Monday’s Decision To Stand Aside And Not Get Carried Away Was Right – Mixed Outcome Net Loss Avoided
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Monday’s decision to stand aside and not get carried away was – for me – especially on the short term trades – as there would have been a mixed outcome and a net loss for the day.
So a penny saved is a penny earned.
The narrow ranging day didn’t come to pass which I’m ok with – the decision to stand aside is more important and with a little hindsight – the right one.
The overall bear move from the daily range highs to lows is playing out nicely and the futures trades are now looking healthy.
The usual TnT trades less so as we’re about to flip from bullish back to bearish on SPX with RUT having already flipped me off.
While the in and out setups can be frustrating – it’s better to have a small loss now and get on the right direction rather than hold and hope.
Small loss. Right direction. Better than big loss wrong direction.
Keep scrolling for the bear move analysis…
Stand Aside Vindicated. Bear Move Healthy. TnT Flipping. Small Loss Over Hold And Hope.
SPX Market Briefing:
Tuesday November reviews Monday’s stand-aside decision vindicated (would have been mixed outcome net loss avoided creating penny-saved-penny-earned situation), narrow range didn’t materialise but decision more important with hindsight confirming right call, overall bear move from daily range highs to lows playing out nicely (futures trades now looking healthy), TnT trades flipping (SPX about to flip bullish back to bearish, RUT already flipped bearish), in-and-out setups frustrating but small loss now better than hold-and-hope for wrong direction.
Current Multi-Market Status:
- ES: 6675.00, bear move continuing
- RTY: 2339.4, already flipped bearish
- YM: 46,538, down from NATHs
- NQ: 24,803.00, continuing decline
- CL: $59.68, below $60 again
- GC: $4037.8, pulling back further
- VIX: 23.22, elevated volatility
- DXY: 99.531, dollar strength
Stand Aside Vindicated – Penny Saved
Monday’s decision to stand aside and not get carried away was – for me – especially on the short term trades – as there would have been a mixed outcome and a net loss for the day.
Monday’s assessment: Narrow range expected, theta collection mode.
Monday’s reality: Not narrow, would have produced losses.
Standing aside = avoiding net loss day.
So a penny saved is a penny earned.
Avoiding $X loss = earning $X profit. Same result on P/L.
The narrow ranging day didn’t come to pass which I’m ok with – the decision to stand aside is more important and with a little hindsight – the right one.
Wrong on narrow range call. Right on stand aside decision. Outcome: Preserved capital. That’s what matters.
Current Status: Stand aside vindicated, penny saved penny earned
Bear Move Playing Out – Futures Healthy
The overall bear move from the daily range highs to lows is playing out nicely and the futures trades are now looking healthy.
Daily range: Highs tested, now moving to lows.
ES: 6675.00 down from 6900+ highs.
RTY: 2339.4 down from 2540 highs.
Bear move in progress. Futures positions benefiting. Trades now healthy after patience.
This is why systematic traders wait for confirmation rather than predicting reversals. Bear move confirmed. Now riding.
Current Status: Bear move from range highs to lows, futures trades healthy
TnT Flipping – SPX About To, RUT Already Did
The usual TnT trades less so as we’re about to flip from bullish back to bearish on SPX with RUT having already flipped me off.
SPX TnT: Currently bullish above 6660.02. Price at 6672.42. About to flip bearish if breaks below.
RUT TnT: Already flipped bearish below 2345.1. Price at 2341.38. Bearish confirmed.
Uncle Russell led the flip. SPX following. TnT mechanical rules doing their job – identifying when direction changes.
Current Status: RUT TnT flipped bearish, SPX TnT about to flip
Small Loss Now > Hold And Hope
While the in and out setups can be frustrating – it’s better to have a small loss now and get on the right direction rather than hold and hope.
In and out = frustrating. Multiple small losses as direction whipsaws. Feels like getting chopped up.
But: Small loss now with correct new direction beats big loss holding wrong direction hoping it comes back.
Hold and hope = amateur hour. Small loss and reposition = systematic discipline.
The frustration is temporary. The capital preservation is permanent.
Current Status: Small loss now beats hold and hope, systematic discipline over emotion
In Other News…
S&P Breaks 138-Session Streak By Breaking
Second-longest run this century ends. Markets celebrate Buffett’s Google timing whilst everything else burns.
S&P broke below 50-day MA Monday for first time in 138 sessions—second-longest streak this century—proving all good things end including technical supports. Dow plunged 557 points extending three-day losing streak as VIX surged to 23.16 (April highs) whilst rate cut odds collapsed from 90%+ to 40% in one month. Alphabet rose 5% on Buffett validation, Tesla gained 3% “bucking trend” because Elon magic apparently immune to gravity.
When Records Break Downward
Technology led massacre with XLK -1.2%, Financials -1.5%, Energy -1.3% as everything correlated toward zero. Nvidia fell 2% ahead of Wednesday earnings where options price 7-8% move in either direction proving markets have no idea which way but certain it’s violent. Crypto correlation with tech hit three-year high amplifying spillover because “uncorrelated asset class” marketing ended permanently this month.
Consumer Reality Check Week
Home Depot reports before bell expecting $3.84 EPS testing whether Americans still renovating kitchens during chaos. Walmart Thursday, Target Wednesday examine whether discount shopping replaces discretionary spending when VIX hits 23. Week tests consumer resilience against stretched valuations, collapsed rate hopes, and genuine uncertainty about whether economy soft-landing or hard-crashing.
☕ Hazel’s Take
138-session streak ends via breakdown, VIX spikes to April highs, rate cut odds collapse from 90% to 40%. When Buffett’s belated Google validation counts as only bright spot whilst everything correlates toward zero, probably acknowledging technical supports lasted longer than sentiment.
—Hazel, FinNuts
Rumour Has It…
Breaking from the Financial Nuts newsroom: Percy was discovered teaching his desk pigeons “Stand Aside Vindication Recognition Leading To Penny Saved Penny Earned Flying” whilst analysing Monday’s net loss avoidance and claiming they had mastered “Bear Move From Range Highs To Lows Advanced Cooing With TnT Flip Recognition And Small-Loss-Over-Hold-And-Hope Discipline.”
Hazel updated her crisis management protocols to include “Narrow Range Didn’t Materialise But Decision Was Right Recognition Emergency Procedures” alongside contingency plans for “Futures Now Healthy Integration With SPX-About-To-Flip-RUT-Already-Flipped Analysis And In-And-Out-Frustration-Management Protocols.”
Mac raised his Tuesday whisky and declared, “When standing aside avoids net loss day proving penny saved equals penny earned whilst bear move plays out and TnT prepares flip, small-loss-now-correct-direction becomes delightfully superior to hold-and-hope-wrong-direction!”
Kash attempted livestreaming about “penny saved being basically like DeFi gas fee optimisation but with actual capital preservation” but got distracted calculating whether TnT flip frustration counts as emotional damage or just systematic reality.
Wallie grumbled that in his day, bear moves meant “holding through pain rather than this modern small-loss-and-reposition behaviour with TnT flip terminology!”
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
The $138 Million Panic Button When markets last felt this scared, there was no “shutdown delay” excuse
The last time the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit 10 was June 2022 – when Luna collapsed and wiped $40 billion in 48 hours. Today’s reading marks only the fourth time in history the index has fallen this low. The previous three all preceded major rallies within 30 days.
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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