Post-Thanksgiving Wake Up To Pre-Market Sell-Off – Futures Down 0.5% To 1% Across 4 Main Indexes
Ahoy there, Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Well folks, it’s another new month post-Thanksgiving and we wake up to a little sell-off on the pre-market futures.
Nothing too serious but a little more than normal – between 0.5% and 1% across the 4 main indexes.
That new digital store of wealth BTC is holding up – no wait – that also shit the bed pushing past -5% at one point, and the day is barely started.
It looks like last week’s rally is shaping up to be a dead cat bounce and we could see some further bear moves there.
Back on the indexes we can still see that pesky consolidation we have been discussing for weeks and has not broken.
Sure the boundaries have been tested and as we are near the upper boundary levels, with nothing new developing on the horizon, then the line of least resistance appears to be back down again.
On my usual swing setups SPX is still bullish but with the overnight futures down – we could be gapping down through my failure point to flip back to bearish below 6785.
Over on RUT there is a little more wiggle room by comparison but below 2460 will flip it back to the bear side of things.
We also have a full round of news for the first time since the shutdown, so it’s gonna be interesting to see how the market digests things as there looks like there will be no data released for that period and we jump straight to the most recent market and economic data.
NFP is going to be FUUuuN FUN FUN!
Keep scrolling for the consolidation breakdown and news calendar…
New Month Sell-Off. BTC Dead Cat. Consolidation Intact. NFP Week Incoming.
SPX Market Briefing:
Monday December opens post-Thanksgiving with pre-market sell-off (futures down 0.5%-1% across 4 main indexes, nothing too serious but more than normal),
BTC shit the bed pushing past -5% (last week’s rally shaping up as dead cat bounce, further bear moves likely), pesky consolidation still not broken after weeks of discussion (boundaries tested near upper levels, nothing new developing on horizon, line of least resistance back down),
SPX still bullish but overnight futures down (could gap through failure point to flip bearish below 6785),
RUT more wiggle room (below 2460 flips bearish), full round of news for first time since shutdown (no data for shutdown period, jumping straight to most recent, NFP going to be FUUuuN FUN FUN).
Current Multi-Market Status:
- SPX: Bullish Above (Flipped) 6810.29, PFZ 6786.26, Target Pending, current 6,849 – bearish below 6785
- RUT: Bullish Above (Flipped) 2463.62, PFZ 2459.29, Target Pending, current 2,500 – bearish below 2460
- ES: 6,823.75, down from highs
- YM: 47,554
- NQ: 25,317.50
- RTY: 2,486.7
- GC: 4,296.9
- CL: 59.68
- VIX: 17.93
- BTC/USD: 86,713.23, shit the bed -5%+
New Month Sell-Off
Well folks, it’s another new month post-Thanksgiving and we wake up to a little sell-off on the pre-market futures.
December 1st. New month. Futures red. Classic.
Nothing too serious but a little more than normal – between 0.5% and 1% across the 4 main indexes.
ES, YM, NQ, RTY – all showing the same pattern. Red across the board but not panic territory.
Current Status: Pre-market sell-off 0.5%-1%, nothing too serious
BTC Dead Cat Bounce
That new digital store of wealth BTC is holding up – no wait – that shit the bed pushing past -5% at one point, and the day is barely started.
Digital gold? More like digital anvil this morning. Down hard.
It looks like last week’s rally is shaping up to be a dead cat bounce and we could see some further bear moves there.
When the bounce doesn’t hold, you know what’s coming. More downside.
Current Status: BTC dead cat bounce confirmed, further bear moves likely
Pesky Consolidation Continues
Back on the indexes we can still see that pesky consolidation we have been discussing for weeks and has not broken.
Same consolidation. Same range. Same discussion. Weeks now.
Sure the boundaries have been tested and as we are near the upper boundary levels, with nothing new developing on the horizon, then the line of least resistance appears to be back down again.
Upper boundary tested. Nothing new. Path of least resistance = down.
Current Status: Consolidation intact, line of least resistance back down
SPX Swing Setup
On my usual swing setups SPX is still bullish but with the overnight futures down – we could be gapping down through my failure point to flip back to bearish below 6785.
SPX TnT: Bullish Above 6810.29. PFZ 6786.26. Target Pending.
Failure point at 6785. Gap down through that = bearish flip.
Current Status: SPX bullish but watching 6785 for bearish flip
RUT Swing Setup
Over on RUT there is a little more wiggle room by comparison but below 2460 will flip it back to the bear side of things.
RUT TnT: Bullish Above 2463.62. PFZ 2459.29. Target Pending.
More wiggle room than SPX. But 2460 is the line in the sand.
Current Status: RUT bullish, more wiggle room, 2460 bearish flip level
News Week Incoming
We also have a full round of news for the first time since the shutdown, so it’s gonna be interesting to see how the market digests things as there looks like there will be no data for that period and we jump straight to the most recent market and economic data.
First proper news week since the shutdown. No data for the shutdown period. Jumping straight to fresh numbers.
NFP is going to be FUUuuN FUN FUN!
This week’s calendar:
- Mon Dec 1: ISM Manufacturing PMI 10am (Forecast 49.0, Previous 48.7)
- Wed Dec 3: ADP Non-Farm Employment 8:15am (Forecast 19K vs Previous 42K), ISM Services PMI 10am
- Thu Dec 4: Unemployment Claims 8:30am (Forecast 220K, Previous 216K)
- Fri Dec 5: Core PCE Price Index, UoM Consumer Sentiment, UoM Inflation Expectations
ADP forecast at 19K vs previous 42K. That’s a big drop if it comes in. Market will be watching.
Current Status: Full news week, NFP Friday, market digestion incoming
Expert Insights
The Observation: When consolidation refuses to break after weeks of testing boundaries and you’re sitting near the upper levels with no new catalyst on the horizon, the market tends to take the path of least resistance. That path points down.
The Fix: Don’t fight the consolidation. The boundaries have been tested. When nothing new develops to push through, systematic traders wait for the break or prepare for the fade. SPX below 6785 and RUT below 2460 flip the script to bearish. Those are your lines. Watch them. React to them. Don’t predict around them.
Until something new develops, the same thing is going to happen
– Phil N
In Other News…
December Opens With BOJ Speech Ruining Everything
One Japanese central banker speaks. Global markets immediately panic. Fed ends QT but nobody cares.
Futures slid as December opened with risk aversion after BOJ’s Ueda speech triggered overnight selling—proving one central banker’s comments in Tokyo still moves trillions globally. Fed ends quantitative tightening today freezing balance sheet at $6.57T but markets ignoring because yen carry trade unwind fears more exciting. November saw Nasdaq drop 1.5% snapping seven-month winning streak whilst value finally outperformed growth—rotation analysts predicted for three years arrives precisely as they stopped predicting it.
When Japanese Yields Hit 2008 Levels
Japanese 2-year yields reached 2008 highs—sixteen years of near-zero rates potentially ending—as BOJ divergence complicates global picture. Yen strengthening pressures carry trades everywhere because leveraged bets on cheap Japanese currency financing global speculation apparently matters. Markets discovering interconnected global finance means one speech in Tokyo creates December risk-off in New York.
November’s 1.5% Nasdaq Drop Ends Seven-Month Streak
Thanksgiving week rally rescued indices from deeper November losses but couldn’t prevent Nasdaq’s first monthly decline since April. AI valuation concerns triggered correction whilst investors now question whether spending billions on infrastructure eventually produces profits—revolutionary inquiry that somehow took two years to ask.
Fed Ends QT: Historical Parallel Nobody Trusts
Fed freezing balance sheet at $6.57T creates 2019 parallel when QT end preceded risk asset rally. But 2019 didn’t feature BOJ rate hike signals, carry trade unwind fears, and Japanese yields at levels unseen since iPhone launched. 85% December cut odds remain bullish but Ueda apparently more important than Powell today.
☕ Hazel’s Take
December opens with BOJ speech moving markets, Fed QT end ignored, yen carry trade fears dominating. When sixteen-year Japanese yield highs matter more than Fed balance sheet freezes, probably acknowledging global interconnection means nobody controls anything.
—Hazel, FinNuts
Rumour Has It…
The Financial Nuts team reports from the newsroom…
Percy’s been tracking the BTC chart since pre-dawn, muttering “dead cat bounce” repeatedly whilst crossing out his “digital store of wealth” notes. Three pages of calculations later, he’s concluded the cat is indeed dead.
Hazel’s been managing the “pesky consolidation” monitoring station for weeks now. “Same range. Same boundaries. Same discussion. I’ve named it Gerald. Gerald the consolidation. Gerald refuses to break.”
Mac labelled his Monday morning glass “DECEMBER SELL-OFF SPECIAL – CONTENTS: REALITY” whilst Kash ran the numbers on that ADP forecast drop from 42K to 19K. “That’s a 55% decline in jobs forecast. That’s not a dip. That’s a crater.”
Wallie summed it up from the grumpy corner: “New month, new sell-off, same consolidation. Wake me when something actually breaks.”
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
Fun Fact:
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
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