Tuesday’s exhaustion bar printed on framework cue. Why I’m not buying it yet.
GEX increasingly negative. ES down 80 as I type. Why the sell-off may not be done.
Bear targets hit across the board. RUT V-entry forming underneath.
Wed-Thu is the recovery window. CPI at 8:30 decides whether it opens.

Friday’s retracement done. Monday’s rally retracement pending. Why I’m sitting tight.
RUT V-entry at the range low. The trade I’d take. The trade I’m waiting on.
BTC’s slow-lazy rising range. Why this looks like the last bear flag.
CL punched the bear trigger. The $25 move below now possible.

Friday erased a trillion. The system had me sidelined for May. The wait paid off harder than Wile E Coyote chasing the Road Runner.
Four waits on four charts. Each setup armed. None firing yet.
Opinions are great. We all have one and we’re usually wrong. Rules pay the theta.
The historical post-NFP recovery starts 1-2 days after Wednesday. Until then, dead cat territory.

Today’s the day – will NFP turn the boing boing into zoom zoom or boom boom or even zoom boom. One thing is for certain: the yoyo’ing is making Wall Street bulls and bears dizzy.
NFP at 08:30. Forecasts spread 80,000 to 125,000. The 45,000-job gap is less a forecast than a shrug with a decimal point. ADP printed 122,000 Wednesday. Challenger logged 97,006 layoffs in May, worst since 2020.
The last labour read before Warsh’s first FOMC. The Fed chair who has stated his philosophy is to communicate less greets a market desperate for more.
SPX ranging-rassing-range. Shallow range. Downward range. Possibly Alan Rich’s old topping-pattern napkin sketch. Trade the breakouts.
RUT clean well-defined range. Bear swing held three minutes thirty-four seconds before taking off like a rocket. Rolled at close – back at upper end with bear pulse bars. New trade or in my case roll it. Keep the dream alive.
BTC chugging to the 60k target. Brief uptick attempt then back lower. Bears and institutional dumping keeping the bear train choo-choo’ing along.
CL right on the daily range lows, pausing on the 60min with a lovely range to play. Each-way: bull break back into the daily range up to $115. Bear break with potential to $75.
NFP first – then we see what happens when the dust settles after the opening bell.

Day 2 of show me the bear. Pre-market shows the moves already pushing below prior day’s low, and not just by a tick or two. Is the Almanac stat going to come to fruition this week? NFP on the horizon could be the catalyst that sets the tone for the month.
SPX TnT swing: bull momentum finally exhausted. %R extreme flipped from bullish to bearish. MACD-v showing increased bear momentum. Big question – 1-2 bear days then bulls wrestle back, or the real reversal? Bear break down and swing finally on.
RUT back below the range lows. Already bearish, holding the swing – as long as we stay here today the first swing win of the month is logged. Can also reload the swing.
BTC – woot woot – on a tear into the target zone given the big 60k round number. Bounce on profit-taking expected before anything else. Still have a really big target down at 50k from the Elliott Wave count made on Monday’s calls.
Oil pulled back to 95. The party invite I was waiting for.
Broadcom beat and fell 13%. CrowdStrike beat and fell 10%. The two reports summoned to confirm the AI rally turned up and resigned.
Strategy sold thirty-two Bitcoin. The never-sell firm sold. Analysts explained.
Overall – I may just get my neutral-to-bearish week still. Well done, stats.

The moves to new all-time highs are continuing but the momentum – in the form of the range of movement – is getting smaller. Conviction is getting weaker.
Aside from the Stock Trader’s Almanac, the move higher may well be happening as opposed to the resting week history suggests. We’re only on hump day so it still can stall in line with historical stats.
The main stock indexes continue to befuddle and stupify. One for the potter heads.
SPX: rising channel changing its angle of dangle. Stick with waiting for a breakout.
RUT: breakout turned out to be a false break. Holding the swing until Thursday before deciding. Range-high break = bull move. Range-low break = big picture range reversal on the daily.
BTC has fell out the apple tree missing all the branches on the way down. Looking for more shorts around 70k. Target 60k. Potential 50k. Alt-season die-hards will try the recovery story.
Oil pushing back into the prior range. Pullback to 95 would be a nice party invite.
Gold is middling and not interesting just yet.
GEX has huge bullish exposure but bear GEX sneaking in overnight – super tiny. Watching whether that increases or disappears.