Last Friday of Month Delivered Usual Shenanigans Across Multiple Instruments
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
What an end to the week – last Friday of the month too – and the usual shenanigans seemed to have happened with yoyo moves across multiple instruments. The systematic approach handled it all with mechanical precision whilst discretionary traders no doubt got whipsawed by the month-end nonsense.
Looking towards the new week, we face the end-of-month transitions and start-of-month news rounds. It could well be an interesting week to kick off the end of September and start of October properly.
Whilst I’m writing this on Sunday, I don’t expect Monday to be “Black” despite my best expectations for a September sell-off now coming to a polite but firm end. Roll on October – here we come!
The beauty of systematic trading? It doesn’t matter whether crash predictions materialise or market expectations prove wrong. The mechanical approach simply responds to what actually happens rather than what should happen.
Keep scrolling for the multi-market systematic updates…
SPX Market Briefing:
Friday’s month-end action provided the perfect reminder why systematic approaches trump emotional market timing every time.
Current Multi-Market Status:
- SPX/RUT: Both bullish into new week after Tag ‘n Turn from BB lows
- PFZ Zones: Remain intact for bear “flip” entries if systematic signals develop
- /CL Futures: Flat after pin bar rejection, expecting range re-entry assessment
SPX Tag ‘n Turn Execution:
SPX TnT did exactly what it’s designed to do – tagged and turned from the Bollinger Band low, reacted at Thursday’s close and gap level, and that’s when I decided to take the quick win and enjoy the weekend as planned in Friday’s morning briefing.
The systematic beauty lies in the mechanical execution. No emotional attachment to crash predictions, no overthinking September seasonality – simply following price action signals and taking profits when systematic targets align with weekend planning.
RUT Carbon Copy Playbook:
RUT delivered pretty much a carbon copy playbook and trading decisions. When systematic approaches work across multiple instruments simultaneously, it validates the mechanical framework rather than suggesting lucky timing.
Both indices are bullish coming into the new week, and I’ll look for new entry swings. Their respective PFZ zones remain intact for the “flip” should bear entries become systematically necessary.
Crude Oil Reality Check:
/CL crude oil futures had a short-lived breakout, and whilst we did have nice continuation initially, the clear pin bar rejection influenced my decision to go flat and take the small win for the weekend.
The daily chart followed the same pattern, and I’d expect a brief pause followed by a break back into the prior range as the likely next action. Time will tell, and I shall evaluate the next move with Asian session data on Monday.
Week Ahead Calendar:
The transition from September’s end to October’s beginning brings several systematic considerations:
- Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings (7.15M forecast vs 7.18M previous)
- Wednesday: ADP Employment, ISM Manufacturing PMI
- Thursday: Unemployment Claims
- Friday: Non-Farm Employment, Unemployment Rate, ISM Services PMI
Employment data dominance suggests potential volatility for Premium and Lazy Popper opportunities.
Today’s Systematic Plan:
- Cash Markets: Seek fresh swing entries on bullish SPX/RUT positioning
- Premium/Lazy Poppers: Await opening bell for fast action and theta collection
- /CL: Evaluate Asian session data for range re-entry assessment
The Premium Popper and Lazy Popper trades simply await the opening bell for fast action and lazy theta collection – as usual.
In Other News…
Month-end positioning whilst shutdown deadline looms
ES climbed +0.2% to 6,655 like Percy discovering the office actually restocked supplies before month-end chaos. Overnight range 6,645-6,665 tighter than Mac’s rationing strategy during budget approval season. NQ managed +0.3% whilst RTY sat flat because apparently small companies are practising emotional detachment. VIX at 13.8 signals anxiety levels somewhere between “mild concern about government functioning” and “forgot to file expense reports before deadline.”
September defied historical patterns spectacularly
Institutional portfolio adjustments favouring October positioning as September defied historical 4.2% average decline like Wallie defying productivity expectations. Technology showing relative strength on AI optimism whilst energy maintains 6% quarter-to-date gains because apparently both computer chips and black gold can win simultaneously. Healthcare steady despite pharmaceutical tariff concerns proving medical stocks have surprisingly strong constitutions.
Earnings calendar produces cruise ship optimism
Light calendar with Carnival reporting better-than-expected Q3 results because apparently people still want floating hotel holidays during economic uncertainty. Nike reports Thursday facing competitive environment after Lululemon downgraded to hold, proving athletic wear companies can’t all win the fitness fashion race. Month-end window dressing creating artificial demand patterns benefiting recent winners like makeup covering portfolio blemishes.
Cross-asset momentum defies political chaos
Risk-on sentiment persisting despite political uncertainty and cryptocurrency weakness proving markets can ignore reality temporarily. Gold retreating 1.2% from $2,670 highs whilst Treasury yields stable because even precious metals need occasional rest. Argentina rallying 6.5% on US support pledge, demonstrating that international financial assistance still moves markets faster than domestic policy coherence.
-Hazel
Rumour Has It…
Breaking from the Financial Nuts newsroom: Percy was discovered arranging his desk pigeons in “Month-End Shenanigan Formation” whilst claiming they had “predicted the exact yoyo movement patterns through coordinated end-of-month cooing analysis.”
Hazel was spotted updating her “September-to-October Transition Protocols” whilst simultaneously preparing “Crash Season Expectation Management” procedures for when markets don’t crash on schedule.
Mac raised his Sunday whisky and declared, “My dear colleagues, when systematic approaches work regardless of seasonal expectations, crash predictions become delightfully irrelevant!”
Kash was livestreaming about “month-end shenanigans being basically like DeFi liquidity farming but with actual systematic positioning during calendar transitions,” whilst Wallie just grumbled, “In my day, October meant proper crashes! None of this polite ending nonsense!”
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
J-Com: The $3 Billion Typo That Made Millionaires
In 2005, a Japanese trader tried to sell 1 share for ¥610,000 but accidentally sold 610,000 shares for ¥1 each. Oops became “Oh damn!”
This is the story of how one fat finger created instant millionaires and instant therapy candidates. A Mizuho Securities trader meant to sell 1 share of J-Com Co. for ¥610,000 (about $6,400), but instead sold 610,000 shares for ¥1 each.
That’s like trying to sell one car and accidentally putting your entire car dealership on Craigslist for $1 total. The order was for 42 times more shares than the company had outstanding—basically selling shares that didn’t exist for a company that wasn’t worth selling. Sharp-eyed traders like Takashi Kotegawa (our ramen-eating hero) spotted the error and bought up thousands of shares at rock-bottom prices.
When the dust settled, Kotegawa made $20 million in about 16 minutes, while Mizuho lost their entire quarterly profit.
The moral of the story: double-check your zeros, and maybe invest in better keyboards.
One comma can be the difference between early retirement and early unemployment! ♂️
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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