Markets closed Monday for Memorial Day. Friday’s records stand for 72 hours: Dow 50,579, S&P 7,473, Nasdaq 26,344. Tuesday inherits the full weekend gap.
Trump declared Saturday an Iran “framework” deal, including Hormuz reopening and sanctions relief. Tehran has not formally signed. Sunday’s strait count: 21 versus 60 norm.
Nvidia’s May 20 print still anchors the AI tape. $81.6B revenue, $80B buyback, Q2 guide $91B assumed zero China revenue. Any export thaw is pure upside.
Bitcoin near $80K through the weekend. ETF inflows positive five weeks running. 30-year yield at 5.20% cycle high keeps duration-sensitive risk on a short leash.
Thursday at 08:30 ET: April PCE plus Q1 GDP second estimate, Warsh’s first data print. Q2 PCE consensus already at 4.5%, CPI projected at 6.0%.
ES sits roughly 50 points off NATHs in the premarket. Uncle Dow on the doorstep of new all-time highs. The April rally lows pop-and-confirm setup is ticks from triggering.
SPX swing still pushing bullish. Another BB upper-band tag. No pulse bars in sight – the lack of conviction is the tell.
RUT remains the charting darling. Bullish TnT swing active, %R in the bullish extreme, MACD-v at the bullish extreme suggesting a wee bit more to the move.
Three Nvidia beats. Three Nvidia sells. The AI bellwether has quietly stopped behaving like a bellwether.
BTC continues to dither. The bull setup is looking more like a bear flag – the setup is still active but the question is whether to kill it early.
Wall Street ripped 1.08% on a peace treaty that does not exist. Hormuz still closed. Week thirteen.
Walmart reports premarket. The market wants rising sales AND absorbed tariff costs. Pick one.
SPX bullish at swing but touched the lower BB without a bullish pulse bar. The lower-high read is on the table.
RUT bull swing continues. Bear TnT was set up but the trigger never fired. MACD-v at momentum extreme – a pause is likely.
BTC turned around after hitting bear swing target. Bear trend exited on %R, MACD-v turned bullish. Nice momentum increase. Push into the %R bullish extreme could see a return to recent highs.
Markets holding their breath since Monday – Iran strike on standby, Tuesday rally on standby, Nvidia decides tonight what gets to breathe again
FOMC minutes release today from Powell’s last meeting – six days after he stopped being Fed Chair, Warsh reads them anyway
Thirty-year touched 5.19% – the bond rout is steady, the equity bid did not blink
SPX bullish swing intact but the Bollinger Band width is compressing – not pinched yet, but close enough to start thinking about a consolidation opportunity
RUT looking far more interesting – bullish TnT setup, exiting the bearish MACD-v extreme, V-entry pullback above 2,765 providing add-in opportunities
SPX system bullish, no TnT yet. The trade is a bull-swing failure if it triggers.
RUT bear swing active. Price working from 2,854.67 toward new target 2,767.8.
BTC moved through Target 1 at $76,459.65. Heading toward Target 2 at $72,500. %R still in trend.
Two losing sessions across SPX and NazQuack, third potentially overnight. Multi-day sell-off finally arrived.
SPX -1.24% Friday / NazQuack -1.54% / VIX +6.78% to 18.43 / 10Y +13.6bps to 4.595% / 30Y cleared 5.12%
TnT system remains bullish, just missed a bear setup. A new bull tag failure flips the system to bearish.
RUT pushed back into the prior range on the daily. The bear thesis needs to be considered.
BTC bear trend below minus 80 on percent R. MACD-v also bearish. A cat’s whisker from Target 1.