futures up around 40 points ahead of the 8:30 release, a VIX that isn’t falling nearly as fast as the S&P is rising, crude sat exactly on 100, and a Popper day that was effectively finished before the US had opened.

Uncle Russ has broken out of the smaller range and 2,900 to 2,920 is now the support that decides the next move. Inside: SPX still running upper range to lower with bear pulse bars, Bitcoin going nowhere with no conviction, a Popper day of a 1DTE, a premarket continuation and one 3rd BO loss, and the biggest Wall of Wins in a fortnight.

Six billion dollars of official demand landed on the long end and yields rose through it. The thirty-year declined to confirm. We work out which instrument was actually doing the pricing.